After “getting off work” in 2020 and taking over in 2021, many people think that 2020 is too difficult. Now that the epidemic has basically become normal, I believe everyone is very much looking forward to the arrival of 2021. But time is like a torrent that never stops, but it can’t take away any pain that has happened. I’m afraid this year’s bad things are far from over.
The sudden mutated new coronavirus in the UK has made the world panic and uneasy. Many countries have adopted a “lockdown” strategy to deal with the mutated new coronavirus in the UK. Please note that these countries’ proactive “lockdown” is different from the phased blockade measures adopted by their own countries in the past. Instead, they have cut off all overseas passenger flights and land checkpoints, and completely cut off personnel exchanges with overseas countries.
After this wave of panic, cotton and PTA futures are prone to oversold or super-rising. Because in the face of all crises, funds are very smart and are preemptively allocated in a relatively pessimistic direction, so it is easy to oversold, or to overrise when optimism comes at the dawn of time. So can cotton futures prices still rise? This is the problem I have encountered the most recently, both in the upstream and downstream sectors of the textile industry.
Cotton and PTA are both upstream products in the textile industry and are both varieties of the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange. Because the upstream raw materials are different, there is no fixed price between the two. Basis, just after the first trading day of 2021, the entire futures market has generally risen, especially in the chemical industry. To a greater extent, it is driven by the price of crude oil, but the K-line chart can reflect everything in the market. Let’s look at the technical aspects below. Take a look at the overall performance of cotton and PTA.
The U.S. crude oil market remains strong and unchanged
The crude oil market is very sensitive to the impact of the epidemic, but as The epidemic has revived again. This time, crude oil has not been greatly affected, but continues to rise. As shown in the figure, daily trend chart of U.S. crude oil (B rises and S falls)
US crude oil return line trend chart
The rising trend of cotton futures has never changed
Since the beginning of April 2020, commodity futures prices have risen sharply, and cotton prices have been tepid. After the National Day, two major varieties have appeared in the domestic futures market, rising explosively. One is rubber, and the other is tepid. It is cotton. The rise only lasted for a week, and then there was a month-long correction in cotton. Recently it broke through the previous high and closed with a big positive line. The new round of rise remains strong. I wonder if it will maintain the bull market in the first half of the year as expected? Pictured: Cotton daily line.
Cotton daily trend chart
The bottom of PTA is gradually becoming clear
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PTA and methanol are the two chemical products in my futures selection, and they are also the ones I pay the most attention to. I have rarely shorted PTA since April last year, so I missed a lot of opportunities to fall. The last time I went long on PTA was before New Year’s Day (December 31, 2020) for the second time in a row. From the technical form of the K-line chart, it is not difficult to find that PTA first appeared in the “big four up” pattern on the hour, and then on the daily line. Rising pattern, this is a cyclical rising pattern.
Judging from the current PTA market trend, the daily line has once again broken through the previous high pressure level and closed with a big positive line throughout the day. The increase remains strong. I hope the market outlook will continue to rise…
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