PTA is still very popular recently, and the price has changed several times, all driven by the cost side. There is endless news on the demand side, and there are constant speculations about whether PTA will rise or fall. Most believe that the rise of PTA lacks long-term support and the price will have moderate adjustments. However, the price of PTA has struggled to move upward recently due to the boost of costs. If it continues to rise, It doesn’t seem to be going up well either.
Impact. Although the overseas epidemic is still serious, recent positive news about vaccine research and development in Europe and the United States has boosted demand prospects and industry confidence. In addition, the PX-N price difference is expected to be restored, and with the support of crude oil, the price has been adjusted to a high level recently. As of November 26, the PX-N price difference was 163 US dollars/ton.
Secondly, supply and demand continue to be loose. Judging from the equipment maintenance situation, PTA supply is still at a certain high level in November. Only Yisheng Chemical, Sichuan Energy Investment, Yadong Petrochemical and other equipment have undergone maintenance. The rest There has been no significant fluctuation in the device, and there has been no significant reduction in the supply of TA. Although the polyester end has equipment maintenance, new equipment at Hengyi and Xinfengming have been put into production one after another, and there is still high demand for TA; due to the weakening of terminal weaving orders, the industry’s mentality is cautious. Although the polyester end has high support, the supply of TA is at a high level and the supply and demand are loose. In addition, the open interest of the 2001 contract is relatively high. These two factors inhibit the rebound of PTA prices.
Looking at December, currently only PTA’s Fuhai Chuang 4.5 million tons is expected to be overhauled for about 25 days on December 25, and Zhuhai BP’s 1.1 million tons are expected to be overhauled for two weeks, while Hainan Yisheng, The maintenance of Hengli Petrochemical Line 1 is not yet clear, and the possibility of another postponement of the maintenance cannot be ruled out. From this, it can be inferred that PTA supply will continue to be high in December. Although some individual devices at the polyester end are expected to have technical renovation and maintenance plans in late December, it can be seen that the polyester end will gradually show signs of weakening in late December. At present, there are no large-scale The device has announced a maintenance plan, but the oversupply situation is difficult to effectively improve.
Taken together, the PTA market changes rapidly, but it will eventually return to fundamentals. However, the benefits brought by costs in the short term still exist, and prices may fluctuate or partially rise slightly. , but it is still treading on thin ice and is expected to fall back in the long run. We still need to pay close attention to the situation of crude oil and terminal orders in the future.
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