According to the survey, as ICE’s main contract exceeded the integer mark such as 70 cents/pound and 71 cents/pound, the quotation basis of Brazilian cotton, US cotton, Uzbek cotton, West African cotton and other cargo/bonded cotton prices increased again. Inquiries, signing contracts, and shipments have continued to be hot since early October; differences among cotton companies have weakened, and there are fewer traders holding goods for sale or closing orders than in the previous two weeks. They have made appointments at ports such as Qingdao, Zhangjiagang, and Shanghai. There is an endless stream of mainland cotton textile companies and middlemen looking at the goods, and the spot sales situation of foreign cotton is very good.
An international cotton company in Huangdao said that since early and mid-October, Brazilian cotton, US cotton, Indian cotton, etc. at the port have shown a situation of “both inbound and outbound”. On the one hand, due to the obvious increase and intensity of Zheng cotton, Higher than ICE, the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton has widened, and the competitiveness of foreign cotton quoted in US dollars such as ship cargo and bonded cotton has increased. Cotton textile companies that have a 1% quota or are about to receive a sliding tariff processing trade quota hurry up to sign contracts and purchase; while ports Most of the foreign cotton cleared through customs not only did not increase the basis (CF2101 + basis), but due to the surge in Zheng cotton, the expansion of traders’ profits, the significant appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar, and the acceleration of the listing of new cotton in the northern hemisphere, traders generally adopted the “high quotation, low transaction” “The strategy is quite attractive to domestic cotton companies; on the other hand, the shipment and delivery of US cotton, Indian cotton, Brazilian cotton, etc. were relatively active in September, and the current arrival and delivery volume continues to rebound compared with August/September. The characteristic of “large warehousing and fast warehousing” is outstanding. An international cotton merchant has judged that bonded + non-bonded cotton inventories at various ports in China have continued to decline recently (narrower than in previous weeks), and the total volume may be between 350,000 and 370,000 tons by late October. The proportion of US cotton inventories Further improve.
Although the weather in the main cotton-producing areas of the United States is very unfavorable (not only leading to harvest delays, but also the total production and quality of US cotton in 2020/21 are expected to decline), the proportion of net long positions of funds has increased significantly and the technical aspects are promising. Continuing the upward trend, ICE’s main contract has stabilized at 70 cents/pound and then moved to 73 cents/pound or even 75 cents/pound. The motivation for the test exists objectively. However, a large number of international cotton merchants and importing companies have considered that before November 3, the U.S. The probability that the fiscal stimulus plan will be ruined before the presidential election has greatly increased (financial markets may fluctuate significantly), China has contracted to import US cotton for 2020/21 for several consecutive weeks, and the second round of the COVID-19 outbreak in European and American countries will rebound the economy, trade, and consumption. As a result, the direction of ICE is unclear, risks are rising, and the willingness to sell and ship in stages is relatively strong. A trader believes that with the gradual issuance of 400,000 tons of sliding tariff processing trade quotas and the rapid launch of Xinjiang machine-picked cotton, Brazilian cotton, US cotton, Indian cotton, West African cotton, etc. will usher in the “last supper” of sales in 2020. , all cotton companies should seize this round of high prices and strong demand shipping opportunities. </p
