As of last Friday, the number of registered warehouse receipts for Zheng Cotton was 4,557, an increase of 84 from the previous day, and the number of valid forecasts was 1,540, an increase of 47 from the previous day. The number of valid forecast registrations has reached the highest value this year. The total number of warehouse receipts and forecasts is 6,097, equivalent to approximately 240,000 tons of cotton. What problems can we find from the changes in its registration volume?
According to statistics, the number of effective forecasts for Zheng cotton warehouse receipts in early November was only more than 500, and half a month Less than three times as many. This may be caused by two factors: First, new cotton processing and public inspections are carried out steadily. As of November 12, a total of 2.64 million tons of lint cotton in Xinjiang have been processed. New cotton is on the market. Companies have registered warehouse receipts to avoid market risks. , there is a need to reduce financial pressure. In 2019/20, from early to mid-November, the effective forecast of warehouse receipts doubled. It can be seen from this that there is a high probability that the number of warehouse receipt registrations will rebound. Recently, Zheng cotton has continued to decline, and the risk aversion mentality of the industry has further strengthened, which has once again played a certain role in promoting the progress of registration. However, it is worth noting that the number of valid forecast warehouse receipts in the same period last year was 3,256, which was much higher than the base number this year. This involves another important reason. The cost of new cotton for most ginning companies this year is higher than last year, and the current futures price cannot cover the cost of new cotton, forming a substantial “obstacle” for companies.
The number of valid forecasts for warehouse receipts has increased rapidly, but the growth rate of registration volume in November has been relatively slow, and has even experienced negative growth many times, which reflects the strong desire of market participants for growth. Wait and see mentality. Some industry players believe that compared with previous years, the cotton market in 2020 has encountered a historical test of the epidemic, and its value has not yet been reflected. The high production costs may provide excellent support for rising prices in the future. In addition, Sino-US economic and trade may improve next year. As the vaccine is approaching and China’s economic recovery is expected, some industry players have a strong mentality of entering the market at a high price, which may inhibit the recovery of Zheng cotton’s registered warehouse receipts to a certain extent. </p
