Introduction: There has been an undercurrent in the PTA market recently, and good news about terminal demand has continued to come out. The price difference of raw material PX has recovered, and short-cycle PTA has been destocked. Despite the frequent news, the growth of the PTA market is still limited. With inventories remaining high, market sentiment remains cautious.
Market Overview:
Recently, the PTA market has experienced limited growth and slight fluctuations. From a cost perspective, overseas public health incidents remain severe, and the continued downturn in the global aviation industry has made the market worried about the future of fuel demand. In addition, the decline in U.S. commercial crude oil inventories is lower than expected, and international oil prices have declined slightly. The poor processing of raw material PX is expected to be repaired, but it is still at a low level, and the overall cost-end support is limited.
In terms of supply and demand, PTA Xinfengming Phase 2 was successfully put into operation, while Hengli Petrochemical Line 2 was overhauled and the supply side declined. In terms of demand, the production and sales of various polyester products were mediocre at the beginning of the week. Only some polyester companies were affected by low inventory in the middle of the week, and prices showed an upward trend. Production and sales showed a short-term improvement, and the overall sales were mediocre. There are no major fluctuations in the operation of the polyester plant, and the demand for PTA remains rigid. Taken together, there is no upward drive on the short-term cost side, and the continuity of downstream terminal orders still needs to be waited and seen.
Supply end: Hengli Petrochemical Line 2 was shut down for maintenance during the week. In addition, Xinfengming Phase 2 was successfully put into operation, operating at 50% load. According to Longzhong statistics (20201016-1022), PTA output is 922,100 tons. Hengli and Yizheng units are expected to restart next weekend, and Dushan Energy’s PTA unit is expected to be put into operation at half load on the 20th, with output expected to be 938,600 tons next week.
Demand side: In terms of polyester, early production reductions and maintenance factories restarted, such as Haixin, Saisheng, etc., coupled with the increase in daily output of the polyester industry brought about by the commissioning of new production capacity, the country Polyester output continued to increase during the week, with the overall increase slightly compared with last week. According to Longzhong Information statistics (20201016-1022), the weekly output of the polyester industry is 1.0936 million tons. There are limited changes in equipment expected next week, and the expected weekly output next week is 1.0969 million tons
Forecast:
Taken together, terminal demand still stimulates the market, and short-term polyester load expectations remain high; supply-side production and maintenance coexist, and periodic changes in supply and demand may affect the market, but the expectations from October to November Balanced; the cost side mainly fluctuates and lacks upward drive. Therefore, we believe that the short-term TA market is mainly volatile, with an operating range of 3350-3550 yuan/ton. </p