During the period from November 23 to 26, the international oil market continued to be supported by positive vaccine research and development, and the smooth launch of the transition of power in the United States eliminated many market uncertainties. Certainty, unexpected declines in U.S. crude oil and refined oil inventories also provided support to oil prices, and crude oil futures prices rose sharply again during this cycle. However, at the end of this cycle, on the eve of the OPEC+ production meeting, there were disagreements within the oil-producing alliance about extending the scale of production cuts. The epidemic prevention situation in Europe and the United States became increasingly severe, and the market doubted the effectiveness of the vaccine, which prompted bulls to profit on the occasion of Thanksgiving. After settling its stance, oil prices showed signs of a correction.
In terms of price, Zhongyu Information monitoring data shows that the external market time is November 2020 On the 25th, the closing price of WTI crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange was US$45.71/barrel, an increase of US$3.56/barrel, or 8.45%, compared with last Friday; on November 26, the closing price of Brent crude oil futures on the Intercontinental Exchange was US$47.8/barrel, Compared with last Friday, it increased by US$2.84/barrel, an increase of 6.32%. In the four trading days from November 23 to November 26, the average closing price of WTI was US$44.56/barrel, an increase of US$2.86/barrel, or 6.87%, from last week, and the average closing price of Brent was US$47.58/barrel, an increase of US$2.86/barrel from last week. It rose by US$3.37/barrel, or 7.62%. The four-day average price difference between Brent and WTI is US$3.02/barrel, which is US$0.50/barrel wider than last week.
The core logic of the rise in crude oil futures prices this cycle is still the return of risk appetite, financial The injection of premiums and the formal start of the transfer of power to the US President have calmed many uncertainties caused by the election. Frequent reports of good progress in vaccine research and development have provided continued support to risk assets. In addition, market traders are betting that OPEC+ will be launched in November. The action to postpone the production increase plan was made at the production meeting from the 30th to the 1st. Oil prices have actually digested the benefits of the three-month extension of the production reduction agreement in advance. This is what is worrying. If OPEC+ takes action at the production meeting If there is hesitation or failure to meet expectations, then there is a possibility of a sharp drop in oil prices, because the oversupply situation in the international oil market has not improved, and with the gradual increase in Libyan production, the oversupply situation is actually still aggravating, and European and American epidemic prevention The situation is becoming increasingly severe. The positive progress in vaccine research and development can only affect the short-term market mentality. Before entering the substantial vaccine distribution stage, the support for oil prices can only be temporary, and the market is beginning to have doubts about the effectiveness of the vaccine. , which will weaken its support for oil prices. While oil prices climbed to August highs, U.S. gasoline demand hit a six-month low, which itself proves that the current increase in oil prices is hype, although we judge that OPEC+ will pass an extension of the current oil price at the upcoming production meeting. However, it is not optimistic about the continued upward trend of the crude oil price center. It is judged that U.S. crude oil may fall to the US$43/barrel level in the short term, and Brent oil prices may fall back to the US$46/barrel position.
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