Three major economic cycles since the 21st century
Since this century, with the development of industry Due to changes in the fundamental and external situations, the economic growth rate of my country’s textile industry has experienced many switches. To sum up, so far, there are mainly three development cycles with clear stage characteristics.
Figure 1: Year-on-year growth of major economic indicators in the textile industry from 2001 to 2019
Data source : National Bureau of Statistics, China Customs
The first stage
Before the outbreak of the international financial crisis from 2002 to 2008, the new century In the golden development cycle since then
At this stage, the world economy has safely survived the impact of the US Internet bubble and the Asian financial crisis, and has entered a period of peak development since the new century. The average annual GDP growth rate is close to 5%. It is the fastest economic growth stage in this century so far. In 2001, my country successfully joined the World Trade Organization, which provided domestic industries with an important opportunity to share the dividends of rapid growth of the world economy. my country’s domestic demand market also achieved a jump in growth relying on the development of the national economy. my country’s market economic system is increasingly improving, and investment access in the industrial field has been continuously relaxed, which has played an important role in promoting industrial technological progress and scale development.
With the accession to the WTO and the cancellation of global textile and apparel quotas, the export competitiveness of my country’s textile industry has been released. The vast international market has provided a strong impetus for the development of the industrial chain. The industry has grown rapidly since the mid-to-late 1990s. The major technological breakthroughs in chemical fiber accumulated over the past years and the potential for innovation in cotton spinning production capacity have been fully utilized. During this period, the main economic indicators of my country’s textile industry have achieved double-digit growth, and some indicators have achieved major leaps in magnitude. The output of chemical fiber has increased from less than 7 million tons at the beginning of this century to tens of millions of tons, reaching 24.15 million tons in 2008; the total export volume of textiles and clothing has increased from more than 50 billion US dollars to 189.6 billion US dollars; the main business income of enterprises above designated size has increased from 10,000 US dollars to 10 million tons. billion yuan increased to one trillion yuan, reaching 3.4 trillion yuan in 2008. From 2002 to 2008, my country’s total fiber processing volume and total textile and apparel exports increased by an average annual rate of 12.9% and 19.6% respectively. The main business income and total profits of textile enterprises above designated size in the country increased by an average annual rate of 21.7% and 28.9% respectively. Investment in fixed assets The average annual growth rate of completed sales reached 30.6%; the national retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, needles and textiles above designated size have always maintained double-digit growth, and have continued to accelerate.
The second stage
2009~2011, the adjustment and revitalization cycle after the impact of the financial crisis
The third quarter of 2008 The outbreak of the international financial crisis has had a major impact on the world economy. my country’s textile industry has also experienced shrinking exports, economic decline, and reduced employment. In response to the impact of the international financial crisis, the country quickly introduced ten measures to further expand domestic demand and promote stable and rapid economic growth, and released ten major industrial adjustment and revitalization plans, among which the textile industry was among them.
With the support of policy guidance and good industrial foundation, the textile industry economy quickly bottomed out and rebounded. In 2009, the main business income of enterprises above designated size returned to double-digit growth. In 2010 and 2011, Main business income, total profits, total exports, and investment completions all achieved year-on-year growth of 20% or more. During this period, under the guidance and support of national policies, the textile industry made new breakthroughs in key technical fields such as fiber materials, localized equipment, clean dyeing and finishing, and the progress of industrial transfer in the central and western regions accelerated significantly. From 2009 to 2011, the central and western regions The average annual growth rate of new fixed asset investment in the region is as high as 37.3%, playing a positive role in driving the growth of industry investment. Domestic consumption of textiles and clothing is active, with retail sales growing faster than exports. This development trend has been maintained since then, and domestic sales have become the absolute driving force for the development of the textile industry.
Figure 2: Year-on-year growth in export and domestic sales indicators of textile and apparel products from 2001 to 2019
Data source: National Bureau of Statistics , China Customs
The third stage
2012~2018, the deep adjustment and transformation cycle under the new economic normal
This The emergence of a development cycle is based on the large industrial scale of our country on the one hand and the complex changes in the external environment on the other. In 2012, my country’s total fiber processing volume exceeded 45 million tons, and reached 50 million tons in 2014, accounting for more than 50% of the world’s total, occupying a core position in the manufacturing supply side of the international textile supply chain. As the scale of the industry expands significantly, it is inevitable that the growth rate will slow down. At the same time, major changes have taken place in the macroeconomic situation at home and abroad. Internationally, the world economy has been suffering from the aftermath of the international financial crisis for a long time. The recovery has been slow and tortuous, and uncertain and unstable factors have emerged one after another. Domestically, the turning point of my country’s working population appeared in 2012. The constraints of natural resources and ecological environment became more prominent with economic development. In 2011, GDP completely ended the era of double-digit growth. In 2015, it began to enter a period of growth below 8%. The development of the national economy has entered a new normal of deceleration, structural optimization, and innovation-driven development. my country’s comprehensive deepening of reform began in 2013.Enterprises and production capacity with reasonable division of labor will gradually withdraw, while those enterprises that have survived the market baptism will inevitably take leaps towards the high end of the textile supply chain.
It can be seen from the above analysis that during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period, my country’s textile industry should continue the high-quality development cycle that has emerged in 2019, and the growth rate of the economic aggregate will no longer be used to judge the industry development cycle. Important reference indicators. The textile industry has the ability to seize the opportunities of modern scientific and technological innovation and innovate the industry development path in an all-round way. It has the ability to effectively supply the domestic demand market under the conditions of building a moderately prosperous society in an all-round way and greatly improving cultural confidence. It independently establishes and effectively controls an efficient, green, and international supply chain. The capabilities of the system and industrial layout system will become a new indicator for judging the development cycle of the textile industry during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period, and will also be a new direction for the textile industry.
Proceed step by step, make progress every day, work tirelessly, and make steady progress! </p
