Introduction: Recently, due to the intertwining of multiple favorable factors, the PTA market has ushered in a wave of rising “east wind”. The market logic has switched from being dominated by supply and demand to being dominated by costs. The market has swept away the previous weakness and bottom-out trend, and the overall trend has continued to be strong.
In the past week, the international crude oil market has continued to rise, and the cost side has strengthened support for the PTA market. The OPEC+ production reduction agreement continues, and the increase in production is smaller than market expectations, which is good for international oil prices. European and American countries are gradually launching vaccinations, and global energy demand is recovering well, boosting confidence in the crude oil market. The cost side is strongly driven, and the combination of early bull funds has pushed up PTA futures. At the same time, the expansion of the delivery warehouse has led to the tightening of spot market circulation, and the positive effects of many parties have boosted the upward trend of the PTA market.
However, from the perspective of supply and demand fundamentals, the PTA market is still shrouded in gloom, and the possibility of a shock correction cannot be ruled out. First of all, from the supply side, there has been little change in PTA units recently, with only the 1.4 million-ton unit of Reignwood Petrochemical briefly reducing its load from December 7 to 9.
Currently, PTA equipment maintenance is concentrated after mid-to-late December. Zhuhai BP’s 1.1 million ton unit plans to shut down for maintenance for 20 days starting from December 12, Fuhai Chuang’s 4.5 million ton unit plans to shut down for maintenance for 25 days starting from December 17, Ningbo Yisheng’s 2 million ton unit plans to shut down for maintenance in February next year, Yisheng Hainan 200 The 10,000-ton unit was originally scheduled for maintenance in January next year, but it has been postponed to March.
The price upside space has been suppressed to a certain extent.
On the demand side, the current start-up of polyester factories is still relatively stable, and rigid demand supports the PTA market. However, some polyester factories will continue to carry out boiler renovations in mid-to-late December, which will inevitably have a certain impact on the start-up and output of polyester in the later period. In addition, due to the sluggish new orders in the terminal market, the production profits of weaving companies are not high, and some weaving manufacturers may expect to have holidays in advance.
Taken together, PTA is still in a inventory accumulation cycle in the near future, and there is no substantial positive boost on the demand side. The fundamentals of PTA supply and demand have not changed much, and the market is dominated by the cost side. Against the background of the continued rise in the crude oil market, the PTA market will continue to be strong in the short term, but the possibility of a shock correction cannot be ruled out. It is necessary to pay close attention to the fluctuation of international oil prices. </p
