After the October holiday, the price of acrylonitrile continued to rise. Traders quoted higher prices, and manufacturers’ quotations followed suit. The price of acrylonitrile was traded at a high of 9,500 yuan/ton.
From a cost perspective, the domestic propylene price is around 7,500 yuan/ton, and the price and cost of acrylonitrile = 1.1 propylene + 2,500 = 10,750 yuan/ton. From a theoretical point of view, the factory’s cash flow is still at a loss. , but the factory actually produces and sells its own products, so the cost cannot be calculated according to the cost formula. From a cost perspective alone, acrylonitrile prices still have room to rise, but propylene has historically had less impact on cost reasons. After all, the acrylonitrile plant equipment is integrated and self-sufficient, and there is basically no need to purchase raw materials, so the actual cost pressure is small.
From a demand perspective, the output from January to August 2020 was 1.247 million tons, and the output in the same period last year was 1.168 million tons, an increase of 79,000 tons over the same period last year. However, due to the addition of a new set of Zhejiang Petrochemical this year 260,000 tons of acrylonitrile unit, so the increase in output is expected.
The import volume of propylene from January to August 2020 was 220,000 tons, and the import volume in the same period last year was 215,000 tons. The import volume this year has not changed much from last year.
Looking at export volume, acrylonitrile exports surged significantly in 2020. Due to saturated domestic demand, acrylonitrile factories actively expanded export sales. The export volume from January to August was 48,000 tons, far exceeding the 14,000 tons in the same period in 2019. Ton. The export market of acrylonitrile has been developed not long ago and is still in a period of sustained growth and has not yet entered a saturation period. Since the first export of 2,000 tons was realized in 2016, the year-on-year increase in export volume is completely within expectations, and there is still considerable room for growth in export volume in the next few years.
The summary data shows that the apparent demand from January to August 2020 was 1.419 million tons, and the apparent demand in the same period last year was 1.369 million tons. From January to August 2020, table demand was 50,000 tons compared with the same period last year. In fact, 50,000 tons is not too much. If we do not associate it with new production capacity, it can even be regarded as a normal fluctuation range.
The above compares the demand situation in the same period. Let’s take a look at the price comparison in the same period in 2020 and 2019:
As can be seen from the figure, the price of acrylonitrile from January to August 2020 Significantly lower than the same period in 2019, the average price from January to August 2020 was 8,173 yuan/ton, and the average price from January to August 2019 was 12,844 yuan/ton, a difference of 4,617 yuan/ton.
Comparing last year
Looking at the linkage between supply and demand and price trends, the apparent demand difference is only 50,000 tons, but the price difference is 4,617 yuan/ton. Comparing the data from 2018 to 2019, the apparent demand in 2019 was 2.165 million tons, and the apparent demand in 2018 was 1.988 million tons, a difference of 177,000 tons. The average price of acrylonitrile in 2019 was 15,758 yuan/ton, and the average price of acrylonitrile in 2018 was 12,358 yuan/ton, a difference of 3,400 yuan/ton.
Comparing the two sets of data, it can be seen that the impact of supply and demand on price is relatively intuitive. As demand enters the saturation period, the impact of supply and demand growth on price is an increasing curve. Of course, this is only a simple analysis based on two sets of data. The factors affecting the price of acrylonitrile are much more complicated than this, and the actual reference significance is of little significance. </p