On Wednesday evening, Beijing time, big news came again about the new crown vaccine!
According to foreign media news on November 18, the American pharmaceutical company Pfizer announced that the vaccine jointly developed by it and the German biotechnology company BioNTech achieved an effective rate of 95% in the final data analysis of clinical trials, which has met the requirements. The request for emergency use authorization will be submitted to regulatory authorities within days.
Pfizer previously stated that its new crown vaccine can prevent 90% of infections and is expected to apply for emergency use authorization in late November. If the application is successful, it means that the vaccine may be available in the United States by the end of this year.
In the crude oil market, the Saudi Energy Minister said on Wednesday that OPEC+ has successfully brought stability to the oil market and has the willingness and ability to continue to bring more stability to the market. It has not yet been decided whether to extend production cuts. The Saudi energy minister also said discussions would take place once Libyan oil production returns to pre-October 2018 levels.
In the view of market participants, the resonance of weak fundamentals and strong expectations has caused crude oil prices to fluctuate in the short term. In order to stabilize current oil prices, OPEC+ is likely to postpone its production increase plan, and in the future with the development of vaccines Promotion, crude oil demand is expected to gradually pick up, and over-allocation may be considered in the medium to long term.
Buoyed by vaccine news and expectations for the postponement of OPEC+’s production increase plan, international oil prices performed strongly on Wednesday. As of the close of the day, the NYMEX WTI crude oil futures December contract closed at $41.82/barrel, an increase of 0.94%; the ICE Brent crude oil futures January contract closed at $44.34/barrel, an increase of 1.35%.
On Wednesday, the trends of non-ferrous metals were divergent, with Shanghai aluminum and Shanghai zinc performing well. During the night trading session on Wednesday night, Shanghai Aluminum’s main 2012 contract continued to rise, with an increase of more than 2% at one time, reaching a maximum of 15,945 yuan/ton, the highest level since November 2017. Market participants believe that the driving logic of Shanghai Aluminum lies in the strengthening of fundamentals. The increase in the supply side in the fourth quarter was less than expected, consumption performance was relatively strong, and inventories continued to be reduced. The supply of goods in the spot market this week is tighter than in the previous period. Against the background of low inventory and tight spot supply, Shanghai Aluminum broke through the previous high.
International oil prices rose strongly
Boosted by vaccine news and expectations of postponement of OPEC+ production increase plan, international oil prices performed strongly on Wednesday. As of the close of the day, the NYMEX WTI crude oil futures December contract closed at $41.82/barrel, an increase of 0.94%; the ICE Brent crude oil futures January contract closed at $44.34/barrel, an increase of 1.35%.
The Saudi Energy Minister said on Wednesday that OPEC+ has successfully brought stability to the oil market and has the willingness and ability to continue to bring more stability to the market. It has not yet been decided whether to extend production cuts. The Saudi energy minister also said discussions would take place once Libyan oil production returns to pre-October 2018 levels.
Zheng Mengqi, an energy researcher at Zhonghui Futures, told reporters that the crude oil market currently resonates with weak reality and strong expectations. In terms of weak reality, the main reason is that the recovery of Libyan crude oil supply far exceeded market expectations, while demand was relatively weak due to the impact of the epidemic. Since mid-to-late September, Libya has gradually lifted force majeure at ports and oil fields. Crude oil production has also increased from 155,000 barrels/day in September to the current 1.145 million barrels/day, and is expected to increase to 1.3 million barrels/day in the short term. And Libya stated that it will not be restricted by OPEC+ production reduction quotas until production returns to 1.7 million barrels per day. With supply increasing and demand declining, crude oil’s current fundamentals are weak.
It is reported that the strong expectations are mainly due to the fact that OPEC+ may postpone its production increase plan next year and that vaccine research and development is progressing well. OPEC+ will make a final decision on whether to adjust crude oil supply at its meeting from November 30 to December 1. Taking into account the rapid recovery of Libyan crude oil supply and the current weak demand caused by the second epidemic, OPEC lowered its global crude oil demand forecast in its latest monthly report, and the market expects a postponement of the production increase plan in the first quarter of next year. In addition, the research and development of Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are making good progress. The United States may obtain emergency use authorization for both vaccines in December, and demand is expected to improve.
“The resonance of weak fundamentals and strong expectations has caused crude oil prices to fluctuate in the short term. In order to stabilize current oil prices, OPEC+ is likely to postpone its production increase plan, and with the promotion of vaccines in the future, crude oil demand is expected to It will gradually pick up, and you can consider buying more in the medium and long term.” Zheng Mengqi said.
On Wednesday, most domestic energy and chemical sectors fell. Regarding the decline in rubber futures, Chen Dong, senior researcher at Baocheng Futures Energy, believes that there are three reasons behind the decline in the Hujiao 2101 contract: First, the previous round of rises has digested all the positive factors for the improvement in the supply and demand structure of the rubber market, and the futures price is lacking. Momentum to continue rising. Second, after the signing of RCEP, my country is expected to lower import tariffs on natural rubber in 2021. This will have a certain impact on the domestic natural rubber industry in the short term, especially on the relatively high spot price of domestic full latex, which will have a greater impact on Shanghai Rubber Futures 2101 The contract caused a large negative impact. Third, the overseas epidemic continues to spread. Although there is a breakthrough in vaccine development, economic recession in Europe and the United States is still unavoidable in the short term. This is more likely for Chinese tire companies to lose demand for overseas orders. The hidden dangers of weak demand have emerged, which has lowered rubber prices. Downward pressure increases.
The reporter found that among the energy and chemical sectors, styrene ranked first in decline. Industry insiders believe that styrene continued to weaken after an intraday correction on Tuesday. Following Monday’s sharp rise in daily trading, short-term market sentiment has�Fall back. However, considering that the current inventory-to-consumption ratio in East China is significantly lower than the same period in previous years, and that the South China market is still out of stock, it is temporarily difficult to drive a price turnaround due to the contraction in demand caused by cooling in some parts of the north. In this case, the strong trend of styrene is likely not to end, so we should be cautious in the short term.
Zhai Qidi, a mid-term researcher at Founder, told reporters that on Wednesday, the center of gravity of styrene futures prices fell back from its high level. From the perspective of short-term fundamentals, the pattern of styrene destocking in November has not been broken. As of Wednesday, the inventory of styrene at the main port in East China has dropped to 122,500 tons. The arrival volume at the main port next week will still be small. It is expected that the inventory at the main port will drop to 50,000-100,000 tons by the end of November. However, we need to be vigilant that import volume is expected to pick up in December, and the logic of destocking styrene may end in early December, when the main port will gradually shift from destocking to destocking. From a mid- to long-term fundamental perspective, there are still huge production capacity plans for styrene in 2021, but the growth rate of downstream demand is still lower than the growth rate of supply. The tight supply and demand of styrene is not sustainable. The recent fall in futures prices is mainly due to the rapid rise in styrene prices. Except for ABS, which can smoothly transfer costs to the terminal, PS and EPS prices have not increased as much as styrene, and their production profits have been severely compressed. In the past two days, some PS and EPS factories have successively announced maintenance plans. In the near future, the operating rate of downstream PS and EPS will decline, and the demand for styrene will weaken.
The benefits brought by the destocking of styrene at the main port have gradually come to an end. The futures price has fallen from the high level, and the mentality of the holders has been damaged. It is expected that the hidden inventory will gradually become explicit in the near future. With the rebound in imports in December and the launch of new production capacity early next year, styrene supply will once again become surplus. “The current valuation of styrene is at a high level. As the supply and demand pattern weakens, the market may suppress its valuation, and the center of gravity of mid- and long-term styrene futures prices will continue to fall.” Zhai Qidi said.
Compared with other energy-chemical varieties, asphalt’s fundamentals are weaker. It is understood that although the operating rate of domestic petroleum asphalt installations has declined slightly, it is still higher than the same period last year, and the asphalt market supply is relatively sufficient. As the temperature drops, the rigid demand for asphalt in the Northeast and Northwest regions has basically stagnated; the demand for asphalt in North China and the Huanghuai region has also gradually weakened; the rigid demand for asphalt in East China, South China, and Southwest China has been relatively stable. The destocking node of asphalt from social warehouses this year has been delayed, the inventory level is high, the superimposed factory warehouses have increased, and the fundamentals of asphalt are weak. Zheng Mengqi believes that in the short term, asphalt prices will oscillate weakly; in the long term, asphalt accumulation reduces profits and forces refineries to reduce asphalt supply, which may push prices upward, but it remains to be seen whether this path can be realized.
In addition, LPG has risen slightly for three consecutive days, but its fundamentals have not changed much recently. It is understood that in terms of supply, the operating rate of domestic refineries remains relatively high, there is no worry about the supply of domestic gas, and there is no pressure to unload imported gas for the time being, so the overall supply is relatively stable. On the demand side, as the temperature drops, liquefied gas will gradually usher in the peak demand season, which will provide certain support for liquefied gas prices. As the LPG futures price is anchored and drifts between Shandong and South China, the current liquefied gas price in Shandong is still low, which also restricts the upward range of liquefied gas prices. “Liquefied gas is still mainly oscillating. Under the logic of the peak demand season, it can be considered to be bullish on dips.” Zheng Mengqi said. </p
