According to the U.S. Agricultural Counselor’s report, Brazil’s cotton planting area in 2020/21 was 1.5 million hectares, a 10% decrease year-on-year, and the output was 2.63 million tons, a 13% decrease year-on-year. The Brazilian Cotton Growers Association estimates that Brazil’s cotton production in 2020/21 It was 2.4 million tons, which was significantly lower than the 2.76 million tons predicted by Brazil’s CONAB and the 2.63 million tons reported by the U.S. Agricultural Counselor. The latest monthly USDA forecast was 2.613 million tons.
It is worth noting that relevant Brazilian institutions have exaggerated and exaggerated the decline in Brazilian cotton planting area in 2020/21. Although it has been restrained recently, it is still not far from the survey results of USDA and other institutions. The discrepancy results in a difference of more than 200,000 tons in total cotton output, which is not a small amount. From a time perspective, cotton planting in Brazil usually ends before the end of December. However, this year due to La Niña climate, high corn prices and other factors, the cotton planting period will be extended to around the end of January, and the cotton planting area in Brazil will gradually become clear.
Judging from the statistics and forecasts of Brazil’s relevant agricultural departments, the decrease in cotton planting area in 2020/21 has continued to narrow from November to December, from “scarce rainfall and widespread drought, among which Matogro The drought is the most severe in central and northern São Paulo, and it is a question whether corn and cotton can be planted smoothly after soybeans.” The Brazilian Cotton Growers Association (Abrapa) said that the cotton planting area in Brazil is expected to decrease by 15% in 2020/21 compared with the previous year. , and then CONAB predicted that the cotton planting area is expected to be 1.53 million hectares, a year-on-year decrease of 8.14%. Recently, the head of the Brazilian Cotton Growers Association believes that Brazil’s cotton planting area may drop by 7% in 2020/21. The main reason is that due to drought and insufficient irrigation, about 50% of Brazil’s cotton is planted after soybeans. As for the decline in Brazilian cotton production in 2020/21, Abrapa believes that it is still early to judge the production. Although the cotton planting area has declined, Brazilian cotton yields are expected to increase significantly due to factors such as improved cotton seeds, improved technology and management levels, and experience. There may be a situation of “reducing planting but not reducing harvest”.
The decrease in cotton planting area in Brazil in 2020/21 is somewhat exaggerated. There are three reasons:
First, after exaggerating, the “high” cotton planting area in Brazil in 2019/20 and 2020/21 is exaggerated. The “basis difference” quotation has formed an effective support and launched export competition with U.S. cotton on the basis of improving quality and price; secondly, affected by the rising prices of agricultural products such as soybeans and corn in 2020, the added value of cotton planting has weakened, and the planting area has been speculated The decline is beneficial to stabilizing cotton prices and stabilizing farmers’ enthusiasm for cotton planting; third, the outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic has not only increased the physical and chemical costs, management costs, transportation and other costs of farmers’ cotton planting, but also has a sharp increase in sea freight, container shortages, and a sharp decline in cotton planting area through speculation Achieving the purpose of raising the basis difference will help relieve pressure on Brazilian ginners and traders. </p
