After the buzz about the concept of cold winter and the return of orders from India, the textile market after the crazy Double 11 this year is highly anticipated.
All major platforms have provided sufficient subsidies for this year’s Double 11. The Tmall platform alone will bring We will receive 30 billion yuan in cash subsidies, doubling the overall scale of last year. In terms of subsidies, efforts have been strengthened and thresholds have been lowered. Taobao/Tmall’s subsidy threshold has dropped from 400-50 in 2019 to 300-40 this year. Jingdong’s subsidy has been upgraded from a maximum of 30 to 300-40. Douyin’s Super Fan Festival this year For new purchases of 100-10, Kuaishou will issue a bonus of 100 million yuan.
Also note that this year’s “Double 11” announced by Tmall will start pre-sales in advance on October 21st, and November 1st-3rd is The first wave, November 11th is the second wave. This means that this year’s Double 11 has three more days than previous years. Consumers can pay the final payment for pre-sale products on November 1 and receive the goods 10 days in advance.
The extension of time and the advance of receiving goods will undoubtedly further expand the enthusiasm for consumption.
So far, Peacebird, Luolai Life, and Fuanna have announced their third quarter reports, and their performance has exceeded previous expectations. For example, Peacebird’s third quarter non-net profit growth rate was as high as 160% year-on-year.
The textile market has been in turmoil
01 Finished product market stocking and winter clothing fabric orders “crash”
Anyone familiar with the fabric market knows that around October and November in the second half of the year, the finished product spot market will usher in a relatively concentrated year-end stocking. This is the more common “market order” in the market. During this period, the order volume is large, the types are limited, and the duration is short. This period is now here, and the orders are coming more obviously than in any previous year.
“Currently, our orders have been scheduled until January next year, and we are now in full production. In September, the company’s output value increased by about 25% year-on-year.” Wu Gang Knitting Co., Ltd. is The company is the president of the Municipal Knitted Garment Industry Association and specializes in the production and sales of various types of knitted garment fabrics. Its products are mainly supplied to downstream garment companies. Company chairman Wu Gang learned from customers in Henan, Shandong, Sichuan and other places that some clothing companies had sold out all their inventory in the previous two years. He analyzed that the recovery of the domestic textile and apparel industry is mainly affected by the superposition of domestic and foreign factors.
On October 19, the workshop of Wugang Knitting Co., Ltd. located in the Huadian Functional Area of the Development Zone was busy. In order to rush the goods, even office staff joined the production line.
Compared with the first half of the year, this scene is like ice and fire. On the one hand, a large number of textile and clothing orders have been transferred from abroad to China in the second half of the year.
Affected by the epidemic, many textile and garment companies in India, Pakistan and other countries are unable to guarantee normal delivery. In order to ensure continuous supply, European and American retailers have transferred large quantities of orders to China for production.
According to public data, in August, the national textile export volume was US$14.72 billion, a year-on-year increase of 47%; the clothing export volume was US$16.21 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, achieving the first growth rate this year. Positive monthly growth. Secondly, the steady recovery of the domestic economy has driven demand growth and the arrival of the traditional “Golden Nine and Silver Ten” consumption peak seasons has also stimulated the consumption of textiles and clothing.
However, Wu Gang said that the surge in foreign textile and apparel orders mainly comes from more economically developed regions such as Europe and the United States, while the growth in the Middle East, Africa and other regions is not obvious.
The rapid increase in orders in the short term has also brought new troubles to textile and garment companies – the prices of upstream raw materials such as dyes, cotton, and polyester have soared, and it is difficult to find a single product. .
“In the first half of the year, due to the sluggish market, upstream companies were controlling inventories.” Wu Gang said that after the rapid growth of clothing production, yarn and other raw materials were in short supply, and prices rose by about 10%. , and the delivery date is uncertain. In the past, when purchasing yarn, it would arrive two or three days after payment; now, it may not arrive even after more than half a month after payment. Wu Gang said frankly that he has been engaged in the textile industry for more than 20 years and has not encountered such a situation in ten years. “In 2010, multiple factors at home and abroad combined, and raw material prices skyrocketed, causing many garment companies to be overwhelmed. At present, the 10% increase in raw material prices is still within the normal range, and will not have a great impact on the subsequent development of the industry. ”
02 Some products have begun to cool down, and dyeing factory warehouses have declined slightly
The market has picked up in the recent stage. On the one hand, It’s time for phased replenishment in the finished textile market. On the other hand, the expectation of cold winter has driven the hot sales of winter clothing fabrics. Most of the dyeing factories are using nylon, gallbladder, pongee, four-way elastic and the like. product. However, compared with the National Day period, the overall order volume has declined.
According to some employees of nylon spinning and gallbladder companies, the order volume has dropped from the previous week, and the orders on hand can generally only last until the end of November. At most, it can only last until December.
Those who understand the raw material market should know that part of the reason for this wave of rise in gray cloth prices is due to the rise in raw material prices. However, the recent growth in the raw material market has slowed down and stabilized. This wave of rising prices seems to have It has been declared over, so it seems to mean that the order wave is about to subside? Although the dyeing factory’s daily warehouse intake is as high as 700,000 to 800,000 meters, it is already down compared with the daily warehouse intake of about 900,000 meters a week ago.By quite a margin.
There are many reasons for the increase in orders in the market. However, under the circumstances of severe global epidemic and economic damage, the sustainability of overall orders must be limited. After a short outbreak, It is also reasonable to fall back again.
In general, the market has cooled down slightly recently, and both textile trading companies and printing and dyeing factories have felt it more or less. Once the market returns to calm again and orders are significantly reduced, what will happen to the rising dyeing fees? Will customers at that time still be able to accept the continuous increase in dyeing fees. Perhaps dyeing factories will enter a state of lowering prices to attract customers.
In previous years, this was the peak season during the “Silver Ten” period, but now, although the order volume is rising, it is still not as good as before. Therefore, many market participants are still looking forward to another increase in order volume.
The editor believes that the order volume will continue to increase, and currently it is mainly market orders, mainly the preparation of clothing e-commerce for “Double Eleven”. At present, many stores have launched pre-sale activities, and there are activities such as payment of deposits. Merchants can obtain the purchase quantity in advance and stock up in advance, so merchants are still placing orders one after another. Immediately after the “Double 12” is coming, there may be a wave of replenishment orders, so the order volume is more likely to increase. In addition, as the temperature drops, the demand for cold-proof clothing fabrics may pick up, driving up the market atmosphere. .
However, according to the market situation in previous years, September and October are the busiest periods in the second half of the year. Orders will gradually decrease after November, but orders for next year will gradually be placed. Furthermore, the entire market is still facing overcapacity, and Boss Bu also needs to pay attention to the order placement situation and foreign trade situation in the future. </p