We are now at the peak period of cotton purchasing and processing in Xinjiang. In previous years, various research reports could be seen everywhere in the market, but some of them have disappeared this year. The reason is that wars have broken out in Xinjiang. Love has discouraged all observers. Although there are fewer research groups, the popularity of Xinjiang cotton has not diminished. The 2,000-point market price of Zheng cotton after the National Day has attracted much attention. Especially for cotton during the harvest season, changes in its output, quality, and price still have an impact on the market. Development plays an important role.
The cotton planting area has stabilized and the yield has increased slightly
As early as late August 2020, the National Cotton Market Monitoring System launched a nationwide special survey on cotton growth. The results showed that the new cotton yield in 2020 was 128.5 kg/mu, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%, and the total output was 5.868 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.4%. %, an increase of 1.0 percentage points from the survey results in June. Among them, the average yield in Xinjiang increased by 1.8% compared with June and a year-on-year increase of 3.6%. The output is expected to be 5.156 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.6%.
During this survey in northern and southern Xinjiang, we learned that the cotton planting area in northern and southern Xinjiang is basically stable this year. In some areas, the area has declined slightly due to the impact of regulatory policies. , but there are also areas with a slight increase in area. Overall, the area is relatively stable.
This year, the weather in Xinjiang is suitable for cotton growth, and output in both northern and southern Xinjiang has increased slightly. The results of this survey show that the average yield per mu in Xinjiang’s main cotton-producing areas has reached 400 kilograms, and even the yields per mu with low yields are more than 370 kilograms, which is a big change compared with last year. In some plots that were severely affected last year, the average yield per mu increased by more than 20% this year.
Cotton quality has declined and impurity content has increased
During this survey, it was found that the quality of cotton has declined this year. The increase in horse value is particularly obvious, which is of course related to the increase in temperature in the later growth period. In Northern Xinjiang, cotton indicators have dropped significantly regardless of the corps or local areas. A certain cotton planting farm in Wujiaqu City accounted for more than 80% of the “Double 28” indicators last year. This year, it is the opposite, and the indicator has dropped unexpectedly. According to the survey, the decline in quality is closely related to cotton cultivation. In order to increase production, cotton farmers have excessively pursued lint points, resulting in this year’s seed cotton being generally one to two lint points higher than last year. The clothing content and quality of seed cotton check and balance each other. If the clothing content is excessively pursued, the length and strength of the cotton fiber will inevitably decrease. In addition, the impurity content of cotton this year is high, which is closely related to the spraying of cotton defoliants. According to cotton farmers, defoliants are now basically sprayed by drones. Due to the spraying angle and intensity, the defoliation effect of the lower leaves of the cotton plant is poor. Of course, the increase in impurity content also pushes up the output to a certain extent.
Machine picking rates have generally increased and picking costs have dropped
During this Xinjiang-wide survey, the most obvious thing I felt was The increase in Xinjiang’s cotton machine harvesting rate, especially in southern Xinjiang, is surprising. In the past two years, the mechanical mining rate in northern Xinjiang has reached a very high level. The main change this year is the rapid replacement of machinery and equipment. In the past, cotton pickers were usually unloaded into the fields after picking, and then loaded into trucks and transported to the processing factory. This year, a picker that integrates picking and packaging appeared in Northern Xinjiang, which not only improved the efficiency of picking and transportation, but also reduced the “three problems” in the field. “Silk” is contaminated by impurities, and the selling price is 0.05-0.1 yuan/kg higher than that of traditional picking methods. The rate of machine picking in southern Xinjiang has increased significantly this year. On the road, you can see many cotton machines that have been picked in northern Xinjiang traveling long distances to southern Xinjiang, ready to show off their skills. Local people estimate that the overall machine-picked rate in southern Xinjiang may reach more than 60%. The original main production areas of hand-picked cotton have also switched to machine-picked cotton this year (the machine-picked fee in northern Xinjiang has been reduced to 100 yuan/mu, and the hand-picked cotton in southern Xinjiang The fee is 1.8 yuan/kg), which has a lot to do with this year’s epidemic. The COVID-19 epidemic has led to a decrease in the number of workers coming to Xinjiang to pick flowers. In addition, the cost advantage of machine picking is obvious. In order to catch up with the sales when the market is good, many growers use machines to pick flowers, which increases the speed of sales.
Seed cotton prices have risen sharply, and ginning production capacity has increased
Xinjiang’s seed cotton sales prices have performed well this year, with an average higher than last year The price is nearly 2 yuan/kg. Unlike the past where futures prices led the spot price trend, this year it is the spot price that leads the futures price movement. After the “National Day” holiday, Xinjiang’s cotton market ushered in a big change. The selling price of seed cotton changed every day, and some even changed three times a day. This was rarely seen in the previous purchase periods. The purchase price of machine-picked cotton reached a maximum of 7.5 yuan/kg. Hand-picked cotton once reached about 8.7 yuan/kg. However, with the pullback of Zheng Cotton, the spot price fell briefly. According to Xinjiang cotton enterprises, the large increase in purchase prices this year is closely related to the addition of more than 70 ginning production lines in Xinjiang. With more monks and less meat, the price of seed cotton has been raised step by step, and there is limited room for price decline in the future. However, some people in the cotton industry believe that this year’s price increase is related to the improvement in downstream consumption. This person believes that Xinjiang’s processing capacity also increased last year. The addition of dozens of ginning production lines alone is unlikely to lead to such high prices. It is also the low inventory of downstream companies and the improvement of the production situation that has boosted the price increase. Regardless of the reason, the rising price of seed cotton is an indisputable fact.
Textile enterprises increase operating rates and yarn orders are sufficient
According to the latest purchasing managers index (PMI) of the cotton textile industry, in September 2020 In March, the purchasing managers index (PMI) of the cotton textile industry was 50.86, the highest value this year, an increase of 3.3 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, the new order index, production volume, and operating rate all increased compared with the previous month, with an increase of 5.59, 0.9, and 1.09 percentage points respectively; the sales of finished products accelerated, and the cotton yarn inventory index decreased by 0.08 percentage points from the previous month; the demand for raw material procurement of textile enterprises increased. , the cotton inventory index increased by 11.66 percentage points from the previous month.
In the survey in Xinjiang, we found that the actual situation is consistent with the above data. A textile company in Xinjiang said that its orders are now scheduled until November, and the production and order-taking situation is good. Although the price of cotton yarn has also increased a lot due to the price of cotton, the increase compared with cotton is still small, and the low profit situation has not been achieved. Fundamental reversal. At present, the inventories of downstream enterprises are generally low. When cotton prices are not stable, enterprises dare not take orders in large quantities. The current production is mainly based on previous orders from old customers. In the later period, as the holiday consumption seasons such as “Double Eleven” and Christmas gradually come into effect, cotton yarn orders are expected to fall. Enterprises are worried that the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton is too large, which is not conducive to the export of downstream products and may also affect the increase in upstream cotton prices.
Just when the investigation was about to end, the epidemic broke out in Kashgar. Due to Xinjiang’s rapid response, nucleic acid tests have been carried out on all personnel in Kashgar. The epidemic has limited impact on cotton picking, sale and transportation in Xinjiang. As cotton picking in Xinjiang comes to an end, cotton prices for the new year are basically determined, and the core of future price increases and decreases will still be changes in consumption.
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