According to feedback from weaving companies and cotton yarn traders in coastal areas such as Guangdong, Jiangsu and Zhejiang, although the main ICE cotton futures contract continues to consolidate around 70 cents/pound, there is a lack of fundamental guidance; although the COVID-19 epidemic in Europe, the United States, India and other countries has The second and third waves have broken out one after another, and the global economic recovery, consumption recovery, and trade rebound may encounter greater resistance; despite the “double holidays” (Thanksgiving and Christmas) in Europe and the United States and other countries, orders are still “short, flat, and fast” and Mainly low profits, but since late October, the ex-factory prices and export quotations of cotton yarn, polyester-cotton yarn, etc. in countries including India and Pakistan have been raised again and again (FOB, CNF or CIF prices), which is in line with the global, The price trend of Indian cotton has deviated; although the external inquiries and transactions of cotton yarns from India, Pakistan, Indonesia and other origins have cooled down significantly compared with September/October, ship cargo, bonded Indian 40S and above yarn number carded and combed yarns have been signed for shipment The atmosphere is light, but yarn mills and exporters are willing to raise prices.
From the investigation of the light textile market and middlemen in Guangdong, Jiangsu and Zhejiang and other places, the RMB quotations of customs-cleared cotton yarn from India, Pakistan, Vietnam and other places have continued to fall, which is in sharp contrast with the external market. Moreover, market trading volume and activity continued to “dissipate” compared with October. Several traders said that in the past week or so, bonded and non-bonded cotton yarns at the port have been incoming more than outgoing, and the inventory has gradually stopped and rebounded. The competitiveness of Indian and Pakistani yarns has been weakened. The reasons include the following points:
Firstly, Affected by the continuous decline of the Zhengfu CF2101 contract from the high point of 15305 in late October, the quotations of domestic OE yarn, carded yarn and combed yarn have generally loosened and fallen, and the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton yarn has narrowed;
The second is The appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar reduces the cost of cotton yarn imports. On November 5, the central parity rate of RMB against the US dollar was 6.6895, a decrease of 124 points. Ping An Securities believes that the current appreciation of the RMB is close to full, and the upper limit of the appreciation may be around 6.5;
Third, the “Double Festival” order distribution by European and American textile and clothing brands and retailers is gradually entering the final stage; but as With the epidemic rebounding rapidly in Europe, governments around the world have had to adopt prevention and control measures such as “closing cities and markets” (Christmas markets have been canceled in many places), making it uncertain whether the “Double Festival” orders can continue to be implemented;
Fourthly, The United States has entered the presidential election period, and the industry is optimistic that if Biden takes office, the temporarily shelved extensive import ban on Xinjiang cotton products is likely to be revoked or significantly extended again. </p
