Introduction: In November, international crude oil continued to rise, and bulk chemical products actively followed suit. Naphtha and ethylene, the upstream raw materials for ethylene glycol, also followed up and rose to varying degrees. Driven by costs, ethylene glycol fluctuated at a low level and strengthened; in addition to In addition to the driving force of raw material costs, the port’s continued destocking has also provided effective support to market prices.
Table 1 Domestic ethylene glycol and raw material market price increase and decrease table
Source: Longzhong Information
As shown in the above table, 12 Monthly crude oil (Brent) rose by US$6.98/ton, or 16.94%, from November; cf Japanese naphtha rose by US$24.5/ton, or 6.5% from last month; Northeast Asia ethylene rose by US$180/ton from last month, or 22.78%; cfr Chinese ethylene glycol increased by 13 US dollars/ton, or 2.73%, compared with last month; domestic ethylene glycol spot increased by 45 yuan/ton, or 1.19%, compared with last month.
The prices of raw materials have increased significantly, and ethylene glycol has been affected by its own fundamentals (the release of new production capacity on the ethylene glycol supply side, the contradiction between supply and demand has intensified, and domestic ethylene glycol has maintained low operation; and then the weather and other factors cannot Affected by control factors, the arrival of goods at the terminal was less than expected, and inventory continued to be destocked. Coupled with the backward shift of mass production of new devices on the domestic supply side, and supported by the logic of destocking, market prices rebounded upward.) There are mixed blessings and insufficient marginal momentum. Limit the price rebound height.
Figure 1 Comparison of inventory changes in domestic ethylene glycol main ports
Source: Longzhong Information
Table 2 Domestic ethylene glycol main port inventory increase and decrease table
Source: Longzhong Information
As of November 30, the inventory at the main port in East China was 1.009 million tons, a decrease of 130,800 tons, or 11.48%, from the end of October. The supply of imported goods in December is expected to be small, and the supply in the Middle East will still remain low. The increase in the United States may start to increase in late December, etc. The import volume in December is expected to be 800,000 tons, and the domestic inventory at the main port in East China will remain low. The scope is expected to narrow due to the inventoryization.
Taking a comprehensive view: Judging from the trend of the ethylene glycol market in December, it may first rise and then fall. Driven by costs, new production capacity is released but the increase in output is limited. The continued destocking of terminal inventories will still maintain support. Prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the first half of the month. In the second half of the month, with the concentration of arrivals at terminals, the continued destocking of terminals will be difficult to maintain. The demand side is affected by the terminal downturn, and the load is at risk of shifting downwards. The contradiction between supply and demand may appear in the second half of the month, suppressing prices downward. </p
