Introduction: In 2020, due to the dual impact of the cost side and the demand side, the trend of polyester filament has been ups and downs. In recent years, with the advancement of large-scale refining and chemical projects, polyester raw materials have continued to bottom out, and polyester filament polymerization costs have decreased. However, repeated epidemics at home and abroad have caused the demand for end-use clothing textiles to shrink. On the other hand, polyester filament production capacity continues to be released, resulting in a contradiction between supply and demand. It has become increasingly apparent that the “two highs and two lows” situation of high production, high inventory, low demand, and low prices for polyester filament yarns continues. However, as 2020 is coming to an end, it is difficult for the polyester filament yarn market to have a reversal momentum.
Since the launch of large-scale refining and chemical projects, the supply and demand of polyester raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol have been imbalanced, and the spot trend has shown a downward trend. Due to the decline in polymerization costs and the shrinking terminal demand, The price of polyester filament continues to decline. As shown in Figure 1, the monthly average price is far lower than the same period in previous years and has become a historical low in the past ten years.
Figure 1 Comparison of monthly average price trends of mainstream polyester filament models from 2018 to 2020
Source ：Longzhong Information
As shown in the figure, after continuing to hit the bottom in the first quarter, the market showed signs of rebounding in the middle of the second quarter. It is reported that corporate inventories reached their peak before the Qingming Festival. In order to relieve the pressure, prices have been reduced and promoted, falling to historical lows. Stimulated by low prices, users have covered their positions one after another, and attracted many off-site funds and people to stock up on goods. Therefore, the inventory pressure of polyester filament companies has been relieved, and quotations have gradually been raised. .
However, the domestic epidemic has not yet been completely controlled. Overseas epidemics have broken out, and the export of terminal textiles and clothing has been blocked. Domestic weaving companies have experienced many delays and cancellations of orders, and there are many cases of missing orders and user purchases. To be cautious, the supply pressure of polyester filament is high, and the transaction volume continues to drop.
This year’s peak season is not as good as market expectations. Although the increase in orders during the “Double Ten” period has caused the volume and price of polyester filament to rise, the company’s market outlook is still cautious. In addition, at the end of the year Multiple sets of equipment have been put into production, and the market supply pressure is relatively high. Therefore, the market is still dominated by promotional shipments in November, and the market transaction focus continues to decline. Since December, despite the support from the cost side, polyester has once again rebounded slightly, but upstream The good news is outweighed by the drag from sluggish demand, and the market will remain weak at the end of the year.
Figure 2 Comparison of average monthly operating rates of polyester filament from 2018 to 2020
Source: Longzhong Information
In recent years, new devices have been continuously put on the market. At present, the production capacity of direct spinning polyester filament has increased to more than 30 million tons, and the industry start-up has also remained at a high level. , domestic production has also achieved continuous growth since 2016. Due to the combination of the COVID-19 epidemic and the weak demand side, the start-up of direct-spun polyester filament has shown a significant downward trend compared with 2019. However, compared with previous years, it is still at a relatively high level.
According to Longzhong statistics, most enterprises in the Xiaoshao area will stop for boiler renovation at the end of the year. There is no expectation of centralized maintenance in other areas. Jiangsu Wujiang and Shengze have also recently introduced maintenance. plan, but the overall maintenance share is less than 10%, and leading companies have no maintenance expectations. Therefore, the polyester filament start-up at the end of the year will still maintain a high level. However, there is no maintenance plan for new projects put into production this year, and the actual output far exceeds the level of the same period last year. Therefore, industry supply pressure continues unabated.
Figure 3 Comparison of month-end inventory days of mainstream polyester filament models from 2018 to 2020
Source: Longzhong Information
Industry production and sales rate and inventory are the leading data that most directly reflect market demand. As shown in Figure 3, polyester filament enterprise inventory in 2020 All are at their peak, far exceeding the levels of the same period in previous years.
Especially in February, the market was priceless and most downstream textile companies were at a standstill. Although polyester filament companies reduced their burdens and avoided risks, it was difficult to change the situation of accumulated inventory. Therefore, polyester filament yarn companies The peak value of filament yarn in the first half of the year appeared in February. With the outbreak of overseas epidemics, terminal exports were blocked, and the demand for clothing and textiles fell sharply. However, the domestic supply of polyester filament yarn did not shrink significantly. By September, the inventory of polyester filament yarn was once again Reach the peak.
As mentioned above, in December, boosted by the cost side, polyester filament showed signs of rebounding slightly. However, the current situation of “two highs and two lows” for polyester filaments has not Things have changed, and the social inventory of the main raw material PTA is high, and the rebound is just a flash in the pan. After all, it will not last long. Therefore, polyester filament will still fluctuate downward at the end of the year. </p
