In the past few days, the UK has been “locked down” by dozens of countries around the world. Shortly thereafter, Japan took the initiative to “lock down the country” and cut off personnel exchanges with other countries in the world. Then, Indonesia also announced that due to the emergence of a more transmissible variant of the new coronavirus, Indonesia will suspend the entry of all foreigners into Indonesia from January 1 to January 14, 2021.
So far, countries including Japan, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Oman and other countries have adopted a “closing down” strategy in response to the British mutated new coronavirus. Please note that these countries’ proactive “lockdown” is different from the phased blockade measures adopted by their own countries in the past. Instead, they have cut off all overseas passenger flights and land checkpoints, and completely cut off personnel exchanges with overseas countries.
Why do these countries take such extreme measures?
The most fundamental reason is that the British mutated new coronavirus has increased its infectivity by 70%. In winter, when the infection rate is extremely fast, if it is allowed to If it spreads, the consequences will be unimaginable and the cost will be huge. We can see this clearly from the recent surge in the number of confirmed cases in the UK.
However, it is regrettable that although many countries have blocked the UK and cut off personnel exchanges with the UK, it is too late. Cases of mutated viruses are starting to be reported.
JP Morgan Chase had earlier proposed a “multiple shock outbreak” model, believing that after the peak infection data reaches an inflection point, the new crown epidemic may face multiple outbreaks in the future. situation; the power of transmission in later rounds will gradually decrease, and a vaccine will still be needed to completely eliminate the virus.
If it is really a “multi-round shock outbreak” situation, then the U-shaped rebound predicted by Standard & Poor’s will probably not appear, but an “L-shaped rebound” ” in a long-term decline. To put it simply, after the epidemic, retaliatory consumption may only gradually arrive in a few years.
As long as the epidemic is still spreading in any country, It is possible that it will sweep the world again and threaten the global market and economy.
Now it seems that this late spring cold will continue on a global scale, and the wave of bankruptcies will continue to exist to a certain extent. Bankruptcy is terrible, but the failure to recover after the collapse is the last straw for foreign traders.
“Financial” magazine divides damaged foreign trade companies into two categories, one is called “frozen”, especially for fast fashion giants, customers are affected by the epidemic. In the face of market changes caused by this, we will quickly make decisions to cancel or suspend orders. Such a decision will cause foreign trade companies to enter winter in an instant.
The dock in “Frozen”, empty No one
The other is called “the butcher’s knife hanging from the neck”, because the “knife” may or may not fall. This situation is common in the textile and apparel field. Due to the long procurement cycle, customers cannot give a clear answer to existing orders, delivery time, etc.
So it often happens that the goods have been sent out at sea, but the customer suddenly says they don’t need them anymore. what to do? I was forced to turn back and had to pay for the shipping fee myself.
Therefore, the uncertainty of this kind of “butcher’s knife hanging on the neck” is to some extent more tormenting to foreign trade people than the “snap freeze”.
In December, stimulated by the good news about the vaccination of the new crown vaccine in many countries, international oil prices began to rebound and once again stood at the US$50/barrel mark. Polyester filament Manufacturers’ quotations have also begun to rise. Since December, the focus of polyester filament negotiations has been slightly higher, rising by 500-800 yuan/ton from the closing price at the end of November. However, recently, the market has continued to report confirmed cases of mutated new coronavirus infection in many countries, and some countries have begun to extend or even restart their blockade policies, which has poured “cold water” on the market’s expectations for the first half of next year.
2020 has ended, but the market at the end of the year is still facing various difficulties. 2021 is coming, what will the market be like in the coming year?
1. Rising raw materials: not losing money has become the biggest hope
When profits are compressed to At the same time, raw material prices began to rise massively. First came nylon, spandex, and finally polyester filament. The price of gray fabrics also increased to varying degrees driven by raw materials.
Trader Manager Yang complained that there was no profit from taking orders now, and the price of raw materials has risen again, making the cost more expensive. Even though we are still losing money, being able to finish a few orders in hand while maintaining capital is already the greatest luxury.
2. Freight is difficult: containers need to be “lottered” to try their luck
The goods are made. It’s a hassle to transport it out.
The foreign epidemic has counterattacked, and local production has been greatly affected.�Demand for Chinese manufacturing continues unabated, coupled with a lack of overseas manpower to unload cargo, resulting in a large number of containers being held up in European and American ports. Containers “go and never come back”, which also makes many cloth bosses watch a large number of orders and produced products, but they just can’t be shipped out. This situation has lasted for half a year. For this reason, exporters’ advance booking time has been continuously extended, from one week in advance to one month in advance. Sometimes they even need to lottery to try their luck.
As the end of the year approaches, the “hard to find a box” situation has not improved, and has even intensified.
3. The price is difficult: if the price is lowered, you will be deducted
Mr. Wang, the person in charge of an imitation silk fabric production company, said that the export market of imitation silk this year is not good, resulting in a large amount of inventory in the market and a serious oversupply. Therefore, traders often push prices very low, with almost no profit. Not only that, while keeping prices down, there are also all kinds of nitpicks. In previous years, some acceptable small mistakes that were unavoidable in the production process will become reasons for deducting money this year, which further reduces the already small profits. .
Mr. Wang’s experience is not an isolated case, but a common phenomenon every year when the market is not good. In this year’s epidemic environment, sales are poor. The imitation silk was “eaten to death”.
4. Difficulties in foreign trade: “Christmas” and “New Year’s Day” may be silent
China’s textile and apparel industry is highly dependent on exports. At the beginning of the year, despite the epidemic, the export volume of textile and apparel products increased instead of decreasing, mainly because of the overseas epidemic outbreak countries. The strong demand for anti-epidemic supplies has driven the export of our anti-epidemic fabrics, anti-epidemic clothing and masks. However, the number of domestic companies involved in epidemic prevention is still limited, and most of them are ordinary clothing fabric factories. There are not many companies that can profit from this wave.
Since December, the out-of-control epidemic situation in Europe and the United States has once again cast a shadow on the export of textile and apparel fabrics. There are generally 600,000-700,000 new cases every day in the world, and sometimes even nearly 800,000. The number of new confirmed cases every day in the United States is generally more than 200,000. The epidemic in the UK is even more exaggerated. British Health Secretary Hancock said that the new strain of the new coronavirus discovered in the country has gone out of control. The mutated new virus is 70% more transmissible than the original strain. London, UK, has begun to stage a mass exodus. .
Uncertain expectations: Inventory may affect the textile and apparel market next year.
Due to the renewed outbreak of the epidemic and restrictions on people’s travel during the 2020 Christmas season in Europe and the United States, it will inevitably lead to unsalable sales in the clothing market. This part of the inventory of clothing will undoubtedly appear in the autumn and winter market next year, which will certainly lead to a reduction in fabric orders for autumn and winter clothing next year.
On the other hand, the current textile and apparel market is generally optimistic about the market in the second half of next year. This view is mainly based on the gradual investment in vaccines. But will the emergence of a new strain in the UK cause the current vaccine to be ineffective? Of course, there is currently no definite evidence that the new strain may affect vaccines and treatments, but the possibility of an impact still exists.
The first half of next year is basically not optimistic due to the backlog of clothing inventory in this spring and summer, and there is a high probability that there will be no improvement in orders. Once the market loses its optimism about the second half of next year, the lack of orders will last throughout 2021. The vast majority of textile companies are already struggling to support themselves this year. If the market does not improve next year, many textile companies may go bankrupt and leave.
Until the global epidemic is brought under control, there are still great uncertainties in the textile market. Especially the recent worsening and loss of control of the epidemic in Europe and the United States has made the textile market in 2021 even more confusing.
</p
