The national cotton market improved significantly in October, and futures and spot prices rose resonantly. The author believes that this round of cotton price rise is based on the continued rise in seed cotton prices, coupled with the partial recovery of downstream and foreign trade orders, achieving a collective price increase for cotton seeds, lint, cotton yarn, gray cloth, and fabrics throughout the entire industry chain. This is a key factor for the cotton textile industry. A collective upward repair of the value chain.
According to monitoring, as the epidemic situation gradually improves, the traditional demand peak season of “Golden Nine and Silver Ten” has arrived. In early September, cotton yarn started to bottom out and rebounded. In early September, the price of cotton yarn rose for the first time by 300-500 yuan/ton. The second wave of price increases in the second half of the month was 300-500 yuan/ton. Entering October, downstream demand showed obvious signs of improvement, and the increase in cotton yarn expanded to 3,000-4,000 yuan/ton in September and October. In addition, downstream gray fabrics, printing and dyeing links have also increased, the cotton industry chain has risen in resonance, and transactions have also improved significantly. On the one hand, this is due to the increase in orders from downstream companies during Double Eleven and Christmas and winter abroad. On the other hand, trading companies have increased their efforts to stock up amid rising prices.
Since the new cotton scale was opened, the purchase price of seed cotton has continued to rise as a whole. Only around September 25, the machine-picked cotton in Beijiang fell by 0.2 yuan/kg. However, as the purchase competition intensified, the price of seed cotton continued to rise again. rise. According to monitoring, the mainstream price of machine-picked cotton in Northern Xinjiang before the National Day was 5.7-5.8 yuan/kg, and rose to 6.6-7 yuan/kg on October 19, with some exceeding 7 yuan/kg. The mainstream price of hand-picked cotton in southern Xinjiang is 7.9-8.2 yuan/kg, with the highest price of hand-picked cotton in some areas reaching 8.5 yuan/kg. As the price of seed cotton rises, the cost of lint continues to increase. On October 19, the cost of machine-picked cotton in northern Xinjiang exceeded 15,000 yuan/ton, and the cost of hand-picked cotton in southern Xinjiang was around 16,000 yuan/ton.
Affected by the arrival of the traditional peak season and Double Eleven and Christmas, orders from cotton spinning companies continued to increase in October. Coupled with the rapid rise in raw material prices after the holidays, textile companies stopped accepting large orders. At present, small orders are generally scheduled to Mid to late November or even the end of November. In late October, Zheng cotton surged and fell, the enthusiasm for new order inquiries cooled down, and orders continued to fall in December. In addition, the United States has recently relaxed and delayed sanctions on my country’s Xinjiang cotton and its products. However, some trading companies are worried that Sino-US relations may still relapse, affecting the quality of textiles and clothing, and have placed concentrated short-term orders with my country. Some companies have reported that the Indian epidemic has affected the transfer of orders to my country, and the supply of knitted bedding exceeds demand. Some entrepreneurs have arranged their textile orders until the end of the year.
Taken together, with the recurrence of foreign epidemics, Zheng cotton has ushered in long-term profits and hedging funds after a short-term surge. It is expected that in the short term, under the background of high seed cotton costs and the recovery and improvement of downstream parts, cotton will Futures prices may continue to oscillate upward trend. In the medium term, with the end of Double Eleven orders and Christmas orders, under the pressure of centralized processing and centralized listing of new cotton, the upward pressure on cotton prices will gradually appear. </p
