Focus on arbitrage opportunities for production capacity expansion and demand recovery
1. Analysis of the macroeconomic situation
Picture 1: GDP year-on-year growth rate
Source: Wind, BOC International Futures
Figure 2: PMI data comparison
Data source: wind, BOC International Futures
Figure 3: Cumulative year-on-year fixed asset investment completion amount
Datasource:wind,BOCInternationalFutures
Figure 4: Changes in total population (unit: 10,000)
Data source: Wind, BOC International Futures
Figure 5: Commercial housing sales area
Data source: Wind, BOC International Futures
Figure 6: USD/CNY spot exchange rate
Data source: Wind, BOC International Futures
2. Market review in 2020
Figure 7: PTA upstream product prices
Source: Wind, BOC International Futures
Note: PTA/ethylene glycol/crude oil: Domestic futures closing price; PX/Naphtha: US dollar price exchange rate conversion income.
Figure 8: PTA basis
Source: Wind, Bank of China International Futures
Figure 9: Ethylene glycol basis
Data source: Wind, BOC International Futures
Figure 10: Short fiber basis difference
Source: Wind, BOC International Futures
Three , demand recovery in the post-epidemic period
1. Terminal apparel and textile market
Figure 11: Keqiao Textile finished product prosperity index
Data source: Wind, BOC International Futures
Figure 12: Export delivery value of clothing, footwear and hats textiles
Data source: wind, BOC International Futures
Figure 13: Year-on-year changes in inventories in the textile, clothing and apparel industry
Data source: Wind, BOC International Futures
Figure 14: Wholesale and retail sales above designated size (textiles and clothing)
Data source: wind, BOC International Futures
2. Chemical fiber-weaving link downstream of the industrial chain
Figure 15: Keqiao Keqiao Chemical Fiber Fabric Prosperity Index
Source: Wind, BOC International Futures
Figure 16: Keqiao Foreign Trade Boom Index
Data source: Wind, BOC International Futures
Figure 17: Keqiao polyester Prosperity Index
Data source: Wind, BOC International Futures
Figure 18: Month-on-month changes in textile inventory
Data source: Wind, BOC International Futures
3. 2020 PTA industry chain supply and demand data analysis
Figure 19: Polyester filament factory inventory
Source: Wind , BOC International Futures
Figure 20: Factory inventories of various polyester links
Source: Wind, BOC International Futures
Figure 21: Polyester filament production and year-on-year growth
Data source: CCFEI, BOC International Futures
Figure 22 : Polyester staple fiber output and year-on-year growth
Data source: CCFEI, BOC International Futures
Figure 23: Polyester bottle flake production and year-on-year growth
Data source: CCFEI, BOC International Futures
Figure 24: PTA production
Data source: Wind, BOC International Futures
Figure 25: PTA social circulation inventory
Data source: CCFEI, BOC International Futures
Figure 26: Changes in factory load rates in each link
Source: Wind, BOC International Futures
4. Severe fluctuations in upstream costs
Figure 27: PTA processing price difference
Data source: Wind, BOC International Futures
Figure 28: PX processing spread
Data source: Wind, BOC International Futures
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