Overview
External crude oil has made a slight correction this week. The main Brent 03 contract has a weekly decline of 1.74% and fell below US$50 during the week. The weekly decline of WTI 02 main contract was 1.91%. The main contract of SC crude oil 2102 followed the external market correction this week, with a weekly decline of 1.84%.
The UK discovered the short-term emotional impact of the mutated virus. As of the reporting period, the cumulative number of confirmed cases in the United States reached 19.21 million, with nearly 340,000 deaths. India and Brazil rank second and third in cumulative confirmed cases. Pay attention to vaccine progress.
PTA:
The average price of PTA spot price first fell during the week and then rose until Friday. It is 3615 yuan/ton. The processing difference of TA disk in recent months has basically fluctuated in a narrow range of 620-650 this week, the main processing difference has basically fluctuated in a narrow range of 740-780, the highest processing difference has declined slightly month-on-month, and the spot processing difference of TA has basically remained stable at 567. Zhongtai Chemical’s 1.2 million-ton unit was shut down at 10.5, and products were shipped last Sunday, and production was back to normal in the middle of the week; Zhuhai BP Petrochemical’s 1.1-million-ton unit was overhauled last weekend and is expected to restart at the end of December; Hanbang Petrochemical’s 2.2-million-ton unit was diverted due to shipping closures and raw materials were diverted Tight, the load dropped around last Friday and recovered around the beginning of this week; the 12.23 maintenance phase of the 4.5 million ton unit of Fuhua Industry and Trade is planned for 25 days, and the domestic load of PTA dropped sharply to 84.8%. The polyester load continues to weaken slightly. As of Friday, preliminary calculations indicate that the domestic polyester comprehensive load is at 89.6%, and the weakening of supply and demand has not yet come.
This week, construction starts in the lower reaches of Jiangsu and Zhejiang declined due to power restrictions, mainly due to the addition of elastic. Texturing operations dropped to 86%; loom operations dropped slightly to 85%; dyeing plants overall operations fell to 83%. The average monthly transaction volume of China Textile City in November fell by 8% year-on-year, and the month-on-month decrease was significantly improved. It is expected that the decline will continue to improve to -2% in December. Polyester is currently profitable. External crude oil has stabilized and rebounded after a sharp correction this week. The PTA-PX spread has fluctuated at a low level, and cost support remains.
Ethylene glycol:
The average spot price of oil-based ethylene glycol rose sharply to 4150 Yuan/ton; the price near coal production rose sharply to 3,950 Yuan/ton. The main basis of ethylene glycol fluctuated widely during the week [-204, -147]. As of December 21, the MEG port inventory in the main port area of East China was approximately 835,000 tons, a decrease of 141,000 tons from the previous period. Last week, the arrival forecast at the port was 170,000 tons, but the actual arrival volume was only over 50,000 tons. The arrival forecast for this week is about 198,000 tons. However, due to the sea closure, the port has not yet returned to normal. The arrival at the port is expected to be postponed. Pay attention to the time when the port sea closure will be lifted. As of December 24, the overall operating load of domestic ethylene glycol was 58.79%, of which the operating load of coal-based ethylene glycol was 42.57%. Domestic supply has dropped significantly. Overseas: Lotte Dashan 1#’s restart plan has been postponed. A set of 828,000 tons from South Asia (United States) will be parked on December 19th and is expected to be parked for about 3-4 weeks. The current supply and demand drive is still upward. The increase in overseas supply may be delayed, and the increase in January may be more obvious. EG05 is strong in the short term.
Cost and profit
1 Raw material market
NPT (cfr Japan ) followed the sharp rise in crude oil this week, rising to $472.5/ton on Thursday. The external crude oil market has made a slight correction this week, with the main Brent 03 contract falling by 1.74% on a weekly basis and falling below US$50 during the week. The weekly decline of WTI 02 main contract was 1.91%. The naphtha-Brent spread fluctuated and widened this week, reaching US$95.5 as of Thursday; the naphtha-WTI spread followed the same trend, reaching around US$118 as of Friday. The price of PX (cfr China) followed the slight correction of crude oil this week, reaching US$618 on Thursday. The PX-NPT spread fluctuated at a low this week, reaching US$146 on Thursday. The operating rates of PX China and Asia both rebounded significantly from last week.
2 Cost and profit changes
The average spot price of oil-based ethylene glycol rose sharply during the week, rising to 4,150 yuan/ton on Friday. The spot price near coal production has risen sharply to 3,950 yuan/ton. Coal prices rose sharply, and coal production losses narrowed slightly. The cash flow of externally produced ethylene to ethylene glycol remained basically stable this week compared with last week, with a loss of US$180/ton. Naphtha-to-ethylene glycol remained at basic breakeven, turning a profit to $14 during the week and then losing money again to about $8. Methanol prices fluctuated this week, and the cash flow loss of the methanol MTO production route narrowed slightly to less than 1,900 yuan/ton.
Supply
1 Equipment maintenance status
PTA Domestic Devices: Zhongtai Chemical’s 1.2 million ton device was shut down on 10.5, products were shipped last Sunday, and normal production was resumed in the middle of the week; Zhuhai BP Petrochemical’s 1.1 million ton device was overhauled last weekend and is expected to restart at the end of December; Hanbang Petrochemical’s 2.2 million ton device Due to the tight supply of raw materials due to the shipping ban, the load dropped around last Friday and resumed around the beginning of this week; the 12.23 maintenance phase of the 4.5 million-ton unit of Fuhua Industry and Trade was planned for 25 days, and the domestic load of PTA dropped sharply to 84.8%.
Table 1: PTA’s recent major device changes
Data source: CCF Zhongzhou Energy and Chemical Research Institute
Ethylene glycol unit: Starting from December 2020, the CCF MEG production capacity will be revised up to 15.835 million tons, the total coal-to-ethylene glycol production capacity will be revised up to 5.99 million tons, and the newly added Henan Energy will be�200,000 tons in the second phase and 600,000 tons in Xinjiang Tianye. As of December 24, the overall operating load of domestic ethylene glycol was 58.79%, of which the operating load of coal-based ethylene glycol was 42.57%. Domestic supply has dropped significantly. The subsequent start-up of Sinopec Wuhan’s 280,000-ton unit remained at around 20%, mainly producing ethylene oxide; the second phase load of CNOOC and Shell dropped slightly to around 15%, and is expected to last until the end of the month; Henan Yongcheng’s 200,000-ton unit was temporarily shut down on 11.17. Restart to be determined; Inner Mongolia Rongxin Chemical’s 400,000-ton unit will be inspected from 11.20, and discharging will be restarted on 12.25, and the load is increasing; Henan Coal Mining (Puyang)’s 200,000-ton unit will be shut down for maintenance in advance near the 20th, and it is expected to take 20 days; Shanxi Woneng The load of the 300,000-ton unit was reduced to 50% on 12.21 and is expected to resume operation on 12.25; the load of the second phase 200,000-ton unit of Henan Coal Industry (Yongcheng) was reduced to 50% and is expected to resume at the end of the month; the 300,000-ton unit of Qianxi Coal Chemical Industry was temporarily shut down on 12.21 Or until the end of the month. Maintenance plan: Fude Energy plans to perform maintenance for 10 days in January; Maoming Petrochemical’s 120,000-ton unit maintenance plan is postponed to 2021.
Table 2: MEG’s recent major device changes:
Data source: CCF Zhongzhou Energy and Chemical Research Institute
2PTA inventory
PTA converted social total inventory this week It rebounded again, with warehouse receipts continuing to rise sharply, PTA factory inventory and polyester factory raw material inventory both declining slightly. Circulation inventories continued to decline significantly this week.
3 Ethylene glycol import and port inventory
As of December 21, the main port in East China The regional MEG port inventory is approximately 835,000 tons, a decrease of 141,000 tons from the previous period. Last week, the arrival forecast at the port was 170,000 tons, but the actual arrival volume was only over 50,000 tons. The arrival forecast for this week is about 198,000 tons. However, due to the closure of shipping, the port has not yet returned to normal, and arrivals are expected to continue to be postponed.
Demand
1 Polyester
1.1 Polyester operating rate and Equipment changes
Effective from December 1, 2020, the polyester production capacity has been revised up to 63.2 million tons, with an additional 300,000 tons of Tongkun and 300,000 tons of Xinfengming added. This week, the equipment has been opened for maintenance and maintenance. Overall, the polyester load has been reduced. As of this Friday, preliminary calculations indicate that the domestic polyester comprehensive load is 89.6%. At the end of the year, we pay attention to the plan to reduce factory production shutdowns during the Spring Festival. This year, there is an obvious characteristic that the peak season is slow and delayed, and the off-season is not slow.
Table 3: Recent major changes in polyester equipment:
Data source: CCF Zhongzhou Energy and Chemical Research Institute
1.2 Polyester Inventory
As of this Friday, the equity inventories of POY, FDY and DTY in Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester factories are respectively at 10.3, 13.2, 11.7 days. Due to the greater impact of texturing and power constraints, except for DTY, which was slightly destocked, POY and FDY were once again accumulated. Currently, all polyester products are profitable. Polyester staple fiber stocks rebounded slightly to -1 day. The average inventory of polyester bottle flakes is maintained at 20-25 days. The inventory of polyester staple fiber remains at the lowest level in the same period of the past year; the inventory of polyester bottle flakes remains at the highest level in the same period of the past year; the inventory of polyester filament is basically the second highest level in the same period of the past year.
2 terminal situation
This week, construction starts in the lower reaches of Jiangsu and Zhejiang declined due to power restrictions, mainly due to the addition of elastic. Texturing operations dropped to 86%; loom operations dropped slightly to 85%; dyeing plants overall operations fell to 83%.
The inventory days of gray fabrics in sample enterprises in Shengze area has recently dropped from 41.5 days to 41 days, which is still the highest level in the same period in previous years. The average monthly transaction volume of China Textile City in November fell by 8% year-on-year, and the month-on-month decrease was significantly improved. It is expected that the decline will continue to improve to -2% in December. </p
