A few days ago, the Central Meteorological Observatory issued the first cold wave warning since the second half of 2020. After the warning was issued, a cold wave began to gradually freeze through our country from north to south – snowflakes were flying in many places in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, and temperatures were high in many places in South my country. It has dropped to a new low since the second half of this year, and there are even “winter days” with average temperatures below 10 degrees in many places. After this cold wave, the scope of winter in southern my country is still expanding.
The super cold wave caused the temperature to drop sharply. For the clothing and textile industry, which depends on the weather, the super cold wave is like a wave of benefits for textile workers. Recently, the gray fabric market has seen a rebound with an increase in orders.
The weaving start-up remains high at the end of the year, and there is not a strong intention to reduce production unless the policy affects it
After entering mid-December, the atmosphere of market goods hoarding has heated up again. At present, we have learned from dyeing factories that a lot of market goods have been put into warehouses recently. Large orders of hundreds of thousands of meters or millions of meters that disappeared in the early stage have reappeared, and there are many transactions. Orders focused on stretch fabrics, pongee, polyester taffeta and other fabrics used in autumn and winter are still performing well.
From the demand side, this market outbreak is not sudden, and is in line with the market development pattern in previous years. On the one hand, domestic and foreign customers have placed orders in order to avoid the traditional Spring Festival holiday. Orders are placed 1.5-2 months in advance. This year, due to the combined impact of the epidemic and market conditions, the market has entered the Spring Festival vacuum period earlier than in previous years, which has also prompted this wave of orders to be placed intensively, with downstream traders and garment factories purchasing.
At the same time, both light and medium-thick fabric manufacturers currently have a certain amount of inventory. However, judging from recent surveys, most companies still maintain Operating at full capacity. For textile enterprises, the recent market order situation is better than in the previous period. Enterprises that make orders have more or less orders on hand, so they are working at full capacity to deliver goods before the year; in addition, Jiangsu and Zhejiang and other places are due to power cuts and Sudden shutdown policies caused by environmental protection and other issues have also been fermented recently, which puts great pressure on textile workers who are rushing to buy goods at the end of the year. In the short term, it will increase production pressure and delay delivery.
Even companies with poor performance in orders on hand are taking advantage of the relatively low price of raw materials this year and the long storage time of chemical fiber fabrics. Therefore, as long as funds can be allocated, they can reduce production. The intention is not strong.
The industry chain has entered the restocking and stocking stage before the Spring Festival, and downstream companies are still bargain hunting Enthusiasm for raw materials
At the same time, the industrial chain has recently entered the stage of restocking and stocking up before the Spring Festival. Traders and textile factories are rushing to purchase raw materials, and weaving factories and various light industries are rushing to purchase raw materials. Middlemen in the textile city are rushing to purchase cotton yarn and gray fabrics. From the perspective of the polyester market, since a wave of centralized purchasing began in late November, small peaks in production and sales have occurred intermittently on weekends and at the end of the month. Although the intensity of the recent purchasing boom has been lower than before, the inventory of polyester factories has been digested in this wave of production and sales climax. The recent mainstream inventory of polyester filament POY and FDY has been 11-18 days, which is higher than the previous period. Inventories have fallen, with some companies’ inventories being as low as 1-4 days, and in some cases as high as 22-27 days. Therefore, polyester factories currently do not have much inventory pressure and have a strong willingness to raise prices.
In addition, from the perspective of the yarn market, the current operating rate of large and medium-sized spinning mills is relatively high, exceeding 90% in coastal areas such as Jiangsu and Zhejiang. The front-line orders are relatively full in late January, especially The production and sales of carded and combed yarns of 50S and above are active. Although the shipment of OE yarn has not started obviously, the yarn mills have achieved flat production and sales or low-profit production.
Take POY150/48 as an example. Its average price reached 7,000 yuan in the same period last year, but it is still hovering below 6,000 yuan now. Although prices have risen again, the overall price is still relatively low. Therefore, from a business perspective, the absolute low price will increase everyone’s confidence in stocking up, and will also stimulate everyone’s enthusiasm for bargain hunting. Bosses who are willing to prepare goods at this time believe that with the arrival of the peak season, there is always room for appreciation in the current stocking, or there is a high probability that the value will increase. However, if the order comes late, the waiting time will be longer. torment.
In summary, polyester prices are currently recovering steadily. According to the current polyester load and inventory levels, the pattern of polyester raw materials will remain strong. The progress of accumulated inventory will continue to be pushed back. Now the raw materials are in a strong spot situation. The only concern of the market is still when the demand side will regain its strength.
In addition, some risk events also deserve everyone’s attention.
First, there are concerns that the epidemic in Europe and the United States will continue to get out of control in the first quarter of 2021. According to trading companies in Shanghai and Zhejiang, affected by the recent “lockdown” in some European countries and Japan, some textile and clothing orders signed in October and November have encountered execution difficulties, and with the emergence of the new coronavirus in the United Kingdom, South Africa and other countries, Due to the impact of mutations (increased infectiousness by 40%-70%) and insufficient vaccine production capacity, market sentiment continues to rise;
Secondly, shipping rates soared in November and December, and containers It is difficult to find cabinets. In addition, China’s exports of electronic products, auto parts, small commodities, etc. have rebounded strongly, and export costs have increased rapidly. This puts great pressure on textile and clothing companies that rely on “small profits and quantity” to win;
The third is examination�By 2021, the Federal Reserve will implement “unlimited” easing, and the pressure for RMB appreciation will increase. Textile and clothing companies are worried that the limited profits from long-term and large orders will once again be swallowed up by sharp fluctuations in the exchange rate;
Fourth, judging from the external market, domestic industrial chain, and futures internal and external market trends, raw materials are “easy to rise but difficult to fall” in 2021. However, foreign buyers and retailers under the raging epidemic not only generally lower prices, but also have strict contract enforcement. From the later stage, From the perspective of rising costs and reducing contract risks, companies are cautious about accepting long-term and large orders. </p
