A few days ago, when Lin Yifu, professor and dean of the Institute of New Structural Economics at Peking University, attended the 2020 Lenovo Innovation and Technology Conference, he analyzed the practical significance of the currently widely watched “dual circulation” and expressed his views on the role of China and Chinese enterprises in this The advantages of this pattern are explained.
Lin Yifu said that there are short-term reasons for proposing “domestic circulation as the main body”, but what is more important is the basic law of economic development. In fact, China’s economic development path does not have any Change.
In the short term, due to the COVID-19 epidemic, the economies of all countries have suffered a great decline this year. According to WTO predictions, international trade may decrease by 13% to 32%. Trade has decreased. Of course, more of the products produced in China are digested and circulated domestically.
From the perspective of more important basic laws of economic development, China’s exports accounted for the highest proportion of GDP in 2006, reaching 35.4%. In 2019, exports accounted for 17.4% of GDP. That is to say , 82.6% of domestic production has been digested and circulated domestically. Talking about the reasons for the drop from 35.4% in 2006 to 17.4% in 2019, Lin Yifu believes that there are two main reasons: first, the larger the economy, the lower the proportion of its exports; second, the more developed the economy , the greater the proportion of the service industry. Many service industries are not tradable, so for some high-income economies, such as the United States, where the service industry accounts for about 80% of the economy, the proportion of its exports will be lower than that of our country. In 2019, U.S. exports accounted for only 7.6% of GDP, which means that 92.4% of the U.S. economy circulates within the United States.
Lin Yifu said that looking into the future, China’s economy will continue to develop. China’s economy will account for an increasing proportion of the world economy. China’s income will grow and the proportion of the service industry will increase. Therefore, external The export part will continue to approach 15%, 12%, and 10% from 17.4% in 2019. Under this situation, proposing “domestic circulation as the main body” will help us understand China’s development stage The situation is conducive to seizing opportunities and moving forward.
Lin Yi analyzed that China’s economic development has three competitive advantages.
Traditional industries
In terms of traditional industries, my country still has the advantage of being a latecomer. In 2019, my country’s per capita GDP was US$10,098, which is still far behind the United States’ per capita GDP of more than US$60,000. Compared with developed countries, China’s current development trend is a bit like Japan in the 1950s, Singapore in the 1970s, and South Korea in the 1980s. These East Asian economies have maintained an average growth rate of about 8% to 9% by taking advantage of the industrial chain technology gap with developed countries. China also has 8% growth potential from the perspective of catching up with latecomers in traditional industries.
New Industrial Revolution
Advantages in the new industrial revolution. Including the Internet, artificial intelligence, cloud computing, 5G, Internet of Everything, etc., the product and technology research and development cycles are particularly short, which is conducive to the development of a country with human resources like China, and China has the most complete industries and the best in the world. supply chain, in this short-cycle new industrial revolution, China also has the advantage of overtaking halfway and can keep pace with developed countries. The most obvious manifestation is the “unicorn” enterprise.
Purchasing power
Advantages in purchasing power. China has the largest market in the world, and based on market exchange rate, China is also the second largest market in the world. The larger it is, the greater its ability to resist external shocks, so China can maintain more stable development than other countries in the future.
Lin Yifu believes that by making good use of these three advantages, even if it is affected by the new coronavirus epidemic, our country’s economic growth rate this year may still be between 2% and 3%. The economic growth rate of the world may be negative 5%, the economic growth rate of the United States may be negative 8%, and the economic growth rate of Europe may be negative 10%. In this case, even if we are slower and other countries are slower than us, we may be further ahead of them.
Lin Yifu said that since 2008, China has contributed 30% to world economic growth every year. Under the new development pattern, he believes that China can also contribute 30% to world economic growth every year. China It is still the fastest growing country in the world and will provide the best stage for entrepreneurs.
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