According to CNN, at about 6:30 a.m. on December 25, local time, an explosion occurred in the center of Nashville, Tennessee, USA, and some nearby buildings were damaged. As for the details of the incident, local police and emergency personnel are still investigating. The information currently revealed is that the explosion may be a “deliberate action” related to a suspicious vehicle. According to local media reports, witnesses reported that before the car bombing in downtown Nashville, Tennessee, the RV involved sounded a terrifying alarm, “Evacuate immediately, there is a bomb. There is a bomb in this car and it will explode.” ”, and then the alarm starts counting down for 15 seconds.
On December 25, with the approval of the State Council, the Tariff Commission of the State Council announced the second exclusion and extension list of goods subject to tariffs on the United States and Canada. For the six items in the “Announcement on the Second Exclusion List of Products Imposed by the United States and Canada” (Tax Commission Announcement [2019] No. 8), the exclusion period has been extended for one year, from December 26, 2020 to December 25, 2021. We will continue to refrain from imposing the tariffs that we have imposed to counter the US Section 301 measures.
As of the afternoon closing on December 25, most domestic futures markets closed up. Except for hot coil, the black series rose collectively in the afternoon, with coal and coke strongly leading the rise, and coke rose by nearly 4 %, ferrosilicon and coking coal rose by more than 3%, thermal coal and iron ore rose by more than 2%, and stainless steel rose by more than 2%; oils and fats rose, with palm oil and rapeseed oil rising by more than 2%; the energy and chemical sectors differentiated, with pulp rising by more than 3% %, crude oil rose by nearly 3%, PVC and plastics fell by more than 2%, PP and methanol fell by nearly 2%; in addition, Apple rose by more than 3%.
Tonight’s closing, energy and chemicals led the decline, EB fell more than 4%, NR, PP, etc. fell more than 1%, Zhengzhou alcohol, staple fiber, etc. fell slightly; coking coal, coke Prices rose by more than 2%, Zhengzhou Coal, Iron Ore, etc. rose by more than 1%, sugar, pulp, etc. rose slightly; the main corn futures contract rose by more than 1%, setting a new record high of 2,698 yuan/ton.
Black series “carnival” again
Black series bull Xiao Li told the Futures Daily reporter that this It was an exciting week. He said that the price of black varieties this week first rose, then fell, and then rose again. The situation in his account was first profit, then loss, and then profit, and his mood fluctuated accordingly.
Why are the prices of black products so volatile?
“The recent conflict in black commodity prices has turned to steel. As overseas demand gradually recovers, but the resumption of blast furnace production in the United States, Japan and South Korea is slow, overseas steel prices have risen sharply, and domestic Steel export profits have recovered.” Gu Meng, a senior researcher in the black department of Orient Securities Futures, said that currently, hot coils, rebars and steel billets have all achieved export profits, driving domestic steel prices to rise rapidly. At the same time, the demand for building materials is also better than previous seasonal patterns. As of the week of December 25, the inventories of the five major categories are still being depleted. The accumulation of rebar is obviously slower than in previous years, and the estimated weekly apparent consumption Volume is also better than the same period last year. The high inventory problem that previously restricted steel prices has been significantly improved in the fourth quarter, which is also an important factor driving the rapid rise in steel prices.
“The sharp increase in the price of black series products is mainly due to the strong actual demand for building materials and the supply side being disturbed by power cuts and maintenance, resulting in shortages and lack of specifications. The demand for panels is improving. Consistent expectations are superimposed on the comprehensive impact of factors such as cost push caused by the supply and demand gap of raw materials coke and iron ore. After the release of emotions, in the face of the fermentation of the epidemic and poor transactions after the rapid increase in prices, the overall price fell back.” Wang Dong, a black researcher at Guangzhou Futures, told reporters.
Industry sources said that from the supply side, rebar production continued to decline this week. Due to routine maintenance and low-profit conversions, the reduction mainly came from long-process steel mills and short-process steel mills. Although output was affected by power cuts, it rose slightly month-on-month due to better profits. Due to the gap in the raw material end, iron ore and coke are performing strongly, while rebar prices are weak among steel products and profits are not good, so it is difficult for supply to rebound. On the demand side, rebar inventories continued to double, and apparent consumption dropped slightly month-on-month, but the year-on-year growth expanded to 14.7%. Rebar demand performance is still good. In the later period, as the weather gets colder and the Spring Festival holiday approaches, the demand for rebar is expected to gradually decline month-on-month, but the year-on-year performance is expected to remain strong. Strong raw material prices and low steel profits have made the cost support for rebar relatively solid.
In addition, Vietnam and Malaysia have recently decided to impose anti-dumping duties on some steel products originating in or imported from China. Although these two items are the final rulings of the early anti-dumping investigations, it is worth noting that the import of domestically produced finished products is a rigid demand during the severe overseas epidemic. However, in the stage of recovery of foreign supply, my country’s exports may face more trade frictions in the process of converting from finished products to raw materials such as steel.
“At the current stage, the cost support below the price of rebar is relatively solid. Due to the emotional impact of anti-dumping and other news before the epidemic, the mood has cooled down. The sharp rise in prices in the early stage requires periodic adjustments. , but the pattern of weak supply and strong demand before the Spring Festival is expected to continue, and the overall bullish mentality will be maintained.” Wang Dong said.
However, Gu Meng believes that there are certain irrational factors in the sharp rise in steel prices, especially last weekend when northern steel mills significantly increased their quotations, but actual transactions were limited, which also led to The steel price in the first half of the weekExpectations for a recovery in energy demand.
“Looking at the market outlook, the center of gravity of crude oil prices will slowly rise, and the fundamental supply and demand will show a tight balance in stages. Therefore, the logic of destocking to support prices is still there. In addition, in terms of macro In the context of loose liquidity, oil prices will still be popular, so prices are stable and relatively strong. The risk lies in the release of new risks caused by vaccines that are less effective than expected or virus mutations that exceed expectations.” Zhong Meiyan said.
Zhang Xiao, an energy and chemical researcher at Guoyuan Futures, told reporters that PVC prices fell sharply on the 25th and were leading the decline during the day, mainly because some maintenance companies restarted operations in the early stage and Qingdao Haijing The full-capacity production has driven the device operating rate to rise sharply, causing corporate inventories to rise. According to statistics, the weekly operating rate of PVC manufacturers last week was 79.78%, an increase of 0.35 percentage points month-on-month and an increase of 2.2 percentage points year-on-year. In particular, the operating rate of the ethylene process increased by 1.62% month-on-month to 63.25%. As of last weekend, PVC social inventory increased by 15.57 percentage points from last week and 41.67 percentage points year-on-year. In the downstream market, some parts of North China have limited or partially suspended production due to heavy pollution. In Jiangsu and Zhejiang, demand has weakened due to power cuts. Companies generally are not willing to accept goods, and prices have fallen sharply. In the short term, the supply side is relatively abundant, and the demand side construction starts remain low, resulting in relatively weak market procurement, and PVC prices mainly fluctuate weakly.
“From the perspective of plastics, the current operating rate of domestic petrochemical plants still maintains a high level of oscillation, basically above 90% this week, and the supply of goods in the spot market is relatively sufficient. However, due to environmental protection, Factors such as power rationing have led to a sharp drop in the operating rate, and the demand for polyethylene raw materials has plummeted, resulting in a relative mismatch of supply, with prices hovering below 8,000 yuan/ton for a long time. According to statistics, the operating rate of agricultural film this week remained at 31.8%, higher than the previous It fell 7.5% week-on-week; the operating rate of packaging film fell 14.4% to 55.5%, the largest decline in recent times. The overall market atmosphere is bearish, with weak oscillations as the main force, so operate with caution.” Zhang Xiao said.
The above-mentioned interviewees believe that ethylene glycol imports are slowly recovering, and accumulation in the stockpile is expected to be strong in the later period. However, the current start-up of the polyester end is still at a high level. The current seasonal maintenance plans announced by polyester factories are relatively limited, part of which is caused by objective factors such as environmentally friendly boiler modifications or power cuts, and few proactively arrange maintenance. The short-term ethylene glycol market is expected to remain strong. The overall pressure on the supply side of polyolefins is not great at present, but it is expected to increase in the future. At the same time, the start-up in some downstream areas has declined, and demand follow-up efforts have slowed down. It is expected that there will be a replenishment drive before the New Year’s Day, and there is limited room for price reductions in polyolefins. In the methanol market, the biggest variable lies in the foreign import side. It is rumored that Iran has restricted the production of methanol units due to natural gas problems. This will have a very big impact on methanol imports in the future. The market adjustment space is limited, and the focus will continue to shift upward in the future. </p
