On Tuesday Eastern Time, driven by multiple factors such as the elimination of uncertainty about the U.S. election, favorable vaccines, and easing policies of global central banks, the global market ushered in a “carnival” before Thanksgiving.
The three major U.S. stock indexes collectively closed higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.54%, closing above 30,000 points for the first time. The S&P 500 Index rose 1.62%, setting a new closing record high. The Nasdaq Composite Index rose 1.31%.
Germany’s DAX30 index closed up 1.26%, at 13292.05 points; Britain’s FTSE 100 index rose 1.53%, at 6430.60 points; France’s CAC40 index rose 1.21%, at 5558.42 points.
WTI January crude oil futures closed up $1.85, or 4.29%, at $44.91 per barrel.
The crude oil futures 2101 contract of the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed up 6.64% in night trading, rising for the third consecutive trading day, at 290.60 yuan/barrel, a new closing high since September.
COMEX December gold futures closed down 1.8% at $1,804.60 per ounce, hitting a new closing low since mid-July and falling 3.6% in the last two trading days.
Investor enthusiasm for Bitcoin continues. Bitcoin surged again on Tuesday Eastern Time, breaking through $19,000 per coin in one fell swoop, just shy of the record high of just under $20,000 per coin set in December 2017. As of press time, Bitcoin has fallen rapidly in the short term, once falling below US$19,000 per coin, and as low as US$18,979.21 per coin.
Redfield, Director of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention: Vaccines will be rolled out starting in the second week of December. Until a vaccine is available, masks and social distancing are crucial.
According to China Daily, on Monday local time, the new coronavirus vaccine “CoronaVac” developed by China Sinovac Biotech Company officially entered the Phase III clinical trial stage in Ankara, Turkey. Preliminary test results last week showed the vaccine quickly induced an immune response, although the antibodies produced were fewer than those detected in people who have recovered from COVID-19. Researchers say based on past experience, “Clairford” can provide sufficient protection. On the 19th, 120,000 doses of the vaccine arrived in Brazil from China.
French President Macron said that the blockade measures will be gradually relaxed from November 28 and can end on December 15. A vaccine is expected to be available by the end of December or early January.
Real-time statistics from Johns Hopkins University in the United States show that as of around 6:00 on November 25, Beijing time, the number of confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia worldwide has risen to 59,903,236, and the cumulative number of deaths has exceeded 1.4 million.
Precious metal prices fell
Gold and silver futures prices continued to fall on Tuesday. Zhan Dapeng, senior analyst of precious metals at Everbright Futures, believes that judging from the timing of gold’s decline on Monday night, the information is directly related to the Reuters report that “the Trump administration will begin the transition process,” which indicates macro uncertainty. Sexual risks have been further reduced, and market risk aversion has weakened.
Market participants believe that the downward trigger for gold and silver on Tuesday was good news about the new crown vaccine and good U.S. economic data. The above two news delayed the urgency of short-term U.S. policy stimulus. “The magnitude of the decline in gold and silver is mainly related to the breakdown of key support levels. The external gold price of $1,850 per ounce was an important support level in the early stage. The breakdown triggered technical bear selling. The volatility of silver is higher than that of gold. During the decline, The decline is greater than that of gold,” said Li Xiaojie, senior analyst of precious metals at Hongyuan Futures.
It is reported that the current market is still in the optimistic expectation of economic recovery in Europe and the United States and that the new crown vaccine will be launched as soon as possible. The resulting logic is the tightening of monetary policy and the expectation of rising nominal interest rates. Naturally, it is quite optimistic about the trend of gold. unfavorable. In addition, this round of gold oscillations has taken too long to consolidate, and global gold ETF holdings have experienced large-scale outflows in recent trading days, indicating that bull investors are losing patience.
However, the recent rise in risk assets is also a reflection of expectations for future inflation. The probability of interest rate hikes has not increased, and real interest rates are still in negative interest rates and declining channels. Therefore, gold has not completely lost support in the medium to long term. Entering December, under the expectation of further tightening of liquidity near the end of the year, optimism will be tempered, and funds will be reallocated to safe-haven assets, which will be an opportunity for precious metals to resume their rise. Judging from the trend in the past three years, gold and silver prices have the highest probability of rising in December and January. “We are currently approaching the time when the U.S. non-farm payrolls data will be released in November. This may be the last test for gold investors. It is recommended to buy at low prices.” said Zhan Dapeng, an analyst at Everbright Futures.
As for the performance of international precious metal prices in 2021, Li Xiaojie believes that monetary policy will still be in an easing cycle in 2021, the global economy will gradually recover, inflation expectations will also rise, and the actual yield of five-year government bonds will also decline. It will continue to support the price of gold. From the perspective of real interest rates, the structural bull market for gold is not over yet. From a policy perspective, the rhythm of fiscal policy will affect market expectations, which will in turn affect the fluctuation rhythm of precious metals. From a variety perspective, silver fluctuates more than gold.
According to the reporter’s understanding, gold is still an important means of hedging and asset allocation. On the one hand, the recovery of the economy in 2021 will�Affected by restrictions and year-end inventory issues, the production plan for the year ahead will be significantly slowed down, but imports are also actively promoted to supplement it. In terms of demand, the demand for ships is still affected by the epidemic factors, and seasonal demand has also declined. The overall price performance fluctuated upwards, and attention is paid to the sustainability of oil prices.
Coal and coke trends are diverging
The coal and coke market has seen relatively large differentiation recently. In terms of coke, the recent policy of eliminating backward coking production capacity in Shanxi, Hebei, and Henan has been gradually implemented. The current warehouse receipt cost is about 2,400 yuan/ton. The early coke disk price reflected 1-2 rounds of increases in advance. After the inventory inflection point appeared, the coke disk price was basically It reflects the current expectation of eliminating production capacity, and the marginal impact of overcapacity reduction will gradually decrease with the implementation of policies. In terms of coking coal, on the one hand, environmental protection inspections in Shanxi have been strict recently, and the production efficiency of some coal washing plants and coal mines in the province has declined. In addition, there have been several mining accidents in Shanxi recently. The government has launched a three-month nationwide coal mine safety inspection since early November. Production rectification has led to a decline in coal mine output; on the other hand, the domestic epidemic in Mongolia has worsened. Although customs clearance at Ganqimaodu Port has been normal, the customs clearance volume has continued to decline recently, with only about 200 vehicles passing through the port on a daily basis. Under this influence, the number of imported Mongolian coal at the port has increased The inventory has dropped to less than 10,000 tons. Under the combined influence of domestic and foreign factors, high-quality low-sulfur main coking coal is in relatively short supply, and the market is still worried about future port clearance volumes, which has led to a sharp rise in coal prices recently.
It is reported that the bidding price of Mongolian 5# clean coal in Tangshan area of Hebei Province was raised by 80-100 yuan/ton on the 24th. The current mainstream transaction price of Mongolian 5# clean coal market in the local Tangshan area ranges from 1490-1510 yuan/ton. Due to the reduction of port customs clearance and the very limited import of coking coal from the coast, coal prices have risen sharply amid the active increase in inventory in the downstream.
Gu Meng, a black researcher at Orient Securities Futures, believes that although there will still be a lot of production capacity that needs to be eliminated in Shanxi, Hebei, and Henan by the end of the year, considering that the north has gradually entered the heating season in the near future, some coking plants have local heating tasks. , the elimination time may be extended to the end of the heating season next year. Against the background of seasonal decline in terminal demand, the marginal impact of coking production capacity elimination at the end of the year has gradually weakened, leading to a gradual increase in steel mills’ intentions to suppress coking profits. As for coking coal, the deterioration of the epidemic in Mongolia has led to the delay in port customs clearance returning to normal levels. Coupled with the recent strong domestic environmental protection and security inspections, the shortage of high-quality low-sulfur coal resources, and the continued rise in warehouse receipt costs, coking coal is still expected to continue to rise in the short term. Strong.
“At present, we need to focus on imported coking coal. Australia’s annual coal import volume is about 30 million tons, accounting for about 5% of the total domestic coking coal. Most of the domestic coke production capacity next year will be newly added. If imports are stopped, it will have a negative impact on East China. and the purchasing of coking coal from steel plants along the northeastern coast will have an impact, but the impact is expected to be limited.” said Zhang Yuan, a coal and coke researcher at Yide Futures.
On Tuesday, ZC2101, the main contract of Zhengzhou Coal, oscillated upward, opening at 608.6 yuan/ton and closing at 614.4 yuan/ton, up 1.45%, with a trading volume of 243,500 lots and a position of 170,000 lots. “Kengkou prices are strong due to local sales and weather factors. Port costs and selling prices are both high. There are very few “inquiries”. The policy stance on the import side is clear, but the coal source is ‘far away and water cannot quench the near thirst’. The short-term high caloric shortage may be a contradiction. Pushing up prices,” said Mao Jun, senior strategist at Jinying Capital.
Wang Xiaonan, senior researcher of thermal coal at Baocheng Futures, believes that judging from the current situation, supply and demand are still tight.
From the supply side, although the National Development and Reform Commission is actively promoting the release of domestic coal production capacity, safety accidents have occurred frequently and safety inspections have been intensified. Near the end of the year, it is expected that all coal mines will focus on ensuring safety and supply. It is difficult for the terminal to achieve large-scale growth. In addition, traders’ shipping profits are sluggish, the transportation of coal from the origin to the intermediate links is sluggish, and the Bohai Rim ports are facing difficulties in accumulating inventory, and the tight supply situation has been difficult to improve.
On the demand side, with the arrival of winter, residential electricity demand has entered the peak season. As the seasonality of hydropower weakens, the substitution effect of thermal power has faded, and the rigid demand for coal power has increased. Although in order to prevent the cold winter, downstream companies have actively stocked up inventory. The current inventory is at the highest level in recent years, which will alleviate the peak season purchasing pressure to a certain extent. However, the year-on-year increase in inventory is difficult to meet the demand growth during the peak season, and the active purchasing situation is expected to continue.
Wang Xiaonan believes that the supply in the upstream and midstream is tight, and the peak demand season is coming, and the market still has strong bullish expectations. Without significant changes in the supply and demand pattern, prices may continue to be strong. However, judging from the frequent approvals of high-quality production capacity and several documents issued by the National Development and Reform Commission, the policy side’s tolerance for prices in the “red range” is declining. In the later stage, it is necessary to pay attention to the actual effect of specific policy control measures. “For example, there have been frequent news about the relaxation of import restrictions recently, but it has not been confirmed yet. Once the import restrictions are relaxed, and the import advantage is obvious, the supplement of foreign trade coal will change the domestic supply and demand pattern.” Based on the futures market, in the past two days, due to production The snowfall in the region has made external transportation more difficult and the expected relaxation of import restrictions has been difficult to implement. The main contract price of thermal coal has ended its early adjustment and rebounded higher. It is still steadily on the upward channel. The mid- to long-term watershed between long and short is at 590-600 yuan/ton. </p
