The National Coal Exchange Association’s long-term agreement orders are expected to exceed 1 billion tons. Reporters learned at the 2021 National Coal Trade Fair and China Taiyuan Coal Trade Conference that the newly formed Jinneng Holding Group signed a five-year long-term contract with eight major customers including China Resources, Datang, and Conch. The coal supply volume Reaching 520 million tons. After that, many large enterprises signed medium and long-term contracts respectively. According to relevant experts in the industry, more than 1 billion tons of coal contracts will be signed during this meeting, which is the largest long-term contract order in recent years.
Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange issued a risk warning letter on the evening of December 9, saying that the price of thermal coal futures has fluctuated recently. The market is relatively large and there are many uncertain factors in the market. All member units are requested to effectively strengthen investor education and risk prevention, and remind investors to operate prudently and invest rationally.
During the night trading hours of the domestic market last night, the main contract of thermal coal futures continued its rise, rising by more than 5% during the session and continuing to hit a record high. As of the closing price on the evening of December 9, the black series has risen sharply, with Zhengzhou coal rising by more than 4%, PVC and iron ore rising by more than 3%, Zhengzhou alcohol, palm, etc. rising by more than 2%, coke, plastics, etc. rising by more than 1%, soybean meal, Rapeseed meal and other prices rose slightly; soda ash fell by more than 3%, and soybean and starch prices fell slightly.
The RMB exchange rate rose above the 6.50 mark! Exchange $100,000 to “save” $70,000. The RMB exchange rate keeps rising. On December 9, the offshore RMB rose above the 6.50 mark against the U.S. dollar, continuing to hit a new high since June 2018.
It is worth noting that the EIA inventory data released last night showed that U.S. EIA crude oil inventories surged by 15.189 million barrels last week to 503.2 million barrels, an increase of 3.1%, breaking the After falling for two consecutive weeks, the increase was the largest in a single week since April this year. Crude oil production was flat at 11.1 million barrels per day. After the data was released, oil prices fell back from their highs. As of the close early this morning, international oil prices were mixed, with January crude oil futures in New York closing down $0.08, or 0.18%, at $45.52/barrel. Brent crude oil futures for February closed up $0.02, or 0.04%, at $48.86 per barrel.
Two bombs attacked Iraqi oil fields, and EIA crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased by 15.189 million barrels
According to a report from Iraq’s Shafaqi News Agency on December 9, quoted by China News Service, local Iraqi police sources said that two oil wells in Kirkuk Province in northern Iraq were hit by bombs and caused fires. This incident was committed by the extremist organization “Islamic State”. According to reports, the attack occurred at dawn on December 9, local time. The extremists detonated two explosive devices and attacked two oil wells. These two oil wells are located in the Habbaz oil field in Kirkuk Province. After the explosion, a fire broke out in the area, and firefighters rushed to the scene to put out the fire.
It is reported that the daily output of the oil field is approximately 25,000 barrels of crude oil. Affected by the news, Brent oil’s intraday increase once expanded to 1.3% to US$49.48; WTI rose 1.3% to US$46.20, but fell back soon after.
It is worth noting that the EIA inventory data released last night showed that U.S. EIA crude oil inventories surged by 15.189 million barrels last week. , to 503.2 million barrels, an increase of 3.1%, breaking the previous two consecutive weeks of decline, and the largest increase in a single week since April this year. Crude oil production was flat at 11.1 million barrels per day. After the data was released, oil prices fell back from their highs. Analysts pointed out that the main indicator affecting oil market sentiment is still demand, and excess inventory will continue to put pressure on oil prices. As of the close early this morning, international oil prices were mixed, with January crude oil futures in New York closing down $0.08, or 0.18%, at $45.52/barrel. Brent crude oil futures for February closed up $0.02, or 0.04%, at $48.86 per barrel.
Yang An, head of energy and chemical R&D at Haitong Futures, told reporters that the bombing of an oil well in Iraq had a limited impact on oil prices. He believes that the market was quite nervous as soon as the news broke, because there were early signs of escalation of conflict between Iran and Israel, and the market was worried about the escalation of the geopolitical crisis in the Middle East. However, the Iraqi government later stated that the oil production of the attacked oil well was approximately 25,000 barrels per day, which has a very limited impact on the supply side.
“However, judging from the reaction of oil prices in this incident, the market has become highly sensitive to geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East. Once there is a more serious attack on oil facilities, oil prices will not rule out the possibility of There has been a sharp rise in the market.” Yang An said that the cumulative increase in oil prices during this round of rebound is about 35%, and there is a certain degree of adjustment pressure. It is difficult for Brent crude oil to easily break through the 50 US dollars/barrel mark, and it is not appropriate to blindly pursue higher prices for the time being. .
In fact, tensions in the Middle East have escalated recently. On November 23, the Houthi armed forces in Yemen successfully attacked the Saudi Aramco distribution station in Jeddah with a “Quds 2” cruise missile. The raging fire caused by the attack quickly destroyed part of the oil storage facilities in the station.
“There was another piece of news yesterday that deserves the market’s vigilance.” Yang An said. It is reported that Iranian President Rouhani stated on December 9 that Tehran plans to sell well over 2.3 million barrels of oil per day in 2021 and requires Iran to�. The demand for hot coils lacks obvious seasonal characteristics and is still at a high level. Therefore, the trend of hot coils has been significantly stronger than that of rebar in recent weeks, and the price difference between rebars continues to expand. “Xia Xuezhao, an analyst at Southwest Futures, said.
It is worth mentioning that while output remains generally stable and transaction volume slows down seasonally, rebar inventories have been reduced to some extent. Slowing down. The total inventory of rebar last week was 6.76 million tons, a decrease of 79,000 tons from the previous month. Among them, the social inventory was 4.265 million tons, a decrease of 239,000 tons from the previous month; the steel mill inventory was 2.495 million tons, an increase of 161,000 tons from the previous month. Xia Xuezhao believes that thread The speed of total steel inventory depletion is roughly the same as in previous years, and an inventory inflection point is expected to occur this week or next week, slightly ahead of market expectations of inventory accumulation in mid-December. However, the high inventory problem has been alleviated to a certain extent, and inventory accumulation If the rhythm is consistent with previous years, it will not exert great pressure on rebar prices.
“In addition, the strength of steel futures reflects the market’s optimistic expectations for next year’s macroeconomics. Since the domestic epidemic has been brought under control, the domestic macro-economy has continued to improve, and important downstream industries of steel have continued to expand, resulting in continued improvement in demand for black varieties in the medium term. However, it is worth noting that steel futures are currently showing a pattern of near weakness and far strength. “Xia Xuezhao said that this pattern of near weakness and far strength is evidence that macro expectations are at work. The logic of near weakness and far strength is that because the front-month contract is close to delivery, it will be more affected by the industrial reality, and futures prices will not It may be separated from the spot price fluctuations. The far-month contract is still far away from delivery, and there is no stable price to anchor it. The strengthening of expectations can cause the price to rise significantly. Therefore, although they are also rising, the increase in the far-month contract Even bigger.
Shuangjiao fell more than 4%, and Apple’s weakness did not change and fell below the 6,500 yuan mark
Compared to The coal sector’s “strong ones are always strong”, while rubber, styrene and apples are “the weak ones are always weak” recently. Affected by factors such as the weather in southern Thailand getting better and the start-up of domestic tire factories falling slightly from the previous month, the main players of Hujiao and No. 20 rubber On December 9, they both jumped short and opened lower, with closing declines of more than 4%. Huatai Futures analysis believes that the performance of No. 20 rubber is weaker than that of Hujiao, or the market is reflecting the logic of weaker demand month-on-month. In the short term, raw material output will increase, The fall in prices, combined with the month-on-month decline in demand, has caused the rubber market to oscillate mainly weakly in the short term. However, in the mid-term, the insufficient supply of raw materials will still be difficult to solve before a new round of cutting. As long as there is no obvious weakness on the demand side, prices in the later period will It will remain strong.
In terms of agricultural products, the continuous decline of apple futures has brought the market atmosphere to freezing point. In less than a month since mid-November, the price of apples has continued to decline. fell, with the cumulative decline exceeding 13%. Yesterday, the main Apple futures contract fell 3.03% intraday, closing at 6,443 yuan/ton, setting a new low for the contract since early April 2018. Analysts believe that high inventory is weak Demand, the impact of alternative fruits and the weakness of spot trading indicate that Apple’s weakness is difficult to change for the time being.
“The continued decline of Apple futures is ultimately caused by the pattern of oversupply. , Apple storage volume this year hit a record high, downstream market demand is weak, and the futures market reflects pessimistic expectations for the future. “Zhongyuan Futures analyst Liu Sikui said.
Wang Bo, an analyst at Yide Futures Fresh Products Division, told reporters that first, from the spot market, inventory is high and demand is weak. , cheap substitutes have impacted Apple sales, and it is only a matter of time before spot prices fall. If spot prices fall on a large scale, it will help futures prices fall. Second, from the futures market, the final price of the 2012 contract basically remained at 6,300 yuan. / ton, and after two benchmarkings, a consensus has been reached on the delivery standards for the new season. There is a high probability that the hyped delivery will not happen, and the futures return logic has begun. This reflects that the buyer’s willingness to receive goods at the current price is not very strong. On the contrary, the seller’s willingness to deliver is very strong, and the market is going downward based on the strength comparison.
It is understood that the new season apple inventory is about 11.38 million tons, compared with 10 million tons in the same period last year. , 1 million tons more than last year. “Last year, there was already pressure on apple sales. Under this year’s epidemic, with such a high inventory, the pressure on apple sales is even greater. Citrus fruits have a bumper harvest this year and are relatively cheap. However, the current overall demand is not good and the overall sales have not accelerated. The impact will squeeze out the sales share of apples. With high inventory and weak demand, it is only a matter of time before the spot price of Apple falls. As the underlying price of Apple futures is expected to fall, it is relatively normal. After breaking through the resistance point of 6500 points, in addition to following the futures return logic, we also need to look at the willingness of both long and short parties, that is, the seller’s willingness to deliver and the buyer’s willingness to receive the goods. “Wang Bo said.
However, Yide Futures also said that although weak fundamentals continue to put pressure on Apple’s trend, the approaching Double 12 e-commerce activities may provide support for the spot price , there may be a rebound process in the short term. However, based on the fundamental high inventory and weak demand, the operation may still be rebound shorting.
Liu Sikui believes that the current market downstream consumption and holiday stocking The boost is limited. The destocking of stocked apples has not been able to start on a large scale. Alternative fruits continue to impact. Future spot prices are expected to be strong through price cuts, and the weakness may continue before the Spring Festival. In the future, the market price trend needs to pay attention to changes in inventory and price declines. Factors such as the decline in the overall delivery cost of futures.
Factors such as cost reduction. </p
