my country’s cotton spinning and chemical fiber sector has been seriously replaced in recent years. In 2009, the 4 trillion economic stimulus plan was introduced. In 2010, the price of cotton and chemical fiber surged, accelerating the expansion of chemical fiber production capacity. In recent years, the overall output of chemical fiber has also shown a steady trend. The growth trend is that in the past 7-8 years, the average output growth rate has been around 5%, reaching a growth rate of 15% in 2019. However, this year the growth rate has dropped due to factors such as the epidemic, but the absolute value of output is moderate. There has been positive growth, while cotton production has declined since peaking in 2007, and has gradually entered a stable period, with basically negative growth over the past eight years. Therefore, chemical fibers have gradually filled the gap in demand for natural fibers in the cotton spinning industry, and their status has continued to improve.
There are three major components in the cotton yarn industry, cotton, viscose staple fiber and polyester staple fiber (excluding recycled).
From the overall volume point of view, the viscose industry is currently relatively stable, and the overall proportion has been basically stable at around 20% in recent years. There has been a slight decline this year. The substitution role of cotton and polyester shorts this year has increased since last year. This year, the overall proportion of cotton has dropped again from 47% to 45%, a decrease of 2 percentage points from the consumption of the three raw materials, and a decrease of 7 percentage points from the previous year. However, the consumption of polyester shorts has once again increased by 4 percentage points.
The substitution of cotton and polyester shorts has been enhanced. On the one hand, of course, factors related to cotton itself, such as import quota restrictions, the relocation of pure cotton yarn production markets, cotton land cultivation, human and economic factors, etc., have reduced the overall domestic cotton demand. But another important thing is also due to the impact of the consumption downgrade that has been mentioned in the market since last year, which has shifted to the polyester segment with the lowest cost; finally, due to the epidemic this year, the demand for polyester non-woven hygiene segments and home textile fillings has increased.
Judging from the production capacity planning next year, the proportion of polyester will further increase.
There are relatively many overall plans for polyester staple fiber in the next year. Currently, 3.05 million tons of polyester staple fiber are relatively clear. It is conservatively estimated that the number that can be put into production next year is around 1.5 million tons. The production capacity will increase. The speed reaches 17%. And there are still many preliminary plans that are not very clear in the later stage. If large polyester companies such as Xinfengming Phase II and Hengli Tongkun were originally polyester filament companies, they are gradually considering entering the polyester staple fiber industry. The overall polyester staple fiber production capacity development has entered a new cycle. Moreover, the overall differentiation rate has also gradually increased, such as hollow, low melting point and spunlace. Among them, driven by the two-child policy, the aging population and the current hygiene concept, spunlace non-woven staple fibers have greater development potential in the later period.
In the viscose sector, in just two decades, the production capacity of viscose staple fiber has grown from less than 500,000 tons to the current 5.24 million tons. The scale has expanded more than ten times. It is the largest increase in production capacity among chemical fiber products. The product that ranks first in terms of speed. However, the growth rate of viscose staple fiber production capacity has slowed down in the past two years. This year, Sateri China has a 250,000-ton unit put into production, but there will basically be no new specifications for ordinary products next year. After several years of rapid development, the conventional product boom cycle has ended, and the development of viscose staple fiber production capacity has entered a period of stagnation.
Although there will be no new production capacity for ordinary products in the later period, under the wood-based and green concepts, the application fields have been effectively expanded, the industry differentiation rate has increased significantly, and investment has mostly concentrated on industrial, lyocell and other high-end products. Value-added products. Some companies have long-term plans to produce nearly 3 million tons in 2030, of which projects currently under construction are estimated to be around 300,000-500,000 tons.
Although the replacement of chemical fiber products in the cotton spinning sector is rapid, looking at the entire chemical fiber sector, the entire cotton spinning sector is actually showing a shrinking trend. As can be seen from the figure above, from 2014 to the present, the overall output of cotton-type chemical fiber viscose staple fiber and polyester staple fiber is still declining in the entire chemical fiber field. The proportion of viscose staple fiber has dropped by 1 percentage point, while polyester staple fiber has declined by 1 percentage point. Short fiber decreased by 3 percentage points. Among them, the output of polyester filament far exceeds that of other chemical fiber products, occupying the top position, and the proportion is still increasing. And the polyester filament production expansion cycle has not yet ended. In the next one or two years, polyester production capacity will still maintain an annual growth rate of about 4 million tons. It is expected that 4.6 million tons of production capacity will be put into production next year, with a growth rate of over 10%.
To sum up, whether it is the continuous expansion of its own production capacity of polyester staple fiber or filament or the development of viscose staple fiber into differentiated product fields, the future train of chemical fiber replacement will continue to move towards Drive forward. </p
