It is said that the main impact on the textile market this year is the new crown epidemic, and the epidemic problem has been recurring, which has a great impact on the market.
With the recent news of effective vaccine development, although mass production and put into use will take at least 2 In a matter of months, the new anti-epidemic restrictions introduced in Europe will not be immediately lifted due to this good news. However, once put into use, the epidemic may be gradually controlled in the later stage, which will lead to a rebound in market confidence and the release of purchasing mentality.
E-commerce platforms kicked off the world’s largest shopping carnival on the 11th, and the touchstone to test market confidence at this stage is none other than “Double Eleven”, the largest shopping festival in China. In the e-commerce sales season, whether confidence can be restored, “Double Eleven” has become the key point that the textile fabric market is most concerned about. This year, this annual consumption feast will also be the best barometer so far showing China’s economic recovery after the epidemic.
The “Double Eleven” Shopping Festival got off to a good start. At 0:00:26 on November 11, Alibaba data showed that Tmall Double 11 successfully withstood a new peak of 583,000 orders per second, and the first wave of peaks has passed. The new record of 583,000 transactions/second is 1,457 times that of the first Double 11 in 2009. While it is faster and more stable, the resource cost of 10,000 transactions has dropped by 80% compared with 4 years ago.
At the next 0:30, Alibaba data showed that the real-time transaction volume of Tmall Double 11 Global Carnival Season in 2020 exceeded 372.3 billion. Tmall estimates that this year’s Tmall Double 11 will attract more than 800 million consumers, 250,000 brands, and 5 million merchants to participate, making it the event with the widest coverage and highest participation.
A strong start to this year’s Double Eleven may bode well for the domestic economy, further evidence that consumer spending, which has so far lagged in the economic recovery, is strengthening. According to Bloomberg, Jonathan Cheng, head of Bain & Company’s China retail business, said that “Double Eleven” has always been a very accurate predictor of the situation of retailers, brands and consumers in the next year. This year’s new crown epidemic has made this indicator even more… More importantly, in addition, China, which took the lead in recovering from the epidemic, will also become a leading indicator for other countries.
Double Eleven also has high hopes from the outside world. Revenue growth in the quarter ended September hit the slowest pace in the same period as consumers delayed orders in anticipation of shopping holiday discounts. Steven Zhu, an analyst at Hongya Century, said that “Double Eleven” performance may be a more important indicator than third-quarter results. Alibaba and its rivals are rolling out bigger and bigger promotions as they do every year. Analysts led by CITIC CLSA Elinor Leung estimate that the total amount of discounts and subsidies provided by merchants during Double Eleven may reach a record 30 billion yuan.
Domestic brands have also performed very well in the field of clothing. Bosideng is one of them. Last year, the sales across the entire network exceeded 800 million yuan, and the sales across all channels exceeded 1 billion yuan. The same is true this year. In the “Top Brands List in the First Hour of Pre-sale” on Double Eleven, which started on October 21, Bosideng ranked first in both the women’s clothing category and the men’s clothing category.
Promotions may be the key to attracting consumers. China’s retail sales increased by 3.3% year-on-year in September and may accelerate to 5% growth in October, thanks to increased travel and other consumption during the “Golden Week” holiday. “‘Double Eleven’ sales should be higher than the same period last year, but remember, retail sales growth before the new crown epidemic was 8%,” said Shaun Roache, chief economist of S&P Asia Pacific. “If ‘Double Eleven’ is much better than expected, we should pay close attention to sales in December to see if this is a real rebound, or if consumers are stocking up and remaining cautious.”
After “Double Eleven”
The vaccine is good for cardiac stimulation and is expected to be perfectly connected with subsequent orders
After this wave of clothing rush buying on Double Eleven, the inventory of clothing companies has been restored to a certain extent. With relief, companies may gain momentum to produce new orders for next spring and summer. Part of the inventory was disposed of, and the funds in the hands of clothing companies were withdrawn, and more funds were available to start orders for next year.
From the short-term perspective of the foreign trade market, Christmas will have a great impact on the sales of foreign terminal clothing. For regions that have not canceled the Christmas market, the good news of the vaccine will stimulate to a certain extent. Clothing buying momentum. In the near future, the sales volume of winter clothing produced this year may return to normal levels in previous years, and the possibility of large quantities of unsalable products is reduced. This is undoubtedly great news for terminal clothing manufacturers.
In addition, after “Double Eleven”, it is also the time to start spring and summer orders. According to the past, clothing stores can launch spring clothing after the Chinese New Year, that is, at the end of February. There are only about 3 months of production time left from now, and the production of fabrics must be completed before the Spring Festival, so this is a good time to place an order quickly.
Vaccines will also play a major role in promoting orders for next year. Next year’s Spring Festival epidemic will most likely be alleviated with the vaccine. Consumer demand for spring clothing may also increase. Market confidence will recover. Next year’s spring Demand for summer orders is expected to increase. Looking further ahead, it may even affect next year’s autumn and winter clothing orders.
If this year’s winter clothing sells well during the Christmas season and there is not much inventory left, then the demand for stocking next year’s autumn and winter clothing will increase.�There will be no situation where some clothing brands announce the cancellation of some autumn orders this year. In other words, in the post-epidemic era, the impact caused in the early stage will gradually be eliminated, especially the foreign trade market may usher in disruptive changes.
In general, the editor believes that after “Double Eleven”, orders will be launched in the spring and summer next year, and there is a high possibility that the order volume will gradually increase, and we will be able to usher in a period of sales. Wave of orders. However, we still need to keep an eye on the recurrence of the epidemic and the cancellation of overseas orders.