In the first three quarters of 2020, faced with the huge impact of the COVID-19 epidemic and the complex and severe domestic and international environment, my country’s textile industry continued to promote the resumption of work and production under normalized epidemic prevention and control conditions, with production demand steadily improving and the industrial cycle maintaining smooth, corporate profits have gradually recovered, and economic operations have recovered under pressure, providing positive support for promoting the steady improvement of the national economy, maintaining the stable operation of the global textile industry chain and supply chain, and assisting epidemic prevention and control. However, global economic and trade activities have not yet emerged from the trough of the epidemic, and various unstable and uncertain factors such as trade frictions and geopolitics have increased significantly. Under the conditions of normalized epidemic prevention and control, the foundation for the continued recovery of the textile industry still needs to be consolidated and maintained. Stable development faces greater challenges.
01 The industry boom continues to expand, and production growth picks up quarter by quarter
In the third quarter, the prosperity of the textile industry rebounded significantly, and the level of production capacity utilization accelerated. According to survey data from the China Textile and Apparel Industry Federation, in the third quarter of 2020, the textile industry prosperity index was 61.5, an increase of 10.5 points from the second quarter, reaching the highest level since 2018. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the capacity utilization rates of the textile industry and the chemical fiber industry reached 72.4% and 79.1% respectively in the first three quarters, an increase of 2.1 and 2 percentage points respectively from the first half of the year, but a slowdown of 5.6 and 4 percentage points respectively from the same period last year.
The decline in industry production narrowed quarter by quarter. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first three quarters of 2020, the added value of the textile industry above designated size fell by 4.6% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 7.5 percentage points lower than the same period last year. It rebounded by 11.9 and 2.1 percentage points from the first quarter and first half of this year, respectively. Among the major links in the industrial chain, the industrial textile industry, driven by epidemic prevention materials, has continued its high-speed leading trend this year. The industrial added value in the first three quarters increased by 59.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate accelerated by 1.7 percentage points compared with the first half of the year. Supported by the rebound in market demand, the added value of the chemical fiber industry and filament weaving industry turned from negative to positive, with year-on-year growth of 0.2% and 1.4% respectively from January to September. As the industrial chain transmission still needs to be processed, the production growth rate of terminal consumer goods is still in a negative growth trend. From January to September, the industrial added value of the clothing and home textile industries decreased by 10.6% and 3% year-on-year respectively.
02 The domestic demand market continues to rebound and export growth has accelerated
Since the third quarter, the domestic demand market for textiles and apparel has gradually recovered from the impact of the epidemic, showing signs of accelerating recovery. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first three quarters of 2020, the national retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, and knitted textiles above designated size decreased by 12.4% year-on-year, and the decline was 7.2 percentage points higher than in the first half of the year. The Internet is deeply integrated with various textile and apparel consumption formats. New formats and new models such as live streaming e-commerce and social e-commerce have effectively promoted consumption replenishment, and the online consumption demand for textiles and apparel is accelerating. In the first three quarters, the national online retail sales of clothing products increased by 3.3% year-on-year. The growth rate has turned from negative to positive since August, and the growth rate rebounded by 6.2 percentage points from the first half of the year.
With the epidemic causing a decline in the international market and obstruction of the international supply chain, my country’s epidemic prevention and control has taken the lead in achieving positive results. The textile industry relies on a complete industrial chain, supply chain system and stability. With its high-quality supply capacity, it not only strives to ensure the supply of international anti-epidemic materials, but also effectively fills the gap in the international supply chain and meets consumer demand after the restart of overseas economies, and export growth has accelerated. Customs Express data shows that my country’s textile and apparel exports in the first three quarters were US$215.78 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.4%, and the growth rate rebounded by 6.2 percentage points from the first half of the year. From the perspective of product structure, textile exports were US$117.95 billion, a substantial increase of 33.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 5.9 percentage points higher than the first half of the year; clothing exports were US$97.83 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 10.3%, and the growth rate was 9.1 percentage points higher than the first half of the year. percentage point.
03 Corporate profits gradually recovered, and the decline in investment narrowed
Under the influence of factors such as the demand for anti-epidemic materials and the gradual recovery of domestic and foreign markets, the efficiency of the textile industry has gradually recovered. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that in the first three quarters, the country’s 34,000 textile enterprises above designated size achieved operating income of 3.14772 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.1%. The decline was 13.3 and 4.3 percentage points narrower than the first quarter and the first half of the year respectively. Total profits were 126.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.1%, and the decline was 32.2 and 6.9 percentage points narrower than the first quarter and the first half of the year respectively. The operating income profit margin of textile enterprises above designated size was 4%, which has returned to the same period last year, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the first half of the year. Among them, the industrial textiles industry has outstanding profitability. In the first three quarters, operating income and total profits increased significantly by 32.9% and 240.1% respectively year-on-year. The operating income profit margin reached 12.3%, ranking first among all major links in the industrial chain. The total profit of the home textile industry also achieved positive growth, with an increase of 20.1% in the first three quarters; the profit margin was 5.1%, both higher than the industry average.
Although profits show a trend of recovery, textile enterprises are still under great pressure in production and operation, and operation quality has declined. The loss ratio of textile enterprises above designated size nationwide is 28.6%, and the loss of loss-making enterprises is 28.6%. A year-on-year increase of 43%; the total asset turnover rate and finished product turnover rate were 1 time/year and 11.5 times/year respectively, a year-on-year slowdown of 17.2% and 15.3% respectively; the three-fee ratio was 7%, an increase of 0.2% from the same period last year. percentage point.
With the recovery of the consumer market and the effectiveness of national policies to “stabilize investment,” the decline in investment in the textile industry continues to narrow. According to the National Bureau of StatisticsIt is estimated that in the first three quarters, the completion of fixed asset investment in the textile industry decreased by 20.4% year-on-year, and the growth rate slowed down by 13.4 percentage points from the same period last year, and rose by 6.9 percentage points from the first half of the year.
04 Uncertain factors still need to be resolved, and the “dual cycle” pattern leads to high-quality development
In the first three quarters of 2020, the textile industry has overcome the adverse effects of the epidemic, and major economic operating indicators have gradually improved, laying the foundation for a smooth recovery. However, from the fourth quarter to 2021, the development situation of the textile industry will still be complicated. From the perspective of the external environment, the turning point of the global epidemic has not yet appeared and there is a possibility of rebound. The world economy is still in recession. The complex situation drives the adjustment and reconstruction of the global textile industry chain and supply chain distribution pattern. The development of my country’s textile industry is facing multiple uncertainties. ,unstable factor. Judging from its own situation, although domestic and foreign market demand has recovered, it has not yet returned to normal levels. The pressure on production and operation of enterprises has not yet been relieved. Development confidence is still insufficient. The negative growth trend of efficiency and investment has not yet been reversed. The trend of stable and good development continues. The foundation still needs to be solidified.
Overall, my country’s textile industry still has the important foundation and advantageous conditions for continued recovery. In the context of the global epidemic “pandemic”, my country has achieved significant results in epidemic prevention and control, and the macro economy has taken the lead in recovery. The annual GDP is expected to exceed 100 trillion yuan, giving the textile industry the advantage of the domestic ultra-large market and accelerating consumption. The potential is released, thereby forming a virtuous domestic cycle of “restoration of corporate profits – improvement of residents’ consumption – boost of investment confidence” to provide fundamental development support. my country’s textile industry has a complete industrial system and stable high-quality supply capabilities, and will also play a more important role in the global textile industry chain and supply chain system. The effects of the state’s policies to help enterprises bail out and “six stability” and “six guarantees” continue to show, will further improve the business environment, reduce the burden on enterprises, stimulate the vitality of market entities, and promote the economic operation of the textile industry to return to normal track.
The textile industry will implement the decisions and arrangements of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, and continue to deepen the supply-side structural reform in accordance with the requirements of building a new dual-cycle pattern with domestic circulation as the main body and domestic and international mutual promotion. , accelerate the transformation and upgrading of the industry, strive to overcome downward risk pressure, and maintain basically stable economic operations. In order to implement the “six stability” work and the “six guarantees” tasks, comprehensively achieve the decisive victory in building a moderately prosperous society in an all-round way and the decisive battle against poverty, start the “Ten Make due contributions to the new situation of high-quality development of the national economy during the Fourth Five-Year Plan period.
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