In the first three quarters of 2020, faced with the huge impact of the COVID-19 epidemic and the complex and severe domestic and international environment, my country’s textile industry continued to promote the resumption of work and production under normalized epidemic prevention and control conditions, with production demand steadily improving and the industrial cycle maintaining smooth, corporate profits have gradually recovered, and economic operations have recovered under pressure, providing positive support for promoting the steady improvement of the national economy, maintaining the stable operation of the global textile industry chain and supply chain, and assisting epidemic prevention and control.
However, global economic and trade activities have not yet emerged from the trough of the epidemic, and various unstable and uncertain factors such as trade frictions and geopolitics have increased significantly. Under normalized epidemic prevention and control conditions, textile The foundation for the industry’s continued recovery and improvement still needs to be consolidated, and continued stable development faces greater challenges.
Industry prosperity maintained expansion, and production growth picked up quarter by quarter
In the third quarter, the textile industry’s prosperity rebounded significantly, and the level of production capacity utilization accelerated. According to survey data from the China Textile and Apparel Industry Federation, in the third quarter of 2020, the textile industry prosperity index was 61.5, an increase of 10.5 points from the second quarter, reaching the highest level since 2018. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the capacity utilization rates of the textile industry and the chemical fiber industry reached 72.4% and 79.1% respectively in the first three quarters, an increase of 2.1 and 2 percentage points respectively from the first half of the year, but a slowdown of 5.6 and 4 percentage points respectively from the same period last year.
The decline in industry production has narrowed quarter by quarter. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first three quarters of 2020, the added value of the textile industry above designated size fell by 4.6% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 7.5 percentage points lower than the same period last year. It rebounded by 11.9 and 2.1 percentage points from the first quarter and first half of this year, respectively.
Among the major links in the industrial chain, the industrial textiles industry, driven by epidemic prevention materials, has continued its high-speed leading trend this year. The industrial added value in the first three quarters increased by 59.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate accelerated by 1.7% from the first half of the year. percentage points. Supported by the rebound in market demand, the added value of the chemical fiber industry and filament weaving industry turned from negative to positive, with year-on-year growth of 0.2% and 1.4% respectively from January to September.
As the industrial chain transmission still needs a process, the production growth rate of terminal consumer goods is still negative. From January to September, the industrial added value of the clothing and home textile industries decreased by 10.6% and 3% year-on-year respectively.
Domestic demand market maintains recovery
Since the third quarter, the domestic demand market for textiles and clothing has gradually recovered from the impact of the epidemic and shown signs of accelerating recovery. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first three quarters of 2020, the national retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, and knitted textiles above designated size decreased by 12.4% year-on-year, and the decline was 7.2 percentage points higher than in the first half of the year.
The Internet is deeply integrated with various textile and apparel consumption formats. New formats and new models such as live streaming e-commerce and social e-commerce have effectively promoted consumption replenishment, and online consumer demand for textiles and apparel has accelerated. In the first three quarters, the national online retail sales of clothing products increased by 3.3% year-on-year. The growth rate has turned from negative to positive since August, and the growth rate rebounded by 6.2 percentage points from the first half of the year.
With the epidemic causing a decline in the international market and obstruction of the international supply chain , China has taken the lead in achieving positive results in epidemic prevention and control. Relying on a complete industrial chain, supply chain system and stable high-quality supply capacity, the textile industry has not only worked hard to ensure the supply of international epidemic prevention materials, but also effectively made up for the gap in the international supply chain and met the needs of overseas economies. After the restart of consumer demand, export growth has accelerated. Customs Express data shows that my country’s textile and apparel exports in the first three quarters were US$215.78 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.4%, and the growth rate rebounded by 6.2 percentage points from the first half of the year.
From the perspective of product structure, textile exports were US$117.95 billion, a significant year-on-year increase of 33.7%, and the growth rate was 5.9 percentage points higher than the first half of the year; clothing exports were US$97.83 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 10.3%, an increase of 5.9 percentage points. The speed rebounded by 9.1 percentage points from the first half of the year.
Corporate profits have gradually recovered, and the decline in investment has narrowed
With the demand for anti-epidemic materials driven by the demand for anti-epidemic materials and the gradual recovery of domestic and foreign markets, Under the influence of other factors, the efficiency of the textile industry has gradually recovered. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that in the first three quarters, the country’s 34,000 textile enterprises above designated size achieved operating income of 3.14772 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.1%. The decline was 13.3 and 4.3 percentage points narrower than the first quarter and the first half of the year respectively. Total profits were 126.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.1%, and the decline was 32.2 and 6.9 percentage points narrower than the first quarter and the first half of the year respectively.
The operating income profit margin of textile enterprises above designated size is 4%, which has returned to the same period last year, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the first half of the year. Among them, the industrial textiles industry has outstanding profitability. In the first three quarters, operating income and total profits increased significantly by 32.9% and 240.1% respectively year-on-year. The operating income profit margin reached 12.3%, ranking first among all major links in the industrial chain. The total profit of the home textile industry also achieved positive growth, with an increase of 20.1% in the first three quarters; the profit margin was 5.1%, both higher than the industry average.
Although profits show a recovery trend, textile enterprises are still under great pressure in production and operation, and operation quality has declined. The loss ratio of textile enterprises above designated size nationwide is 28.6%, and the loss of loss-making enterprises has increased by 43% year-on-year; overall The asset turnover rate and finished goods turnover rate are 1 time/year and 1 time respectively.1.5 times/year, a year-on-year slowdown of 17.2% and 15.3% respectively; the proportion of three fees is 7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the same period last year.
With the recovery of the consumer market and the effectiveness of national policies to “stabilize investment,” the decline in investment in the textile industry continues to narrow. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first three quarters, the completion of fixed asset investment in the textile industry decreased by 20.4% year-on-year, and the growth rate slowed down by 13.4 percentage points from the same period last year, and rose by 6.9 percentage points from the first half of the year.
Uncertain factors still need to be resolved, and the “dual circulation” pattern leads to high-quality development
In the first three quarters of 2020, the textile industry has overcome the adverse effects of the epidemic, and major economic performance indicators have gradually improved, laying the foundation for a smooth recovery. However, from the fourth quarter to 2021, the development situation of the textile industry will still be complicated.
From the perspective of the external environment, the turning point of the global epidemic has not yet occurred and a rebound is possible. The world economy is still in recession. The complex situation drives the adjustment of the distribution pattern of the global textile industry chain and supply chain. After reconstruction, the development of my country’s textile industry is facing multiple uncertain and unstable factors.
From the perspective of our own situation, although domestic and foreign market demand has rebounded, it has not yet returned to normal levels. The pressure on corporate production and operation has not yet been relieved. Development confidence is still insufficient, and benefits and Investment has not yet reversed its negative growth trend, and the foundation for continued steady and positive development still needs to be consolidated.
Overall, my country’s textile industry still has the important foundation and advantageous conditions for continued recovery. In the context of the global epidemic “pandemic”, my country has achieved significant results in epidemic prevention and control, and the macro economy has taken the lead in recovery. The annual GDP is expected to exceed 100 trillion yuan, giving the textile industry the advantage of the domestic ultra-large market and accelerating consumption. The potential is released, thereby forming a virtuous domestic cycle of “restoration of corporate profits – improvement of residents’ consumption – boost of investment confidence” to provide fundamental development support.
my country’s textile industry has a complete industrial system and stable high-quality supply capabilities, and will also play a more important role in the global textile industry chain and supply chain system. The effects of the state’s policies to help enterprises bail out and “six stability” and “six guarantees” continue to show, will further improve the business environment, reduce the burden on enterprises, stimulate the vitality of market entities, and promote the economic operation of the textile industry to return to normal track.
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