Recently, the PTA market has continued to weaken, and the main reason is the intensifying contradiction between supply and demand. As Baihong’s new equipment is approaching the start of production, PTA supply pressure will continue to increase, and it is difficult to say that the PTA bottom-out market will end.
Recently, due to breakthrough progress in vaccines, the downward trend of the PTA market has eased. However, it still takes time to prove whether the vaccine can be effectively popularized. In addition, the decline in the PTA market is not just caused by the epidemic, but the increasing contradiction between supply and demand. Therefore, as Baihong’s new device is approaching the start of production, PTA supply pressure will continue to increase. Futures prices are still facing greater downward pressure.
Supply pressure has increased
The last wave of PTA price bottoming was in April this year. With the domestic epidemic under effective control, downstream polyester and The recovery process of weaving enterprises has accelerated, the domestic sales market has gradually passed the cold winter, and with the introduction of a series of loose policies, PTA futures prices have risen from the low point. At present, the trend of crude oil prices is relatively tangled, while the supply and demand side of PTA is gradually becoming clearer. Especially during the period of concentrated release of new production capacity at the end of the year, PTA supply pressure once again enveloped the market.
Since this year, Xinjiang Zhongtai, Hengli and Xinfengming have been put into production one after another, contributing a total of 8.4 million tons of new production capacity, an increase of 17% compared with last year. Fujian Baihong is expected to be put into production before the end of the year. Looking at the market outlook, there are still many integrated refining and chemical units that are expected to be put into operation in the next two years, and they are still in the mid-term stage of increasing production capacity.
Benefiting from the lower price of PX, PTA production costs have dropped significantly. Even under the adverse background of supply expansion and demand hit by the epidemic, the PTA market processing fees have still performed well. The average PTA processing fees since the beginning of the year Around 636 yuan/ton, the data in the second and third quarters are even more eye-catching. Of course, high processing fees are accompanied by high construction starts. The equipment originally scheduled for maintenance in June and July has been repeatedly delayed. Therefore, although currently Hengli, Yisheng, Fuhaichuang, etc. have to complete maintenance plans in November and December. , but in fact this positive expectation has long been digested and cannot really alleviate the pressure of increased PTA supply.
Good demand is hard to find
As the domestic epidemic was effectively controlled in the second quarter, polyester factories accelerated the launch of new production capacity while resuming production. process. Up to now, a total of 4.5 million tons of new polyester production capacity have been launched in China, with a production capacity growth rate of approximately 7.7%. At present, the total polyester production capacity has risen to 63.39 million tons. Calculated based on about 86% of the operating load, a total of about 46.61 million tons of PTA is needed, and the total PTA production capacity has reached 57.39 million tons. So, in the current development of Yisheng and Xinjiang Against the background of multiple sets of production capacity maintenance in Thailand and other countries, PTA production capacity is also obviously surplus.
Spurred by the “Double Eleven”, the polyester market ushered in a wave of production and sales peaks after the National Day. However, the sustainability of downstream orders is still insufficient. After sufficient stocking in the market, polyester production and sales returned to flatness. The most obvious performance was in the short fiber market. After the pulse purchase, the market price showed a roller coaster market. From January to October, polyester production totaled 42.96 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.6%. November to December is the production period for spring orders. Due to the outbreak of the epidemic at the beginning of this year, the sales of spring orders were severely affected, thus affecting next year’s production. The production of spring orders will be a certain drag. It is expected that polyester production will be difficult to further increase in the later period, and the annual growth rate of polyester production may be 4.5%.
In addition, the epidemic has had a greater impact on textile and clothing exports. The cumulative export volume of clothing and clothing accessories from January to October was lower than that in the first three quarters of last year. As non-essential goods, textile and clothing consumption may recover more slowly, making it difficult to see compensatory consumption.
In short, the PTA industry is currently in a production capacity expansion cycle. The intensifying contradiction between supply and demand will suppress the rebound of PTA prices, and it is difficult to say that the PTA bottom-out market will end. </p
