In 2010, when the economic stimulus bubble burst and spindles shrank across the country, viscose staple fiber began to experience a five-year decline, until the price hit a relatively low level of 11,300 yuan/ton in early 2015. Post-value policies and Based on the low output caused by the previous consecutive declines, the industry finally began to rebound. The rebound lasted for more than 2 years and entered the shock range. The shock lasted for nearly 2 years. Then it entered a downward channel since October 2018. The decline lasted for 2 years and then rebounded again. , this is the end of a small cycle for the industry. However, it is still in a downward channel for most of 2020, and the average annual price is also at a relatively low level. As of the end of October 2020, the average price of viscose staple fiber in 2020 was 9,175 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of -23.83%. See Figure 1 for details.
Figure 1 Viscose staple fiber price trend chart from 2010 to 2020:
Judging from the 2016-2020 viscose staple fiber seasonal trend chart, the price trend of viscose staple fiber in the first quarter generally showed a steady upward trend, mainly due to factory demand after the holiday. Execution of orders can support prices; the second quarter will fall more than it rises; the third quarter will rise more than fall. The viscose staple fiber industry is accustomed to bottoming out at the end of the second quarter and the beginning of the third quarter, which also triggers the industry’s habitual stocking to drive viscose staple fiber prices in the third quarter. The reasons for bottoming out, and the middle and lower end of the chain are also accustomed to replenishing raw materials to prepare autumn and winter orders at this stage; the fourth quarter is another state of more decline than increase, autumn and winter orders are gradually ending, and spring and summer are not yet clear.
Figure 2 Seasonal trend chart of viscose staple fiber prices from 2015 to 2020:
Overview of the Viscose Staple Fiber Market in 2020
Judging from the price trend of viscose staple fiber in 2020, it can be summarized as 2 declines and 1 sharp rise.
The first drop: January 1 to April 30
The peak value is 9,700 yuan/ton, the trough is 8,750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.79%
The Spring Festival coincides with the outbreak of the domestic epidemic, and the lower-end links of the spinning, weaving, printing and dyeing chain are basically shut down. The start-up of the industry has been continuously postponed from the originally planned February 10th, and the spinning start-up was not started until the end of February. There has been a relatively obvious recovery, but what followed was the outbreak of the peripheral epidemic. The spinning mills initially had no orders and then some had no orders. This also triggered another decline in spinning starts from Qingming Festival to May Day. Viscose staple fiber is constrained by demand. The company’s finished product inventory once increased from 160,000 tons in early January to 357,000 tons at the end of February. Prices have also continued to decline. However, due to limited start-up at the end of the road, it is difficult to change the price of viscose staple fiber. Under such circumstances, after the May Day factory physical inventory once increased to a high of 390,000 tons during the year, industry prices also hit the first wave of new lows during the year.
The second drop: May 1st to August 5th
The peak value is 9,040 yuan/ton, the trough is 8,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.19%
When the price of viscose staple fiber hit a new low for the year in early May, the industry subsequently saw an increase in maintenance plans, coupled with the May 1st wave of small demand, so the price of viscose staple fiber was moderate It bottomed out, but this rebound was not lasting. Soon the industry entered the downward channel again, until the price of viscose staple fiber industry hit a new low of 8,300 yuan/ton in late July.
Big increase: August 6th – November 5th
Trough value is 8,300 yuan/ton, peak value is 10,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 26.51%
The temptation of record lows has led to the most obvious wave of transactions in viscose staple fiber this year. However, at this time, the demand for rayon yarns other than vortex spinning has not increased significantly, so viscose staple fiber is in During the execution of orders, a two-month slow growth process began. During this slow growth period, it also gradually promoted the transfer of inventory between industrial chains. In the early days of the National Day, the stocks of most enterprises of viscose staple fiber and rayon yarn had already been It was at a low level. However, a sudden wave of acute demand during the National Day made rayon yarn enterprises obviously in debt, which triggered a surge in the market. The increase continued until it slowed down in late October.
Figure 3 Comparison of daily average price trends of viscose staple fiber in 2020:
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