International oil prices first declined and then rose on Thursday. As of Thursday’s close, the NYMEX WTI crude oil futures December contract closed at $40.64/barrel, an increase of 1.52%; the ICE Brent crude oil futures December contract closed at $42.46/barrel, an increase of 1.75%. It is understood that Saudi Arabia and Russian officials have recently discussed production capacity issues again. The market expects that OPEC+ oil-producing countries will not consider increasing production in the short term. After the meeting in early December, there is a high probability that the production reduction quota of 7.7 million barrels per day will remain unchanged.
Russian President Vladimir Putin said in a speech on Thursday that Russia sees no need to change the OPEC+ agreement and is open to delaying OPEC+ production increases. Putin also said that Russia is ready to further cut oil production if necessary, but that it is not necessary yet.
After experiencing the previous price decline, the domestic oil and fat sector has generally performed well since this week. During the daytime trading session on Thursday, the domestic oils and fats sector was among the top gainers. As of Thursday afternoon’s close, palm oil and soybean oil rose by more than 2%, and vegetable oil rose by more than 1%.
U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said on Thursday that although the Democratic Party and the White House are close to reaching an anti-epidemic stimulus agreement, writing and voting on the bill may take longer. Pelosi said talks with the Trump administration about the stimulus package are on a good track and will be ready to sign the stimulus bill soon, and is “almost” close to a stimulus deal, but warned that getting the package voted into law would become a The law will take time as she and the Trump administration try to iron out remaining issues.
The U.S. White House Chief of Staff Meadows said on Thursday that negotiations on the epidemic aid bill have entered a new stage and have begun to discuss technical language. Trump is willing to double down on the aid bill, including direct payments to households. The current size of the aid bill is $1.9 trillion. Trump already has Republican support for economic stimulus.
U.S. initial jobless claims data continues to improve
U.S. stocks yesterday Before the market opened, the United States released the latest initial jobless claims data. In the week ending October 17, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States recorded 787,000, which was expected to be 860,000. The previous value was revised from 898,000 to 842,000. In the week ending October 10, the number of people continuing to claim unemployment benefits in the United States recorded 8.373 million, which was the fourth consecutive week of decline and the first time it was below 10 million since the end of March. It was expected to be 9.5 million. The previous value was revised from 10.018 million to 939.7 Ten thousand.
The U.S. Department of Labor said California recorded the largest decrease in initial jobless claims last week, followed by Florida, Georgia, New York and Michigan.
U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said on Thursday that although the Democratic Party and the White House are close to reaching an anti-epidemic stimulus agreement, writing and voting on the bill may take longer. Pelosi said talks with the Trump administration about the stimulus package are on a good track and will be ready to sign the stimulus bill soon, and is “almost” close to a stimulus deal, but warned that getting the package voted into law would become a The law will take time as she and the Trump administration try to iron out remaining issues.
St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said that the Federal Reserve has determined that it will maintain low interest rates for a considerable period of time. The Federal Reserve is not confronting the market on the outlook for interest rates. The Federal Reserve’s policy The current situation is good, and we will need to consider how to implement QE policies in the future. Places that have tried negative interest rates have shown that negative interest rates may not be that effective.
International oil prices first fell and then rose.
International oil prices first fell and then rose on Thursday. Yang. As of Thursday’s close, the NYMEX WTI crude oil futures December contract closed at $40.64/barrel, an increase of 1.52%; the ICE Brent crude oil futures December contract closed at $42.46/barrel, an increase of 1.75%.
Russian President Vladimir Putin said in a speech on Thursday that Russia believed there was no need to change the OPEC+ agreement and was open to delaying OPEC+ production increases. Putin also said that Russia is ready to further cut oil production if necessary, but that it is not necessary yet.
In the view of Ma Chen, a researcher on Guangzhou Futures energy products, there are currently both long and short factors in the crude oil market, and international oil prices may continue to oscillate in the previous range in the short term. “On the supply side, OPEC crude oil production decreased by 50,000 barrels per day in September to 24.11 million barrels per day, and the production reduction implementation rate was more than 102%. Recently, Saudi Arabia and Russian officials have discussed production capacity issues again. It is expected that OPEC+ oil-producing countries will not consider it in the short term. To increase production, the market predicts that the production cut of 7.7 million barrels per day will most likely remain unchanged after the meeting in early December. Libya’s production capacity has recovered positively. After the reopening of ports and oil fields, Libyan crude oil production has climbed to 500,000 barrels per day. Production capacity is expected to double by the end of next year. At the $40/barrel level, supply from various oil-producing countries is gradually recovering, and previously delayed production projects are also in progress. Although global oil inventories are still being depleted, U.S. crude oil continues to be depleted. , but the latest data shows an increase in gasoline inventories, which means that the outlook for oil consumption is still unpredictable.” Ma Chen said.
In terms of demand, Ma Chen said that the autumn maintenance of refineries coexists with the second outbreak of the epidemic. Affected by the La Nina climate, the demand for heating oil this winter will be higher than in previous years, but the demand for oil The boost may be limited, with uncertainties coming from the U.S. presidential election.
“中�In terms of the market, China’s port congestion has been eased and onshore storage capacity has also been expanded, but the overall performance of SC crude oil is still weaker than the external market. ” She believes that, on the one hand, because the number of domestic SC crude oil futures warehouse receipts is still large, buyers are not willing to accept the warehouse receipts, which has suppressed the front-month contracts; on the other hand, the current RMB is on an appreciation trend, giving SCs priced in RMB Crude oil prices will have an impact.
“Investors are advised to closely observe the trend of the internal and external price differences. When the internal and external price differences continue to widen and are enough to cover freight costs, they can go long on the internal and external price differences. . ” Ma Chen said.
The oil and fat sector has experienced an overall upward trend
After the previous price decline, the domestic oils and fats sector has generally performed well this week. During Thursday’s day trading session, the domestic oils and fats sector was among the top gainers. As of Thursday afternoon’s close, palm oil and soybean oil rose by more than 2%, and rapeseed oil rose by more than 1%. %.
“At present, the fundamental situation of domestic vegetable oil has not changed significantly, and the overall situation is still in an upward trend. Zhu Yao, a fat researcher at Founder mid-term futures, said that the overall decline in oil prices in the early stage was mainly affected by the correction in U.S. soybean prices. Due to the arrival of rains in the main soybean-producing areas of Brazil, U.S. soybean prices suffered profit-taking before, but the current U.S. soybean sales The progress remains good, and the existing net sales are enough to keep the price of U.S. soybeans above 1,050 cents/bushel. It is expected that without a major decline in U.S. soybean export data, the price of U.S. soybeans will still move towards 1,100 cents/bushel. Upward.
As for each variety, Zhu Yao believes that among the three major domestic vegetable oils, palm oil still has the weakest fundamentals. However, the recent positive export data has made palm oil prices also lower. It has received strong support. According to reports, the latest statistics from a shipping company show that Malaysia’s palm oil exports increased by about 4% month-on-month from October 1 to 20.
” Positive short-term data has strengthened palm oil prices, but in the medium and long term, it still cannot become the core driver of overall vegetable oil price increases. “Looking ahead to the market outlook, Zhu Yao said that in the absence of a strong boost in crude oil prices, weak biodiesel consumption will continue to suppress the trend of palm oil prices next year. In the domestic market, soybean oil will still be the top three in the fourth quarter. The best-performing variety among oils and fats.
“The results of the U.S. election may bring certain fluctuations to the oils and fats market, but domestic soybean oil prices will still maintain an upward trend in the fourth quarter. This is mainly because domestic imported soybean and soybean oil stocks will continue to decline in the fourth quarter. “Zhu Yao further said that although China has increased its purchases of U.S. soybeans, overall, the supply of U.S. soybeans will be significantly smaller than Brazilian soybeans. At the same time, some imported soybeans will enter the state reserve inventory, and soybean oil stocks are expected to fall to 100 If the price of soybean oil is below 10,000 tons, the price of soybean oil will continue to rise. It is recommended to buy the soybean oil 2101 contract at low prices and hold it for a long time. The price of soybean oil is expected to reach its peak during the peak purchasing period before the Spring Festival.
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