This year’s U.S. presidential election has been full of twists and turns. Trump went from a slow start to a strong comeback. After eagerly delivering a speech to declare victory, the two key battleground states of Wisconsin and Michigan turned blue one after another on the 4th. ”, leaving Biden only “one step away” from winning the White House.
The U.S. election is becoming increasingly clear, and Biden’s victory is a foregone conclusion. The reason why Biden won was not because of his ability, but because of his good luck. Before March of this year, no one could challenge Trump. When the epidemic broke out, the United States was at a disadvantage in fighting the epidemic, ranking first in the world in confirmed cases and deaths. The epidemic has also dealt a severe blow to the U.S. economy, wiping out Trump’s early economic gains. As a result, Biden was given a chance to make a comeback.
After the US election is over, what impact will it have on the textile market?
So, which one, Biden’s victory or Trump’s successful re-election, will bring more and better opportunities to our country’s textile and foreign trade?
The answer is no!
We must be clear that whether Trump is re-elected or Biden successfully takes office, the United States will not relax its suppression of China for a moment. It can be said that “if you don’t die, I will feel uneasy.” kind of.
First, let’s review the different political views of Trump and Biden:
If Biden wins, the situation between China and the United States It becomes more confusing!
The reason why many Chinese hope Biden wins is not because they like him so much, but because they hate Trump so much. There is no essential difference between his China policy and Trump’s, but they are not so naked.
Now that both China and the United States have nuclear weapons with huge destructive power, military conflict is unlikely, and trade frictions will continue. However, no one can do without the other in globalization, and business must still be done. In the end it will turn into a war of institutions. The United States has great confidence in its own system. However, the United States, representing advanced countries, and India, a backward country, have performed poorly in responding to the epidemic. On the contrary, China is even better in the face of such natural disasters.
In his campaign platform, Biden wants to raise taxes on the following objects: increase corporate income tax from 21% to 28%, increase income tax on overseas subsidiaries of US companies from 10.5% to 21%, The top level of personal income tax recovered from 37% to 39.6%.
If Biden is elected, the increase in several types of corporate tax rates for U.S. companies will directly affect the profitability of U.S. companies. Under the impact of the epidemic, American companies that are slowly recovering will undoubtedly be hit again.
If Biden is elected, he may restart the foreign relations of the Obama era, which is to “unite” global partners, instead of destroying cooperation like Trump . As a result, trade relations with China will ease in the short term.
First of all, containing China’s development has become one of the few consensuses between the two parties in the United States, and it will not change depending on who the president is. Therefore, whether Biden is elected or Trump finally If elected, it is unlikely that the tariffs already imposed on China will be “unbound”, so textile people do not have to hope that the United States will take the initiative to stop Sino-US trade frictions after Biden wins the election.
Secondly, in terms of anti-epidemic, as of 5 a.m. on November 4, Beijing time, the number of confirmed cases of new coronavirus infection in the United States reached 9,358,469, and the death toll was 232,374. Trump has almost always had a negative effect in fighting the epidemic. If Biden is elected, it may restore a certain degree of market confidence, which to some extent is equivalent to orders for textile and clothing fabrics.
Third, this year’s election is a “farce”, and various bizarre operations between the two parties have further torn apart the American society that has been ravaged by the epidemic in a sense. The already shrinking market demand will be further compressed. If the election is settled, this tear may be alleviated to some extent. The market during the Thanksgiving and Christmas seasons may increase, which is a good thing for future textile exports to the United States. .
No matter what the outcome of the U.S. election is or where it will lead in the future, we stand at the climax of a major change unseen in a century, and we must make comprehensive plans and be prepared. Again, no matter who wins the U.S. presidential election, Sino-U.S. trade will never return to its past, and the foreign trade policy toward China will continue in the short term.
On the other hand, there is a high probability that the financial capital market will undergo huge changes in the near future, such as international oil prices and the RMB-USD exchange rate, which have a great impact on the production and operation of textile enterprises. Data can also fluctuate significantly.
For textile companies, the most important thing is to seek stability during the epidemic, pay attention to the US dollar exchange rate and be wary of foreign trade orders being canceled without reason. As the New Year is approaching, we will take orders that we can, and don’t force us to take orders that we can’t. The losses in the first half of the year have already been very painful. In the second half of the year, instead of losing orders due to overseas trade, we should turn more to the domestic market. </p
