Introduction: A more transmissible new coronavirus variant has been discovered in the UK, and strong blockade measures have been adopted in London and surrounding areas. The demand outlook has been hit again, macro market risk aversion has increased, oil prices have fallen sharply, and the ethylene glycol market has fallen back from its highs on Monday. , but the market opened soaring 100 points on Tuesday, can this market continue?
Two ships collided in the Yangtze River Estuary. It is still closed to navigation. Only ships with a draft of less than six meters can be navigated. The port inventory is still in a continuous destocking situation. As of this week A total of 780,600 tons of ethylene glycol port inventory in East China was 106,200 tons lower than last Monday and 48,200 tons lower than last Thursday. The current port inventory is 621,400 tons lower than this year’s high of 1.402 million tons, but it is still at a high point compared with the same period last year.
Currently, ethylene glycol ships are unable to enter the port. Benefiting from the downstream demand, the port shipments are smooth. From December 18th to December 21st, ethylene glycol Zhangjiagang’s mainstream reservoir area Ethylene glycol was shipped around 45,900 tons, and over-the-counter funds believed that the overall valuation of ethylene glycol was low, and there were expectations for a later rise. Under the speculation of bullish funds, ethylene glycol soared up to 100 points in the morning. But can this market continue?
The number of arrivals at the port is expected to be high this week. As the Yangtze River Estuary gradually resumes navigation, the port inventory accumulation is expected to be strong, and some domestic maintenance devices are still restarting, and the supply has increased slightly. Volume is expected, and as overseas maintenance equipment restarts, import volume gradually recovers. The downstream polyester end is affected by the energy-saving and power-limiting policy, and the maintenance decline is expected to be brought forward. The long-term supply and demand contradiction is expected to worsen, suppressing the market’s room for growth. At present, the overall supply and demand pressure of ethylene glycol is relatively high, the futures-to-cash basis has not strengthened, spot selling pressure still exists, and funds in the industry have a bearish view on the market outlook for ethylene glycol.
To sum up, this market may just be driven up by capital speculation and cannot form a sustained rising market. You should be cautious when chasing the rise. </p
