In preparation for “Double Eleven” and “Double Twelve”, terminal orders exploded, which in turn drove weaving factories to replenish raw materials on a large scale.
As one of the textile raw materials, the market of staple fiber also ushered in a wave of pulsating prices after the National Day. In fact, this year, against the backdrop of the impact on most industries, the short fiber market stands out. Both profits and output have increased significantly compared with the same period in previous years, becoming the most eye-catching scenery in the polyester market.
The supply and demand pattern has changed, and demand has surged in the second half of the year
Short fiber has become the most dazzling polyester industry this year Star
In the past five years, the direct-spun polyester staple fiber industry has gradually transformed from oversupply to a balance between supply and demand. Since the implementation of the “waste ban” policy in 2017, direct-spun polyester staple fiber has replaced some recycled polyester staple fibers in a low-end spinning and filling industry. The industry’s supply and demand relationship has been rebalanced, and the industry’s profitability has increased significantly. It also prompted the polyester staple fiber industry to usher in a peak of capacity expansion in 2018.
Currently, the supply and demand of short fiber are in a relatively tight balance, and the product inventory of short fiber factories has remained at a relatively low level for a long time. Since April this year, the inventory of direct-spun staple fiber finished products has been within 10 days. During this investigation, the reporter also learned that currently, Fujian staple fiber factories are basically operating at full capacity. Excluding the Spring Festival and epidemic maintenance losses, the current output of some companies has increased by 10% year-on-year, and sales are also better than in previous years. In previous years, the market showed the characteristics of off-peak and peak seasons, but this year, the off-peak and peak seasons are not obvious. There has been basically no production reduction after the Spring Festival, reflecting the strong demand for short fiber.
Since late August, the operating rate of polyester shorts has continued to remain above 95%, reaching 99.3% at the end of September. With the return of orders in October, the short fiber market atmosphere has picked up significantly. It is currently in a state of high load, high profit and low inventory. The overall situation is at a better level compared to other polyester products and raw materials, so it is more reasonable for short fiber to maintain a certain profit. At present, short fiber manufacturers are basically at full capacity, with high output and limited short-term supply increases.
After the National Day, the short fiber market showed a pulse-like market, which is also related to the increase in downstream demand orders from the end of September to October. Centralized distribution of relevant information.
In this regard, GF Futures analyst Zhang Xiaozhen explained that this year’s “Double Eleven” shipping rules have changed. It used to be shipped in 20 days, but this year it was shipped in 5 days. In addition, the cold winter is expected to increase the demand for warm textile raw materials. DTY porous is commonly used in warm products such as polar fleece, and its sales are relatively smooth. In addition, due to the impact of the epidemic, the production of large-scale garment factories in the international market has been intermittent, resulting in delayed delivery of export orders and the return of overseas orders, mainly the transfer of orders from India, which has led to unprecedented enthusiasm in the market for textile raw materials polyester, spandex, cotton, and viscose. Weaving factories are busy rushing orders, and yarn mill inventories have dropped to low levels, forcing them to concentrate on stocking up. As a result, most short fiber factories have almost no inventory, and some are 20 to 30 days out of stock.
Zhu Shaowei, general manager of operations of Fujian Jingwei New Fiber Technology Industrial Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as Jingwei New Fiber), said that the domestic epidemic has been effectively controlled, which directly stimulates the return of orders from labor-intensive industries in countries with severe epidemics. , coupled with the changes in the “Double Eleven” delivery rules, after the National Day, companies focused on replenishing inventory and rushing production.
During the investigation, the reporter learned that some factories’ textile and garment export orders were oversold by 1 to 2 months, or even further, and most short fiber factories were also oversold until mid-to-late November. Short-term short-term staple fiber supply is in a tight state. Taking Jingwei New Fiber as an example, they are all loaded and shipped directly after production on the same day, and they are often rushed by customers, which is enough to show that the effective downstream demand is strong.
The hot weather in South China staple fiber factories: generally oversold for 20-30 days
The raw materials of downstream yarn mills are oversold for 30 days, and the finished products of yarn mills are oversold for 30 days
“Negative inventory” “oversold” “Selling” is a common phenomenon in the current short fiber market. According to interviews, most short fiber factories in South China are oversold by about 30 days.
In previous years, oversold phenomena were rare. However, in June this year, short fiber factories once experienced negative inventories. At that time, this situation lasted for two weeks. In addition, after the National Day, terminal orders exploded, driving terminal weaving factories to replenish raw materials on a large scale. Staple fiber factory inventories dropped sharply, and the average corporate inventory became negative again. In the case of oversold conditions, all the products of the staple fiber factory were booked, and the downstream spinning mills had to pick up the goods every day.
“Short fiber factories are significantly oversold, reflecting the strong demand for short fiber terminals. Although the downstream stocking volume is relatively high, some companies are still willing to stock up due to the impact of subsequent orders.” Dadi Futures Analyst Jiang Shuopeng said.
Short fiber procurement is a pulse purchase. Compared with the irregular procurement of filament, the downstream procurement of short fiber is more regular. “Oversold” is a manifestation of terminal impulse purchasing. It is actually an early release of future demand, or the current situation is overdrafting future demand.
“Oversold by short fiber factories is a common phenomenon in the industry. If oversold,If it continues, it means that the demand has been good. If the oversold scale shrinks or becomes a positive inventory, it means that the demand is weakening. “Zheng Youfei, an analyst at Yide Futures, said that on the one hand, some cotton mills are relatively well-funded and have the conditions to buy goods; on the other hand, cotton mill operators tend to be younger and have relatively flexible thinking, and Fujian factories are oversold and volatile. Higher than in East China.
Judging from this visit to the Fujian market, the short-term downstream demand is indeed similar to market rumors, but the structure of demand is different. Currently, more domestic demand is concentrated As for the performance of the release, all links in the industrial chain are concentrated on replenishing stocks, while the contribution of external orders is relatively small.
“After this round of pulse-like market conditions, the market is paying more attention to subsequent performance. “Zheng Youfei believes that staple fiber factories in South China are generally oversold for 20-30 days, raw materials for downstream yarn mills are oversold for about 1 month, and finished products of yarn mills are also oversold for about 1 month. In the short term, there is no problem with demand, but in the later period The continuity of orders is doubtful, which is also the main reason for the recent downturn in short fiber production and sales.
In fact, during the survey process, most companies held a relatively positive attitude towards the current negative inventory situation and believed that Oversold shows that the short fiber and downstream yarn links are operating well. However, some companies hold a different view.
“Currently, Fujian spinning mills have short fiber stocks until mid-November. If there are no new orders from cotton mills in the next two weeks, the sustainability of subsequent demand will be questioned. “Jiang Shuopeng said that there is great uncertainty about whether the short fiber market can maintain the current prosperity in the future, which depends on the pace of downstream replenishment, the continuity of terminal orders and the overseas epidemic situation. If the overseas epidemic situation improves significantly, it will inevitably bring about a wave of Replenishment demand.
In summary, driven by strong terminal demand, short fiber will continue to rise. In addition, from a price point of view, the price of short fiber does not seem to have ended yet, although 19 The overall market situation in 2018 is not very good, but the price of polyester staple fiber can still be maintained at around 7,000, and the highest price of polyester staple fiber in 2018 reached 11,470 yuan/ton. Therefore, whether from the perspective of supply and demand or price, the price of staple fiber The rise is not difficult to understand.
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