After touching 14,600 yuan/ton, the Zheng Cotton CF2101 contract turned downward and failed to break through the previous high of 15,305 yuan/ton. Although crude oil and other commodities have repeatedly hit new highs, and vaccine news continues to be good, Zheng Cotton’s short-term The upward momentum is limited, and the range fluctuation trend of “top and bottom” is maintained. The fluctuation range is temporarily focused on 13,900-15,300 yuan/ton.
As of November 25, the number of valid + forecast warehouse receipts for Zheng Cotton is 8,154, which is equivalent to about 320,000 tons of lint cotton, which is far lower than the same period last year. When the future cotton market is still full of uncertainty, , there is great hedging pressure in the market. As long as there is a suitable position, ginning companies and traders will actively hedge and control risks. When the main contract of Zheng cotton reached 14,600 yuan/ton, there was room for hedging, and you can see that many hedging orders began to intervene.
After several repeated runs of the market, companies expect the hedging points to continue to decline. In the early stages of acquisitions in Xinjiang, the price of seed cotton rose rapidly. Combined with the cost of lint acquisition and processing at that time, when the market was at its craziest, corporate hedging expectations were even above 16,000 yuan/ton. However, as market conditions and lint costs continue to change, hedging is expected to The point has dropped again, and Xinjiang companies believe that the early hedging position of 15,300 yuan/ton has become an almost impossible peak to climb.
In addition, the registration of warehouse receipts has just begun this year. Although the quality of lint has declined this year and the enthusiasm of enterprises to register warehouse receipts has decreased, in the face of market risks, it can be expected that there will still be a large amount of cotton resources in the market that require hedging operations. , so the pressure in the upper space is not small. Of course, with the expected benefits of vaccines and the gradual recovery of the global economy, the possibility of continuous sharp declines in cotton prices is also low. First, the healthy operation of the cotton spinning industry requires a large amount of cotton raw materials, and corporate procurement at low prices itself plays a supporting role in the market.
Currently, we are in a situation of increasing supply and decreasing demand. In the absence of favorable fundamentals, it is difficult for the cotton market to make significant achievements. Breaking through the previous high requires time to trade space. </p
