A brief introduction to the first part
According to Jin Lianchuang monitoring, PX upstream and downstream in November The overall performance of the product is a mild recovery. With Biden’s victory and major breakthroughs in vaccine research and development, macro market sentiment has rebounded. International crude oil has continued to rebound. Both the PX and PTA markets have rebounded. The confidence of holders has increased. However, under the pressure of high inventory, The rebound is limited, but the terminal textile market has cooled down, the weaving operation rate has gradually declined, and the downstream purchasing mentality is average.
Table PX and related products rose and fell ranking list in November
Data source: Jin Lianchuang
The average monthly price of PX upstream and downstream products in November The overall month-on-month price trend was lower. Only the monthly average price of the isomeric xylene market showed a significant month-on-month increase, with the monthly average price rising 4.47% month-on-month. In addition, the monthly average price of the polyester bottle flake market showed a slight month-on-month increase, with a month-on-month increase of only 0.56%. The PX market The monthly average price did not change much month-on-month, falling 0.72%, while the monthly average prices of polyester chips and East China PTA markets fell significantly month-on-month, falling 3.05% and 4.37% respectively
Part 2: Market analysis of main products in the PX industry chain
Data source: Jin Lianchuang
Domestic xylene in November The market fluctuated and strengthened, mainly boosted by the rise in the crude oil and chemical markets. Stimulated by news such as the change of the US president and the progress in the development of a new coronavirus vaccine, crude oil futures prices rebounded strongly, and the market was optimistic about the recovery of long-term demand, prompting a surge in energy and chemical products. The area has increased, and xylene has also been driven by it. The wholesale price of gasoline rose during the month, and the prices of related component products all rose. Xylene prices were slightly stagnant due to factors such as port inventories at historically high levels and pressure on supply and demand fundamentals. However, driven by the rise in various chemical products Under this situation, the price support atmosphere in the xylene market has gradually thickened, the propensity for xylene purchases in oil mixers has increased, the inventory pressure of enterprises in various places has eased, and sales offers have quickly strengthened. At the same time, with the increase in consumption, port inventory levels have also declined.
The Asian PX market fluctuated and rose in November. As of the end of the month, the Asian PX was estimated at 547 US$/ton FOB South Korea and US$565/ton CFR Taiwan/China were only US$36/ton higher than the end of last month. At the beginning of the month, due to the rising market panic in the face of the U.S. election, the enthusiasm for buying PX decreased. In addition, the supply of PX was still sufficient, social inventories remained high, and the market was under pressure. However, as the dust of the U.S. election settled, international crude oil continued to rebound, and chemical products The overall situation has picked up. Although the supply of PX is still large, due to the expected increase in the prices of major raw materials such as PX and PTA, the downstream demand for replenishment of yarn and fiber-grade PET is strong. The buying sentiment for PX is good, and merchants are sticking to their offers. In the middle of the month, the PX market sentiment was general, the cost performance was weak, and the PX supply remained at a high level. The enthusiasm for downstream purchasing was average, and the market fell in a narrow range. At the end of the month, due to the breakthrough in the progress of the new crown vaccine, international crude oil continued to rise, and PX merchants pushed up prices. The rising intention is high, and the downstream PTA factories are worried about the continued rise of raw materials, so the buying enthusiasm is good, and PX rises steadily. At the end of the month, Sinopec announced that the settlement price of PX in November was 4,130 yuan/ton, which was 150 yuan/ton lower than the settlement price last month. The average CFR Taiwan/China price in November was 536.85 US dollars/ton, down 0.72% month-on-month and 31.90% year-on-year. The lowest price was US$509/ton on November 3, and the highest price was US$571/ton on November 26. Ton.
The PTA spot market fell first and then rose in November, and the overall transaction situation was acceptable . At the beginning of the month, the international crude oil market fluctuated, and the cost side provided moderate support to the PTA market. The other half of Dushan Energy’s second phase of 1.1 million tons of production capacity has been put into operation, increasing pressure on the supply side and suppressing market sentiment. There is a continuing shortage of orders in the terminal textile market, and the PTA supply and demand structure is expected to weaken. The macro market atmosphere was not good, and the PTA market fell following the chemical sector. On the 6th, the spot offer at the main port in East China was reduced by 215 yuan/ton for the 2101 contract, and the offer was reduced by 220 yuan/ton. The negotiation centered on 3010-3040 yuan/ton. In the middle of the year, the international crude oil market rose sharply, and the cost side boosted the PTA market. The downstream market actively covered positions under the rising buying mentality, and polyester production and sales were smooth. In addition, the RCEP agreement was officially signed, the macro market atmosphere was warmer, and the overall strength of the chemical sector drove the PTA market upward. On the 19th, the spot offer at the main port in East China was reduced by 180 yuan/ton for the 2101 contract, and the offer was reduced by 185 yuan/ton. The negotiation centered on 3210-3230 yuan/ton. In the second half of the week, international crude oil prices continued to rise during the week, and the macro market atmosphere continued to be warm, which boosted PTA market sentiment and the PTA market continued to strengthen. Downstream polyester production starts remain at a high level, but substantive demand is average and purchasing enthusiasm is not high. Some devices are heating up and restarting, PTA supply pressure is obvious, and the market upside space is limited. On the 27th, the spot offer at the main port in East China was reduced by 130-135 yuan/ton for the 2101 contract, and the offer was reduced by 140 yuan/ton. The negotiation centered on 3340-3360 yuan/ton. The average PTA market price in East China in November was 3,191 yuan/ton, down 4.49% month-on-month and 33.21% year-on-year. The highest price was 3,360 yuan/ton on the 27th, and the lowest price was 3,010 yuan/ton on the 6th.
November polyesterThe entire market is operating in a volatile manner, and the overall trading atmosphere on the market is acceptable. In early November, the raw material PTA was weak and fluctuated, and the cost-promoting effect was weakened. Affected by this, the quotations of polyester chip factories were slightly lowered by 50 yuan/ton. The fundamentals of supply and demand weakened, and there was no substantial improvement in downstream demand. Factories mostly maintained rigid demand. Buying orders, market production and sales were average, factory inventories increased, and the focus of transactions in the polyester chips market fell slightly. In the middle of the middle, the raw material PTA fluctuated and the cost support was acceptable. However, due to the weakening demand from downstream, polyester chip companies were reluctant to sell at low prices. Downstream factories purchased raw materials in appropriate quantities at low prices. The market production and sales were acceptable, but the focus of market transactions fell to this month. At the lowest point, the slicing market as a whole was weak and fluctuating. In the second half of the year, international crude oil prices rose, PTA operated on the strong side, polyester cost support increased, and quotations from slicing companies rose slightly. Near the end of the month, many downstream factories stocked up appropriately, the trading atmosphere on the market increased, and the inventory of polyester companies decreased accordingly. In addition, the main downstream polyester filament market is steadily rising, which jointly promotes the transaction focus of the polyester chip market to fluctuate upward. As of November 30, the average chip market price was 4,419 yuan/ton, down 3.05% month-on-month and 26.19% year-on-year. The highest price was 4,500 yuan/ton on November 2, and the lowest price was 4,350 yuan/ton on November 6. Yuan / ton.
Polyester bottle flakes
The overall domestic bottle-grade PET market showed strong fluctuations in November trend. In the first half of the month, the bottle-grade PET market remained range-bound. At the beginning of the month, under the pressure of the sharp drop in international crude oil, the polyester raw material PTA market continued to weaken, and the support for the market weakened, and the market price fluctuated slightly. Starting from the 9th, with the rebound of international crude oil, the polyester raw material PTA and ethylene glycol markets have risen one after another. Driven by costs, bottle tablet manufacturers have gradually raised their offers, and the focus of market negotiations has risen within a narrow range. In the first half of the month, the focus of the bottle-grade PET market fluctuated around the range of 4650-4850 yuan/ton. Starting from the second half of the month, the bottle-grade PET market continued to fluctuate and rise. International crude oil prices continue to rise. Boosted by this, the market trend of polyester raw material PTA is relatively strong. Driven by favorable costs, bottle flake manufacturers have steadily raised their offers. By the end of the month, the focus of market negotiations will gradually rise to 5100-5250 yuan/ton. Dealers are actively replenishing goods at low prices, market transactions are booming, and individual manufacturers have completed large orders of tens of thousands of tons in futures. Downstream demand is mainly for replenishment, and market trading is relatively active. During this month, major downstream manufacturers will mainly be bidding for large orders in the first and second quarters of next year. As of November 30, the average bottle-grade PET market price in East China in November was 4,892 yuan/ton, up 0.56% month-on-month and down 23.59% year-on-year. The highest price appeared at 5,250 yuan/ton on November 26, and the lowest price appeared at 4,650 yuan/ton on November 9.
Part Three Forecast and Outlook
It is predicted that the PX industry chain may remain at a low level and fluctuate in December , the upstream market is strong, but the downstream market is weak. Driven by the strength of international crude oil, the polyester raw material market is expected to continue to be strong in the short term, and costs will provide a certain boost to the polyester market. However, the fundamentals of the polyester raw material market are weak. Subject to high inventory resistance, the market is still under pressure to correct. Moreover, terminal textiles have entered the off-season, and the market supply and demand side has weakened. In the medium and long term, the polyester industry chain market will be difficult to escape. Weak situation. The following is the market outlook for each product:
It is expected that the domestic second The toluene market is strong and fluctuating, mainly due to the strong judgment on crude oil futures prices and the optimistic market mentality. However, the domestic supply of xylene has slightly reduced, and the pressure on supply and demand fundamentals will gradually ease in the later period. Supported by the cost of import positions and the production costs of petrochemical companies, In the future, the xylene market will still have a strong price support atmosphere. However, there is insufficient room for improvement in domestic demand in the near future. The overall operating rate of domestic PX is already high, and there is no new demand growth point in the short term. Although the demand for oil mixing is expected to increase, under the global epidemic situation, there is room for growth in domestic consumption and export of gasoline. Very limited, so the contradiction between supply and demand still needs time to be completely resolved. Although port inventories are expected to decline in December, the process is still slow. The motivation for xylene speculation is slightly insufficient. Prices in December mainly fluctuated at a small pace and firmed up.
It is expected that the PX market will consolidate strongly in December. It is easy to rise but difficult to fall. The current market The panic about the epidemic has weakened, and businesses are not willing to make profits. Ningbo Zhongjin Petrochemical PX equipment has begun maintenance. Since the maintenance time is two months, domestic supply has tightened significantly, boosting the mentality of the industry. The downstream PTA factory suffered a small loss, and the PX Rigid purchases are still maintained. On the whole, the PX market is mainly firm and consolidated in December.
It is expected that the PTA market will adjust after being strong in December. Driven by crude oil, the cost side drove the price of PTA to rebound. As the new equipment is operating normally after being put into production, and new equipment is relatively concentrated in the future, PTA will still be subject to the continued increase in supply for a long time in the future, and it will be difficult for profits to rise. While crude oil is still strong, PTA does not have the basis for a sharp decline for the time being. However, PTA faces heavy technical resistance. At the same time, it is subject to high spot inventory and futures hedging pressure, and its fundamentals are relatively weak. Therefore, the PTA trend may remain strong, with insufficient upward momentum, and a shock correction trend is not ruled out.
The polyester PET market is expected to be weak in December. The raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol may run in shock next month, and the cost push effect is limited. From the supply side, some of the polyester PET factories will undergo maintenance in December, and the operating rate may drop slightly. It is expected that the supply will be sufficient in the future. From the demand side, terminal demand continues to be sluggish in December, and there is insufficient follow-up growth in orders. It is expected that fiber-grade PET downstream factories will spend more time preparing raw materials for stocking, and market demand is weak. Bottle-grade PET downstream is in the traditional consumption off-season, and downstream market demand continues Shrinking, buying is more cautious, and the overall demand for polyester PET market is average. Taken together, the polyester PET market may be weak in December, and we should pay close attention to the trend of international crude oil and the trend of the upstream raw material market in the future.
From a demand perspective, terminal demand continues to be sluggish in December, and there is insufficient follow-up growth in orders. It is expected that fiber-grade PET downstream factories will spend more time preparing raw materials for stocking, and market demand is weak. Bottle-grade PET downstream is in the traditional consumption off-season, and downstream market demand The market continues to shrink, buying is more cautious, and the overall demand for the polyester PET market is average. Taken together, the polyester PET market may be weak in December, and we should pay close attention to the trend of international crude oil and the trend of the upstream raw material market in the future.