According to feedback from cotton traders in Zhangjiagang, Qingdao, Shanghai and other places, since mid-November, not only have there been very few quotations for bonded and customs-cleared Brazilian cotton at ports (including 2019 and 2020), but the quotations for Brazilian cotton are still “one mouthful” regardless of basis difference. “prices” are all in line with US cotton, and some large and medium-sized sellers do not even accept price negotiations or offer discounts. Therefore, cotton textile companies and middlemen who need to replenish their inventory have to turn their inquiry and procurement focus to port US cotton and Indian cotton (CCI round). out). The sales focus of foreign investors and large-scale cotton trading companies is Brazilian cotton with shipping dates in November/December/January (some traders provide RMB prices to book Brazilian cotton with shipping dates in December, indicating that the quota issue within the 1% tariff has been resolved, and only waits for the cotton to arrive Hong Kong customs clearance), and the quantity is relatively high.
Textile companies in Zhengzhou, Henan, Zibo, Shandong and other places stated that Qingdao customs clearance M1-1/8 (strong 28-29GPT) quoted price of 15,300-15,400 yuan/ton on November 18-19 (a large cotton merchant ” “One price” is 15,700 yuan/ton, both are settled by net weight), M1-1/8 (CIF Qingdao or Zhangjiagang) is quoted at 15,000-15,100 yuan/ton; the current US cotton 31-3-36 in ports in Qingdao Port, Southern Jiangsu and other places ( The basis price of strong 28GPT) is 15400-15500 yuan/ton, which is in line with the quotation of Brazilian cotton of the same quality and grade; while the quotation of Indian cotton M1-5/32 (strong 29GPT) is only 14400-14500 yuan/ton, which is lower than the Brazilian cotton 800- 1,000 yuan/ton. There is an increasingly obvious trend that Brazilian cotton resources at ports are scarce, prices are high, and prices cannot move.
Some cotton-related companies judge that although Brazilian cotton exports were relatively active in September/October, the pressure on ginners, export companies, and traders has been released to a certain extent. Sellers have successively raised basis margins significantly, causing Brazil to Compared with West African cotton, Indian cotton, Uzbek cotton, and American cotton, the cost performance of cotton has dropped rapidly (several foreign businessmen reported that in the past half month, buyers from China, Pakistan and other countries have inquired about West African cotton in 2019/20 and 2020/21). Prices and signing atmosphere have shown a relatively obvious recovery); coupled with CONAB’s prediction that the total volume of Brazilian cotton in 2020/21 will reach 2.8166 million tons and the negative impacts of the second and third rounds of the global COVID-19 epidemic, Brazilian cotton It is only a matter of time before the basis peaks and falls. Therefore, domestic cotton enterprises and traders should “hope more and move less” and wait for the opportunity.
A Qingdao cotton company analyzed that bonded and customs-cleared Brazilian cotton at ports decreased significantly in November. On the one hand, it was related to the boom in shipments in August/September/October, which exceeded traders’ expectations; on the other hand, it was due to the out-of-control epidemic. It is related to the overall postponement of Brazilian cotton processing, road transportation, warehousing, shipping, etc.; in addition, the Brazilian currency real has continued to weaken against the US dollar recently. Therefore, domestic enterprises need to be cautious when signing contracts to purchase Brazilian cotton with a shipping date of December/January, and pay attention to whether the seller can ship and deliver goods in time. </p
