Since mid-November, with PTA reaching a new low, coupled with domestic and foreign vaccine and macro-positive news coming one after another, the bargain hunters seem to have seen the light again. The almost extinguished flame of value investment has begun to burn again, and PTA futures prices have begun to rebound. , as of November 23, the 01 contract on the market has rebounded from a new low of more than 250 yuan/ton for the year, and the spot price in East China has increased by 200 yuan/ton. Since the rise, a very serious and practical question has been faced by investors and industry professionals: Is this round of market rise a rebound or a reversal?
Social inventory pressure is huge: Although the PTA processing range has narrowed in November, the current overcapacity situation still remains at 500 yuan/ton Nearby, the processing interval is still good. Supported by this, the PTA device maintenance plan in November is basically within expectations. The overall average monthly load of domestic PTA is basically maintained at nearly 89%, and the monthly supply is roughly around 4.4 million tons. In terms of downstream polyester demand, although new polyester equipment is expected to be put into production, and some orders for domestic and foreign sales are showing a large volume, due to the excessive inventory backlog in the early stage, the industry’s high inventory pressure is still great, resulting in a small increase in enthusiasm for weaving production, 11 The overall monthly polyester load increase pressure is still relatively large, and the monthly supply of polyester is expected to be roughly around 4.67 million tons. Calculating the supply and demand in November, the daily output of PTA increased significantly, while the demand for downstream polyester changed little. PTA once again accumulated a large inventory of nearly 300,000 tons in November. The daily accumulation of the entire month was mainly concentrated in the second half of the month. The current social inventory increased to 366.79 At around 10,000 tons, inventory pressure is once again approaching the high level in recent years, which is difficult to alleviate in the short term, limiting the upside potential of the futures market.
The basis continues to maintain a weak structure: entering November, there are few equipment maintenance, superimposed pressure on old and new goods, and storage capacity restrictions, making it difficult for the price difference to be effective Improvement, as of the time of writing, the spot basis is at 01 contract discount of 180 yuan / ton, and there is more discussion. At present, PTA will continue to accumulate inventory significantly from November to December. Spot pressure has impacted the market. PTA social inventory has not yet seen any relief. The pressure on the basis spread is huge, and the weak structure will continue to be maintained.
Comprehensive consideration: The author believes that although PTA cannot remain so low in the long term, the foreign epidemic has not yet ended, and the PTA market supply and demand are still expected to weaken. The market may continue to repeat before it completely reverses. . It should be said that the mid-term driver is not strong, but in the short term, the bullish logic of low absolute prices has returned, which may push up futures prices. However, considering that supply and demand are expected to weaken, the basis is difficult to repair well, and the PTA processing range Fairly acceptable, all restrict the upside space of PTA futures. It is recommended to continue to maintain the view of short selling on highs in the 01 contract. It can be operated on a rolling basis. During the rebound, do not chase the rise. In terms of arbitrage, the 1-5 contracts are suitable for counter-arbitrage logic, -100 to -110 Positions near RMB/ton can be held, and the reference target is around -130-140 RMB/ton. </p
