A brief description of the first part
According to Jin Lianchuang monitoring, the overall PX upstream and downstream products in October It showed an increase first and then a decrease. In the first half of the year, crude oil rose steadily, and the overall sentiment of the general environment was warmer. In particular, end-use textiles entered the peak demand season, and overseas export orders increased significantly, driving the entire polyester market’s production and sales. The polyester industry chain drove the upstream market to strengthen. However, crude oil continued to fall sharply in the second half of the year, with industry players cautious and chemical products generally weakening.
Table PX and related products rise and fall rankings in October
Data Source: Jin Lianchuang
In October, the average monthly price of PX upstream and downstream products fell overall month-on-month. Only the average monthly price of polyester chips increased month-on-month, with the monthly average price rising 0.97% month-on-month. Among them, the monthly average price of xylene market fell the most, down 4.20% month-on-month. In addition, the monthly average price of polyester bottle flakes fell by 4.08% month-on-month. The monthly average price of PTA market in East China fell by 2.22% month-on-month. The monthly average price of PX market fell by a small amount. Large, down only 1.48%.
Part 2: Market analysis of main products of the PX industry chain
Data source: Jin Lianchuang
Isomerized xylene
10 The domestic xylene market fluctuated in March and fell. After the National Day holiday, port inventories further increased and supply pressure increased. Although the number of PX companies operating has increased and xylene consumption has increased, the demand for oil adjustment has weakened, and port inventory levels have slowly declined. Overall, they are still at historically high levels, and prices are under heavy pressure. Crude oil futures prices continued to fall in the second half of the month. Affected by the decline in domestic gasoline wholesale prices, domestic component products have declined one after another. Xylene prices have also been under pressure. The pressure on spot delivery near the end of the month has led to an increase in spot selling. Multiple negative factors have superimposed, and market confidence has increased. losses, causing prices to fall further.
PX
In October, the Asian PX market first rose and then fell. Showing an inverted V trend, as of the end of the month, Asian PX was estimated at US$511/ton FOB South Korea and US$529/ton CFR Taiwan/China, which was only US$2/ton lower than the end of last month. At the beginning of the month, as crude oil continued to recover, market panic subsided and the PX buying atmosphere improved. However, because PX supply is still too high, the market growth is limited. PX companies have suffered long-term losses, and merchants are not willing to make profits. Although downstream PTA production is in losses, However, the PTA operating rate is still high, and the PTA market is showing signs of recovery, driving the PX market sentiment. In the middle of the month, due to the proper prevention and control of the domestic epidemic and the good mood for the Double Eleven stocking of end products, the demand of the textile industry was boosted. The downstream PTA market strengthened. In addition, a PTA device of Dushan Energy was put into operation. The demand for PX is expected to increase. Holders The offer price is firm, crude oil has fallen sharply in the middle and late half of the year, and the overall sentiment in the industry chain is weak. PX basically follows the upstream and downstream market trends. Merchants are cautious, and the offer price is gradually loosening. However, the operating rate of PX remains high, the overall supply is sufficient, and the enthusiasm for downstream purchasing is average. At the end of the month, Sinopec announced that the settlement price of PX in October was 4,280 yuan/ton, which was 130 yuan/ton lower than the settlement price last month. The average CFR Taiwan/China price in October was 540.73 US dollars/ton, down 1.48% month-on-month and 31.90% year-on-year. The lowest price was US$521/ton on October 5, and the highest price was US$561/ton on October 22. Ton.
PTA
The PTA spot market first rose and then fell in October. The overall transaction situation is average. At the beginning of the month, international crude oil prices strengthened after the holiday, which benefited the PTA market on the cost side. PTA equipment maintenance and restarts coexisted, and the supply was generally stable. The performance of downstream polyester production and sales is acceptable, terminal demand continues to recover, and the PTA market maintains a volatile pattern. On the 9th, the spot offer at the main port in East China was reduced by 170 yuan/ton for the 2101 contract, and the offer was reduced by 180 yuan/ton. The negotiation centered on 3260-3280 yuan/ton. In the middle of the year, international crude oil prices fluctuated strongly, and the cost side provided solid support to the PTA market. Some PTA units have been shut down for maintenance, and supply pressure has eased. The performance of terminal textile demand exceeded expectations. Factories actively replenished the upstream raw material polyester. Polyester factories took the opportunity to increase prices for shipments. Production and sales were relatively hot. Downstream destocking was obvious, and the entire industry chain rebounded strongly. At the same time, the short fiber futures market continued to rise by the daily limit, which ignited market sentiment to a certain extent, boosting the PTA market, and the PTA spot market subsequently strengthened. On the 15th, the spot offer at the main port in East China was reduced by 140 yuan/ton for the 2101 contract, and the offer was reduced by 145 yuan/ton. The negotiation centered on 3400-3440 yuan/ton. In the second half of the year, the international crude oil market fluctuated and declined, the chemical sector as a whole weakened, and PTA stopped rising and fell. The maintenance and restart of the PTA device coexist, and the second phase of Dushan Energy’s new device is put into operation. The supply volume remains high, which suppresses the market price to a certain extent. Terminal textile demand shows signs of weakening, driving the entire industry chain to plummet. After early price increases and destocking, the production and sales of downstream polyester and polyester chips have dropped significantly, and the sentiment towards polyester has cooled down. On the 29th, the spot offer at the main port in East China was reduced by 195 yuan/ton for the 2101 contract, and the offer was reduced by 200 yuan/ton. The negotiation centered on 3220-3250 yuan/ton. The average PTA market price in East China in October was 3,351 yuan/ton, down 1.93% month-on-month and 32.85% year-on-year. The highest price appeared on the 21st at 3,480 yuan/ton, and the lowest price appeared at 3,220 yuan/ton on the 29th.
Polyester chips
The polyester chips market fluctuated in October , showing a trend of rising first and then falling. Early ten days, internationalCrude oil rose slightly, the raw material PTA fluctuated strongly, and the cost push effect increased. Under the cost support, the quotations of polyester chip factories increased by 50-100 yuan/ton. The supply and demand side was basically balanced, and downstream demand showed substantial growth. The purchasing sentiment of downstream factories Strong, market production and sales are good, and the main downstream polyester filament market is recovering, which jointly promotes the steady increase in the focus of transactions in the polyester chips market. In the middle of the year, international crude oil remained at a high level, raw material PTA fluctuated upwards, cost support was solid, polyester chip companies’ quotations were stable, downstream factories actively stocked up, the market trading atmosphere was good, polyester chips market production and sales increased, market transactions continued to move higher, and the chip market showed a positive trend. Operating in a warm oscillation pattern. In the second half of the year, the overhaul and restart of the raw material PTA coexisted. The market price continued to fall and the cost support was insufficient. The quotations of slicing companies were accordingly reduced by 50-100 yuan/ton. Most companies shipped goods according to the market. The buying sentiment of downstream factories declined, and the market production and sales fell. Polyester Corporate inventories are at a relatively high level, market trading atmosphere is average, and the focus of the slicing market is consolidating at a low level. As of October 30, the average chip market price was 4,558 yuan/ton, up 0.97% month-on-month and down 28.25% year-on-year. The highest price was 4,700 yuan/ton on October 19, and the lowest price was 4,400 yuan/ton on October 9. Yuan / ton.
Polyester bottle flakes
Domestic bottle grade PET market in October The overall trend showed an increase first and then a decrease. In the first half of the year, the domestic bottle-grade PET market was stable and relatively strong. Driven by the rise in international crude oil, the market prices of polyester raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol have risen, and the cost push has increased. Coupled with the recent equipment maintenance of some bottle flake manufacturers, the market supply has decreased, and bottle flake manufacturers have begun to slightly increase their quotations, and the focus of market negotiations has gradually increased to 4900-5050 yuan/ton. In the second half of the year, the bottle-grade PET market began to fluctuate and fall. The market for polyester raw material PTA continues to weaken, and support for the market has weakened. Bottle flake manufacturers have gradually lowered their offers, and by the end of the month, the focus of market negotiations has dropped to 4,700-4,800 yuan/ton. As the weather turns colder, terminal beverage consumption has entered the off-season, and the demand from downstream beverage factories has gradually shrunk. The follow-up of downstream buying has slowed down, and market transactions have become thinner. Recently, downstream demand for oil has entered the peak season, and market demand has increased. During this month, major downstream manufacturers will invite bidding for large orders from the fourth quarter to the first and second quarters of next year, and the market transactions will increase. As of October 30, the average bottle-grade PET market price in East China in October was 4,865 yuan/ton, down 4.08% month-on-month and 27.26% year-on-year. The highest price appeared at 5,050 yuan/ton on October 19, and the lowest price appeared at 4,700 yuan/ton on October 9.
Part 3 Forecast and Outlook
It is expected that the PX industry chain may be weak and volatile in November, and it is difficult to get better. The international epidemic situation remains severe, and international oil prices have become more volatile, which has exerted pressure on the market. Next month, the supply and demand side of polyester raw materials PX to PTA and ethylene glycol will weaken, and the market will be under pressure. However, terminal textile demand will begin to weaken, and the supply pressure of polyester companies will increase, which will put some pressure on the entire industrial chain market. Therefore, the overall market trend in November will remain weak. The following is the market outlook for each product:
Xylene
It is expected that the domestic xylene market will fluctuate slightly and recover in November. xylene imports are expected to decrease in November, and port inventories are also expected to decline slowly. The current domestic xylene price level is already low, and the cost support is relatively strong. There is a small chance that prices will continue to fall in the future. A large number of downstream PX companies have started operations, consuming increased xylene. However, the epidemic has restricted gasoline consumption, and the demand for oil adjustment is expected to decline. The market will lack speculative activity. It is expected that as the fundamental contradiction between supply and demand is alleviated, xylene prices are expected to rebound slightly. .
PX
It is expected that the PX market will continue to fluctuate at a low level in November. The international epidemic still restricts market demand, and downstream demand is gradually entering the market. In the off-season, PX supply remains at a relatively high level, but downstream PTA companies do not have many maintenance plans next month. PX demand remains stable, and the long-short atmosphere is deadlocked.
PTA
The PTA market is expected to be weak in November. Recently, the decline in inventory of various polyester products has begun to narrow, indicating that demand is gradually weakening month-on-month. However, the operating rates of loom factories and polyester end factories remain at a high level, and rigid demand is still good. However, the raw material replenishment in downstream links is still high. The demand comes to an end. If rigid demand remains high, PTA prices are expected to remain stable, otherwise prices will continue to decline. However, the current PTA price is close to the historical low level, so there is not much room for downside.
Polyester PET
It is expected that the polyester PET market in November will be Weak finishing. The raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol may fluctuate weakly next month, and the cost push effect is limited. From the supply side, the polyester PET factory will undergo equipment maintenance and restart in November, and the operating rate may remain high. It is expected that the supply will be sufficient in the future. From the demand side, the terminal demand peak season in November is coming to an end, and there is insufficient follow-up growth in orders. In addition, the second outbreak of the epidemic around the world may cause demand to fall due to the obstruction of exports. It is expected that the start-up of fiber-grade PET downstream slicing mills will not fluctuate much. The main demand is to purchase raw materials. The bottle-grade PET downstream is in the traditional consumption off-season, and market transactions are light. Most downstream companies are cautious and wait-and-see. The overall demand for the polyester PET market is average. Taken together, the polyester PET market may be weak and volatile in November, and we should pay close attention to the trend of international crude oil and the trend of the upstream raw material market in the future.
</p
