Overview
Outside crude oil prices rose steadily in December. The main contract of Brent 03 increased by 8.5% monthly, and the main contract of WTI 02 increased by 7.08%. The increase was significantly narrower than that in November, and the overall price did not change. Uptrend. The main SC crude oil 2102 contract rebounded steadily in December following the external market, with a smaller monthly increase of 2.44%.
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PTA:
The main contract of TA2105 has a monthly increase of 7.91%. The average spot price of PTA was 3,595 yuan/ton on December 31, and the monthly average price was 3,518.1 yuan/ton, a significant increase of 329.7 yuan from the November average. TA’s spot processing difference slightly increased to 467 on December 31, and the monthly average spot processing difference was 541, which was 38 yuan wider than in November. The main processing difference on the TA market was 692, which was slightly narrower than in November. During the month, the main processing difference was experienced, and the monthly average futures processing difference was 748, which is still relatively high. The domestic monthly average load of PTA in December was about 88%, a slight increase of 2% from the monthly average in November. The monthly output is around 4.18 million tons. Fuhua Industry and Trade’s 4.5 million ton unit will be inspected from 12.23 and is expected to restart around 1.20; Yangzi Petrochemical’s 350,000 ton unit will be shut down from 11.3 and restart is to be determined; Zhuhai BP’s 1.1 million ton unit will be inspected in mid-December and is currently restarting; Sichuan Energy Investment 1 million The ton device will be parked near 12.28 and is expected to resume in a week. PTA’s domestic load dropped slightly to 83.10%. On the demand side, the polyester load has basically remained stable. As of December 31, preliminary calculations indicate that the domestic polyester comprehensive load is at 89.5%, which is not weak in the off-season. Last week, the start of construction in the lower reaches of Jiangsu and Zhejiang was affected by periodic energy conservation and environmental protection factors, and the load first decreased and then increased. Texturing operations rose slightly to 87%, loom operations first decreased and then increased, and are currently at 82% overall. Dyeing factory operations first decreased and then increased, with the overall recovery to 84%. Textile City’s average monthly transaction volume: The average monthly transaction volume of China Textile City dropped by 8% year-on-year in November, and the month-on-month decrease was significantly improved. The performance in December was outstanding, with a year-on-year increase of 11%. The contradiction between TA supply and demand is still there, with limited month-on-month changes and a narrow range of fluctuations.
Ethylene glycol:
The monthly increase of the main contract of EG2105 was 11.74%. EG’s rebound strength far exceeded that of TA. The rebound momentum of ethylene glycol in December was mainly driven by supply and demand, and destocking continued. The average spot price of oil-based ethylene glycol was 4,260 yuan/ton on December 31, and the average monthly price was about 3,973 yuan/ton, a significant increase of 238 yuan from the November average. The nearby price of coal was 4,025 yuan/ton on December 31, a sharp increase of 237 yuan from the average price in November. The price difference between oil and coal narrowed significantly to 63 in late December, and rose again to 235 at the end of the month. Ethylene glycol continued to be destocked in December, and port inventories dropped significantly by 247,000 tons from November. In the last three weeks of December, shipping schedules were continuously delayed and unloading was stalled due to shipping closures due to containers falling into the water and weather conditions. More arrivals are expected in January. The monthly domestic comprehensive load of ethylene glycol is 61.50%, and the monthly output is 811,500 tons. The import volume of ethylene glycol in November is only 625,000 tons. It is expected that December will increase slightly compared with November, but it is still at a low level. December supply is estimated at 1.52 million tons. The turning point for port inventories may arrive in mid-January.
Cost and profit
1 Raw material market
NPT (cfr Japan ) The average price in November was US$450.1/ton, a sharp increase of US$96.7/ton from the average price in October. It was US$487/ton on December 31. External crude oil prices rose steadily in December, with the monthly increase of the main Brent 03 contract reaching 8.5% and the monthly increase of the main WTI 02 contract reaching 7.08%. The increase was significantly narrower than that in November, and the overall upward trend did not change. The average price difference between naphtha and Brent in December was 80.7 US dollars, which was 19.2 US dollars wider than the November average. The price difference at the end of the month was more than 100 US dollars. The average naphtha-WTI price difference in December was 103.8 US dollars, which was 23.1 US dollars wider than the November average. US dollars, the price difference at the end of the month was more than 130 US dollars. PX (cfr China) rose sharply in December, with the monthly average price at US$603, a sharp increase of US$64.7 from the average price in November. The PX-NPT spread still fluctuates at a low level, with an average value of $153 in December, basically stable compared with the November average. The average monthly operating rate of PX China in December was 76.6%, which was stable compared with November; the average monthly operating rate of Asia PX in December was 76.65%, a significant decrease of 5.35% from the previous month.
2 Cost and profit changes
The coal-based load dropped to around 40% in mid-December and then rose back to over 50% at the end of the month. Coal-based losses recovered slightly at the end of the month. The average cash flow from externally produced ethylene to ethylene glycol in December was -186 US dollars per ton, a sharp increase of nearly 100 US dollars from November. Naphtha-to-ethylene glycol maintained at basic breakeven with a slight loss. The average cash flow in December was -3 US dollars, which was 21 US dollars higher than the loss in November. The average cash flow loss of the methanol MTO production route in December was 1,871 yuan/ton, which was 220 yuan/ton worse than the loss in November.
Supply
1 Equipment maintenance status
PTA domestic installation: Fu The 4.5 million ton unit of Chemical Industry and Trade will be inspected from 12.23 and is expected to restart around 1.20; the 350,000 ton unit of Yangzi Petrochemical will be shut down from 11.3 to be restarted; the 1.1 million ton unit of Zhuhai BP will be inspected in mid-December and is currently being restarted; Sichuan Energy Investment 1 million tons The device will be parked near 12.28 and is expected to be restored in a week. PTA’s domestic load dropped slightly to 83.10%.
Table 1���PTA’s recent major device changes
Data source: CCF Zhongzhou Energy and Chemical Research Institute
B Glycol device: Starting from December 2020, China’s total ethylene glycol production capacity is 15.835 million tons, and the total coal-to-ethylene glycol production capacity is 5.99 million tons. The newly added Henan Energy Yongcheng Phase II 200,000 tons/year and Xinjiang Tianye (Phase III) 600,000 tons/year synthesis gas to ethylene glycol units were added. Yanchang Petroleum’s new 100,000 tons/year unit successfully opened the process on 12.30 and produced polyester-grade ethylene glycol. The unit is currently being debugged. Capacity is factored into 2021. As of December 31, the overall operating load of domestic ethylene glycol was 60.81%, of which the operating load of coal-based ethylene glycol was 52.59%. The 500,000-ton unit of Zhongke Refining and Chemical was temporarily shut down at 12.30, and the fault is currently being investigated; the load of the second phase of the 400,000-ton unit of CNOOC and Shell has been restored, and the unit is operating well. The load dropped slightly by 15% on 12.10; Henan Coal Industry (Puyang) 200,000 tons The device was shut down on 12.20 and planned for 20 days; the 200,000-ton device of Henan Coal Industry (Yongcheng Phase II) was restored to full load on 12.28, and the load was reduced to 50% near 12.22; the 300,000-ton device of Qianxi Coal Chemical Industry was shut down on 12.21 and was shut down on 12.28 Restart discharging; Inner Mongolia Yankuang’s 400,000-ton unit was shut down for maintenance at 11.20 and restarted discharging at 12.25; Shanxi Woneng’s 300,000-ton unit dropped to 50% from 12.22-12.24.
Table 2: MEG’s recent major device changes:
Data source: CCF Zhongzhou Energy and Chemical Research Therefore, the domestic monthly average load of PTA in December was about 88%, a slight increase of 2% from the monthly average in November. The monthly output is about 4.18 million tons; the monthly domestic comprehensive load of ethylene glycol is 61.50%, and the monthly output is 811,500 tons. The import volume of ethylene glycol in November is only 625,000 tons. It is estimated that December will increase slightly compared with November. But it is still low, with the monthly supply of ethylene glycol estimated at 1.52 million tons.
2PTA inventory
The total PTA raw material inventory increased from 3.48 million tons at the end of November to 12.31 of 3.66 million tons, with the monthly accumulated inventory reaching 180,000 tons, an increase of 5%, and a month-on-month decrease.
3 Ethylene glycol imports and port inventories
Ethylene glycol import volume in November 2020 It was around 625,000 tons, a decrease of 119,000 tons from October, a decrease of around 16%. The total import volume of ethylene glycol from January to November 2020 was 9.998 million tons, an increase of 972,000 tons year-on-year. As of December 28, the MEG port inventory in the main port area of East China was approximately 852,000 tons, a significant decrease of 247,000 tons from November. In the last three weeks of December, shipping schedules were continuously delayed and unloading was stalled due to shipping closures due to containers falling into the water and weather conditions. More arrivals are expected in January.
Demand
1 Polyester
1.1 Polyester operating rate and device changes
The polyester plant continues to be put into operation. Starting from December 1, 2020, the polyester production capacity base has been revised upward to 63.2 million tons, with an additional 300,000 tons of Tongkun and 300,000 tons of Xinfengming (supporting the production of polyester filament). As of December 31, preliminary calculations indicate that the domestic polyester comprehensive load is 89.1%.
The average monthly polyester load in December was 90.36%, a slight decrease of 0.92% from the previous month. The average monthly output was 4.759 million tons. Due to the increase in production capacity base, monthly output was almost the same as last month.
Table 3: Recent major changes in polyester equipment:
Data Source: CCF Zhongzhou Energy and Chemical Research Institute
1.2 Polyester inventory and profit
As of December 31, the equity inventories of POY, FDY, and DTY in Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester factories were 9, 12.6, and 10.8 days respectively. POY inventory at the end of December dropped by 2 days compared with the end of November. FDY monthly inventory accumulated slightly to around 3,000 tons, and DTY monthly inventory destocked by 26,000 tons. Filament yarn made a slight profit in the first half of November, turned to losses in the second half of the month, turned losses into profits in mid-December, and made a profit of nearly 100 yuan by the end of the month.
Polyester staple fiber has been oversold since late October, maintaining negative inventory. The inventory remained -3 days on 12.31. Staple fiber profits have basically fluctuated between 400-500 yuan this month, and were 445 yuan by the end of the month.
Polyester bottle flakes were destocked due to shocks in December, and the inventory at the end of the month was above 20 days. Bottle flakes continued to make profits in December, with profits compressed to 149 yuan/ton by the end of the month.
Polyester staple fiber inventory remains at the lowest level over the same period in the past; polyester bottle flake inventory remains at the highest level during the same period over the past year, basically the same as the same period in 2019; polyester filament inventory except DTY is Except for the lowest level in the same period in previous years, they are all the second-highest levels in the same period in previous years. With the outstanding performance of the terminal, the current inventory pressure is limited.
2 Terminal situation
The start of construction in the lower reaches of Jiangsu and Zhejiang at the end of December was affected by periodic energy conservation and environmental protection factors, and the load first decreased and then increased. At the end of the month, texturing operations increased slightly to 87%, loom operations overall reached 82%, and dyeing factory operations recovered to 84%. In December, the average monthly load of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 84.4%, a decrease of 4.35% from November, and the average monthly load of comprehensive texturing was 90.40%, a decrease of 3.35% from November.
The inventory days of gray fabrics in sample enterprises in Shengze area dropped to 40 days in early November and then rose again to 41 days, which is still the highest level in the same period in previous years. Textile City’s average monthly transaction volume: The average monthly transaction volume of China Textile City dropped by 8% year-on-year in November, and the month-on-month decrease was significantly improved. The performance in December was outstanding, with a year-on-year increase of 11%.
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2 Terminal situation
At the end of December, the start-up of downstream Jiangsu and Zhejiang was affected by periodic energy-saving and environmental protection factors, and the load first dropped and then increased. At the end of the month, the start-up of texturing rose slightly to 87%, and the overall start-up of looms was 82% %, and the overall operation of dyeing plants recovered to 84%. The average monthly load of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang in December was 84.4%, a decrease of 4.35% from November, and the average monthly load of comprehensive texturing was 90.40%, a decrease of 3.35% from November.
The inventory days of gray fabrics in sample enterprises in Shengze area fell to 40 days in early November and then rose again to 41 days, which is still the highest level in the same period in previous years. Textile City’s average monthly transaction volume. China Textile City’s average monthly transaction volume in November The trading volume dropped by 8% year-on-year, and the month-on-month decrease was significantly improved. The performance in December was outstanding, with a year-on-year increase of 11%.</p
