Brazil’s cotton planting area is expected to shrink by 15% in 2020/21

According to foreign news on December 8, the Brazilian Cotton Growers Association (Abrapa) said on Tuesday that Brazil’s cotton planting area in 2020/21 is expected to shrink by 15% compared with the previous year, due to weather factors that have delayed soybean planting.
Mato Grosso is Brazil’s top cotton-producing state. Abrapa data shows Mato Grosso’s cotton planting rate through September is just over 10%, slightly below the same period in 2019/20.
Milton Garbugio, chairman of the association, said that there are still farmers hesitant to plant cotton because of bad weather. The association will have a clearer understanding of the planting area in January next year.
Due to the delay in soybean planting, some farmers have simply given up on the 2020/21 crop because the second round of crops has lost its ideal development period.
On the other hand, Garbugio pointed out that some growers in Mato Grosso decided to plant the first round of cotton on soybean fields that had previously experienced drought, which may limit the extent of the reduction in planting area.
Garbugio said, “This is the reality we consider, which is why we will not get more precise figures until mid-January. Growers’ planting intentions can change at any time, thus affecting the planting area.”
Matto Grosso’s cotton planting area accounts for nearly 75% of Brazil’s total planting area, followed by Bahia, which accounts for more than 15%.
Regarding the impact of unfavorable weather on crop yields, Garbugio said that it is too early to draw conclusions and sowing has just begun.
Brazil’s cotton production in 2019/20 is approximately 3 million tons. Abrapa had previously expected production in the 2020/21 season to be about 2.5 million tons. If the forecast of reduced planting area is confirmed, the production estimate will be further reduced.
Pre-sales situation
Abrapa estimates that about 50% of the 2020/21 cotton crop has been pre-sold, compared with the average of 40% in previous years.
Even if weather factors are not taken into account, Brazil’s cotton planting area in 2020/21 will shrink as the industry is affected by the COVID-19 epidemic.
Júlio Busato, the new chairman of Abrapa, who will take office in January next year, said at a press conference that cotton prices have indeed rebounded strongly, but US dollar revenue has declined compared with 2018.
It added that most cost inputs, including fertilizers and pesticides, are in U.S. dollars, adding an atmosphere of caution to the industry. “If the costs are calculated, growers may reduce the larger planting area,” but Brazil is a leader in the international market and cannot afford to lose customers. </p