Introduction: During the “Silver Ten” period, the textile industry is full of “surprises”. Each product has experienced a “surge” and then a “slump”. The chemical fiber raw material PTA has not escaped the second round of market prices.
Review the “story” of the “surge”
Before and after the National Day, terminals Textile demand outperformed expectations, driving a strong rebound across the entire industry chain. News such as “grey fabrics are being rushed out at all stalls”; “Indian orders are being transferred domestically”; “raw material prices are rising, printing and dyeing factories are increasing dyeing fees” and other news frequently appear in the market. However, after the short fiber futures were listed on October 12 and continued to rise by the limit, the chemical fiber raw material PTA also followed suit. Therefore, market sentiment was ignited to a certain extent. The main PTA contract 2101 reached a low of 3402 on September 30 and reached a high of 3660 on the 21st, with a high-low increase of 7.58%.
From the perspective of terminal demand, the terminal weaving operating rate increased rapidly in October, from 71% on September 30 to 81% on October 21, an overall increase of 10 percentage points, rapidly reaching Highs in 8 years. It also reflects the speed of recovery in PTA terminal demand. Textile factories are actively replenishing upstream polyester, and polyester factories are taking the opportunity to increase prices for shipments. Production and sales are relatively booming. The latest data shows that the comprehensive inventory of polyester filament is 16 days, the inventory of polyester staple fiber is -7.5 days, and the inventory of gray fabric is 34 days.
Review the “story” of the “slump”
End-use textile demand gradually weakened, driving the entire industry chain to plummet. After early price increases and destocking, the production and sales of downstream polyester and polyester chips have dropped significantly, and the sentiment towards polyester has cooled down. The “Silver Ten” market is coming to an end, and the demand side has gradually weakened. Recently, the market has shown a downward trend. At the same time, with the correction of international crude oil, the chemical sector has weakened as a whole, PTA has stopped rising and fell, and short fiber futures, which led the early rise, fell. More than 3%.
The commissioning of new production capacity is another violent attack on the decline of the PTA market
In the past two years, PTA has entered the peak period of production capacity expansion. After the new equipment is put into production this year, the supply of PTA There is consensus on the glut situation. Dushan Energy’s 2.2 million tons new device (of which 1.1 million tons) was put into operation on the 20th. Superimposed on the current high start-up of the PTA market, supply pressure is highlighted.
It is understood that in the fourth quarter, another 1.1 million-ton PTA device of Dushan Energy and a 2.5-million-ton Fujian Baihong PTA device are scheduled to be put into operation. As demand weakens, market supply and demand are expected to weaken. , further suppressing the PTA market, and the decline was relatively strong.
Taken together, the recent decline in inventory of polyester products has begun to narrow, indicating that demand is gradually weakening month-on-month, but the operating rates of loom factories and polyester end factories remain Remaining at a high level, rigid demand is still good, but the demand for raw material replenishment in the downstream links has come to an end. If rigid demand remains high, PTA prices are expected to remain stable, otherwise prices will continue to decline. Faced with the pressure of high social inventories, the futures market still maintains the idea of shorting on rallies. </p
