Overview:
External crude oil rebounded slightly last week, with the main Brent 01 contract having a weekly increase of 4.6% and the WTI 12 main contract having a weekly increase of 4.96%. The main contract of SC crude oil 12 rebounded slightly last week following the external market, with a weekly increase of 3.13%.
The epidemic continues to break out in Europe and the United States. The United States added more than 120,000 new cases in a single day, bringing the cumulative number of confirmed cases to 10.185 million as of the reporting period, with more than 240,000 deaths. The epidemic situation in India, Brazil, and Russia is still not optimistic. Among them, the cumulative number of confirmed cases in India has reached nearly 8.507 million.
PTA:
The average spot price of PTA fell sharply to 3,030 yuan/ton. The main processing difference of TA disk is greatly reduced to 646. TA’s spot processing gap narrowed significantly to 448. The PTA load dropped slightly to 84.9%. Polyester continues to be put into production, and the load remains stable above 90%. As of last Friday, the preliminary calculation of domestic polyester comprehensive load was 90.7%. The operating rates of looms and texturing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang remained stable at a high level and declined slightly. As of now, the operating rates of looms and texturing are 91% and 94% respectively. It is still the highest level for the same period in history. The average monthly transaction volume of China Textile City in September was 39% lower than the same period last year. In October, there was a pulse-type transaction volume as expected. The transaction volume was 19% lower than last year and improved significantly month-on-month. In November, the terminal began to show signs of weakening. At present, despite the sharp decline in raw materials, polyester has fully turned a profit. The external crude oil rebounded last week. The second line 11.3 of Xinfengming Phase 2 2.2 million tons unit has been put into operation. The load is increasing, and the PTA-PX price difference has basically remained stable at 160-170. PTA profit transfer or continuation.
Ethylene glycol:
The average spot price of oil-based ethylene glycol fell sharply to 3,665 yuan/ton; the price near coal-based ethylene glycol remained stable at 3,550 yuan /Ton. The main basis of EG2101 strengthened significantly during the week, briefly turned positive on Thursday, and was -2 on Friday. As of November 2, the MEG port inventory in the main port area of East China was approximately 1.17 million tons, a decrease of 56,000 tons from the previous period. According to shipping reports, from November 2 to November 8, the total arrival volume of the four major ports is expected to be 131,000 tons, with arrivals continuing to be low. In October, the overall destocking of social warehouses was 200,000 tons, and the destocking of ports was 150,000 tons. It is expected that the destocking will continue in early November. The overall load of ethylene glycol and the start-up of coal-based equipment continued to rise.
As of November 5, the overall operating load of domestic ethylene glycol was 67.22%, of which the operating load of coal-based ethylene glycol was 58.77%. Overseas: There is no plan to restart a 700,000-ton unit in Saudi Arabia in November. The restart of a 300,000-ton unit in South Korea has been postponed to December. A 720,000-ton unit in Taiwan is scheduled to be shut down for about a month on November 5. In addition, Lotte Dashan’s 400,000-ton unit is currently being restarted. Overseas supply continues to be low. On the demand side, construction may still be around 90% in early November.
Cost and profit
1 Raw material market
1.1 Crude oil, NPT, PX
NPT (cfr Japan) fell slightly last week to US$385.5/ton last Friday. External crude oil rebounded slightly last week, with the main Brent 01 contract increasing by 4.6% on a weekly basis and the main WTI 12 contract increasing by 4.96% on a weekly basis. The naphtha-Brent spread narrowed significantly to US$61 at the beginning of the week, and widened to US$78 by last Friday; the naphtha-WTI spread narrowed significantly to US$76 at the beginning of the week, and widened significantly to around US$94 by last Friday. The price of PX (cfr China) first rose and then fell last week, falling to 516 US dollars as of last Friday. The PX-NPT spread was basically stable last week, and was 162 US dollars as of last Friday. PX Asia’s operating rate dropped slightly, while PX China’s operating rate remained stable compared with last week.
2 Cost and profit changes
The average spot price of oil-based ethylene glycol fell sharply to 3,665 yuan/ton. The spot price near coal production remained stable at 3,550 yuan/ton. Coal production load has rebounded for two consecutive weeks, and the rebound has weakened slightly this week. The cash flow of externally produced ethylene glycol fluctuated and recovered to -$24/ton. Naphtha to ethylene glycol maintains a basic breakeven, with a slight profit of about US$20. The cash flow loss of the methanol MTO production route continued to increase to -1510 yuan/ton. The profit changes of various ethylene glycol process routes are still differentiated.
Supply
1 Equipment maintenance situation
PTA domestic equipment: Xinfengming Dushan Energy Phase 2 2.2 million tons PTA equipment was put into operation on October 19, with a PTA production capacity base of 11 It was adjusted to 57.03 million tons from the previous month. The 350,000-ton unit of Yangzi Petrochemical will be shut down from 11.3, and the restart is to be determined; the 3.75 million-ton unit of Yisheng (Dalian) will be shut down for maintenance from 11.1 to 11.14. Maintenance increased, and the load dropped to 84.9% again. At the same time, the second line of Dushan Energy has 1.1 million tons of feed, and the load is currently being increased.
Table 1: PTA’s recent major device changes
Data source: CCF Zhongzhou Energy and Chemical Research Institute
Ethylene glycol device: Starting from November 2020, China’s total ethylene glycol production capacity is 15.035 million tons, and the total coal-to-ethylene glycol production capacity is 5.19 million tons. A new 500,000-ton unit of Zhongke Refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. was added. Domestic supply of ethylene glycol has rebounded sharply again. As of November 5, the overall operating load of domestic ethylene glycol was 67.22%, of which the operating load of coal-based ethylene glycol was 58.77%. Sinopec Wuhan’s 280,000-ton unit is scheduled to shut down for maintenance for 2 months on October 16; the S’erbang 40,000-ton unit is scheduled to shut down for maintenance for one month on October 15; Shanxi Woneng’s 300,000-ton unit is scheduled to shut down on October 20 and restart at the beginning of this week, and the load is increasing. Overseas: Nanya 4# 720,000-ton unit will be shut down on November 5, and maintenance is expected to last 30 days.close. Lotte Dashan 2# 400,000-ton unit is currently restarting.
Table 2: MEG’s recent major device changes:
Data source: CCF Zhongzhou Energy and Chemical Research Institute
New equipment put into operation: Shanxi Woneng Chemical’s 300,000 tons/year syngas production MEG unit was shut down at 10.20 and restarted at the beginning of this week, and the load is increasing; Xinjiang Tianye’s 600,000 tons/year unit is currently operating at a load of nearly 60%, and output is still increasing; The current operating load of Zhongke Refining and Chemical’s 500,000-ton new unit is close to 60%, and the output is still increasing; the current operating load of the 200,000-ton new unit in Yongcheng, Henan is around 40%, and the output is slowly increasing.
2PTA inventory
PTA-converted total social inventory has rebounded for two consecutive weeks, and the rebound increased last week big. Warehouse receipts continued to rebound sharply, PTA factory inventory fell slightly, polyester factory raw material inventory rebounded slightly, TA inventory converted from polyester finished product inventory rose sharply, and downstream inventory accumulation became more obvious.
3 Ethylene glycol import and port inventory
As of November 2, the MEG port inventory in the main port area of East China is approximately 117 million tons, a decrease of 56,000 tons from the previous period. According to shipping reports, from November 2 to November 8, the total arrival volume of the four major ports is expected to be 131,000 tons, with arrivals continuing to be low. In October, the overall destocking of social warehouses was 200,000 tons, and the destocking of ports was 150,000 tons. It is expected that the destocking will continue in early November.
Demand
1 Polyester
1.1 Polyester operating rate and device changes
The polyester plant continues to be put into operation. Starting from November 1, 2020, the polyester production capacity base has been revised upward to 62.6 million tons, with an additional 300,000 tons of Tongkun (supporting the production of polyester filament). Last week, the load of polyester equipment was partially adjusted, and the bottle flake load was slightly reduced, but the filament load picked up. As of last Thursday, the preliminary calculation of domestic polyester comprehensive load was 90.6%. It is expected to remain above 90% in early November. Among them, the load of polyester filament dropped slightly by 0.3% to 79.4%; in the off-season, the load of polyester bottle flakes continued to decline, and dropped again by 0.9% to 75% last week. With the price of raw materials falling sharply, the profit of polyester bottle flakes recovered slightly. Positive; The operating rate of direct-spun polyester short-sleeve fabrics has remained stable at 99.30% for many consecutive weeks, the highest level in history. The current profit of polyester short-sleeved fabrics is still around 800. The operating rate of polyester filament yarn is still the lowest level in the same period of the past year; the operating rate of polyester bottle flakes has dropped to the second lowest level in the same period of the past year. The fourth quarter is a period of intensive maintenance and load reduction for polyester bottle flake manufacturers.
1.2 Polyester Inventory
As of last Friday, the POY, FDY, and DTY equity inventories of Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester factories were at 13.1 respectively , 15, 15.8 days. Filament yarn inventory continues to accumulate, and filament yarn is still slightly profitable. Polyester staple fiber stocks rebounded to -0.2 days. The average inventory of polyester bottle flakes rose slightly to above 30 days. Polyester staple fiber inventory remains at the lowest level for the same period in the past; polyester bottle flake inventory remains at the highest level for the same period over the past years; polyester filament POY inventory has rebounded to the second highest level over the same period over the past years; filament FDY and DTY inventories remain at the equilibrium level over the same period over the past year.
2 Terminal Situation
Last week, the operating rates of looms and texturing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang continued to decrease sporadically, and the overall high level was maintained. As of now, the operating rates of looms and texturing are at 91% and 94% respectively, which are still the highest levels in the same period in previous years.
The inventory days of gray fabrics in sample enterprises in Shengze area fell to 40 days and then rose again to 40.5 days, which is still the highest level in the same period in previous years. The transaction volume of China Textile City in September was 39% lower than the same period last year. In October, there was a pulse-type transaction volume as expected. The transaction volume was 19% lower than last year and improved significantly month-on-month. In November, the terminal began to show signs of weakening.
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