Regarding reports that “a large number of overseas textile orders have poured into China, and the orders have been scheduled until May next year”, Cheng Weixiong, an independent analyst in the footwear and apparel industry, said helplessly: “It looks good on the surface, but in fact most of the iceberg is in the water. “Down”, and a reporter’s interview with foreign trade-related factories on October 16 showed that there is indeed a “return” of some orders in the textile industry. In addition to the “warming” of overseas orders, seasonal peak seasons, domestic demand and other reasons also affect the “climate” of orders.
However, after asking many factories, we learned that orders are at best scheduled for this year rather than “next May.” “. Most textile industry players are still worried about the lack of sustainability of the market, and from the perspective of the secondary market, the current “hype” is greater than the “fact”.
The market is booming
Some spinning enterprises in Shaoxing, Hangzhou and Jiaxing, Zhejiang Province
Recently, the China Cotton Textile Industry Association visited some spinning enterprises in Shaoxing, Hangzhou and Jiaxing, Zhejiang Province for investigation and research , understand the business operations and market conditions.
About the market: Enterprises reported that it began to improve after August, and sales were smooth in September and early October. Especially in recent years, sales have been booming and supply exceeds demand.
Shaoxing, Guangdong: Circular knitting machines are booming, and orders for cold-proof clothing fabrics continue to be hot!
The average startup rate is 71.81%. The operating rate of circular knitting machines in Shaoxing is 72.36%, which is an increase of 19.62% compared to the pre-holiday period and a year-on-year increase of 25.36%. At present, 70% of factories are operating at more than 80%, and a small number are lower. The operating rate of circular knitting machines in Guangdong has increased to around 70% month-on-month, and the mainstream operating rate is around 60-80%.
Near the Double Festival, circular knitting machines are booming, and orders for cold-proof clothing fabrics (German fleece fabrics, polar fleece, milk silk, etc.) are booming.
Most factories are still confident that orders will last until mid-November. In particular, downstream orders are mostly settled in cash in one go, and they have relatively ample funds to purchase raw materials such as polyester filament and cotton yarn. However, the shortage of raw materials such as cationic yarn and low-elastic yarn makes factories relatively cautious in signing orders, and continues to push up the price of polyester yarn. It is expected that the start-up of circular knitting machines in Shaoxing will be difficult to decline in the near future and will still remain at a relatively high level.
Shengze, Changxing, and Northern Jiangsu: air-jet looms The delivery deadline is urgent, and the rising tide of water-jet gray fabrics has lifted all boats
The average operating rate of air-jet looms is 71.52%. According to market research, market demand has continued to improve since the Golden Age, and both domestic and foreign orders have increased. In addition, cotton spinning raw materials have been rising in tandem recently, and their rapid rise has driven the replenishment mood of weaving mills and middlemen, and companies that are in a hurry to meet delivery deadlines are even more urgent. Taking into account the skyrocketing costs, in order to avoid aggravating the unprofitable situation of having orders, enterprises in various places have raised their quotations for gray fabrics accordingly, and inventory has been digested quickly.
The average operating rate of water-jet looms is 76.51%. Since the holiday, the water spraying industry in Shengze area has improved moderately, which is mainly reflected in cold-proof clothing fabrics, such as gallbladder fabric, T400, pongee, etc., which are relatively popular. On the basis of the continuous increase in polyester yarn, gray fabrics are also “rising.” Market consultation The shopping atmosphere is better than before the holiday. However, local factories are skeptical about the sustainability of orders in the future, and some factory inventories are still in a backlog, making it difficult to digest.
Haining, Changshu, Changle: Orders increased by 50% compared with September, and the schedule can be as early as early November
The average startup rate of warp knitting is 87.83%. It is understood that velvet winter cold-proof fabrics are outselling the goods, market demand is highly increased, domestic trade demand is rising linearly, and downstream clothing terminals are very enthusiastic about stocking up. During the National Day holiday, orders increased by about 50% compared with September, which is huge. Increased confidence in the textile industry.
The operating rate of most of them is at 80%, some are higher and some are at full capacity, and some are lower. The delivery time of this order is relatively tight, and the ordering time can be as early as November. A few high-end products have a relatively tight ordering time. It is relatively long. This order is mainly domestic trade orders on Double Eleven. Most of the raw material inventories are more than 1 month old, and some are more than 5 months old. We still need to pay attention to the actual shipments of Double Eleven orders and foreign trade later. Increase the situation.
The rebound in textile orders due to multiple influences has not been scheduled to “May next year”
Fengzhu Textile told reporters that it is “right” for a large number of overseas textile orders to flow into China, but specific data was not provided. Zhuochuang Information analyst An Guang said that the domestic loom operating load has increased from 77.2% on September 30 to 93.2% on October 15, and short-term demand has indeed improved significantly.
“But the scale of this wave of (overseas) order transfers is difficult to estimate. Our company’s Vietnam factory is operating normally.” A staff member of a listed company who did not want to be named told The reporter said that some European and American fast fashion brands have turned to handing over underwear orders to companies because their original OEMs were unable to start production, and the OEM categories have increased from socks to seamless underwear. He said that it probably started around the third quarter, and this situation is not uncommon in the industry.
The reporter also verified with a number of clothing OEMs with foreign trade qualifications in Guangzhou, Dongguan, Guangdong and Quanzhou, Fujian. The response was that�Affected by the epidemic, the operating conditions of many companies are not very ideal, and many companies have suffered serious losses. The risk of the capital chain of some companies breaking has increased sharply, making the atmosphere in all walks of life very tense. If the epidemic strikes back at the end of the year, companies will face a new round of production and work suspensions, which will make things worse for them. Response measures should be prepared in advance!
Based on the above factors, when the entire industry chain is out of stock, demand appears intensively, resulting in strong short-term market demand. As for the duration of this wave of market conditions, companies say it is difficult to judge. The final result depends on the market situation at the end of October, but they are generally not optimistic. In terms of raw materials, cotton and viscose prices have continued to rise since October, and polyester has also begun to show signs of rising prices recently. However, companies generally say that the rise lacks support from the general market and is judged to be a short-term phenomenon. Downstream weaving factories are still worried about this wave of market conditions and are worried that there will be a “sudden braking” phenomenon.
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