Overview
In the first week of 2021, external crude oil rose sharply, with the main Brent 03 contract rising by 8.97% on a weekly basis, exceeding $56 during the week. The main WTI 02 contract saw a weekly increase of 8.9%, exceeding $52 during the week. The main contract of SC crude oil 2102 rose sharply last week following the external market, with a weekly increase of 11.53%. The weather is cold, and there are signs of a counterattack in some parts of the country. The number of new cases in the UK has exceeded 60,000 in a single day, and Scotland has been under lockdown. As of the reporting period, the cumulative number of confirmed cases in the United States is nearly 22.7 million, with more than 380,000 deaths. India and Brazil rank second and third in cumulative confirmed cases. Pay attention to vaccine progress and the domestic epidemic counterattack in winter.
PTA:
The average price of PTA spot prices continued to rise during the week, reaching 3850 last Friday. Yuan / ton. The main contract of TA2105 rose sharply by 5.45% on a weekly basis. The processing difference of TA in recent months basically fluctuated in the range of 510-570 last week. The main processing difference basically fluctuated in the range of 630-690. The processing difference range continued to compress month-on-month. The TA spot processing gap has been significantly reduced to around 450. The 4.5 million ton unit of Fuhua Industry and Trade will be inspected from 12.23 and is expected to restart around 1.20; the 1.25 million ton unit of Ineos (formerly Zhuhai BP) stopped briefly at the beginning of the month and has restarted on 1.6; the 1 million ton unit of Sichuan Energy Investment has stopped near 12.28 and has been restarted on 1.5 Restarted, the current load is 90%; Hanbang Petrochemical’s 2.2 million tons unit is operating at a reduced load of 1.6, and has been shut down for maintenance since 1.7. Under the new production capacity base of 57.63 million tons, the PTA load is 82.9%. On the demand side, with the new production capacity base of 61.99 million tons, as of 1.8, the preliminary calculation of the domestic polyester comprehensive load is 91.7%. Last week, the start of texturing in the lower reaches of Jiangsu and Zhejiang increased slightly, the looms dropped slightly, and the printing and dyeing maintained. The average monthly transaction volume of China Textile City dropped by 8% year-on-year in November, and increased significantly by 11% in December compared with the same period last year. It is expected to remain at a relatively high level in January. Polyester profit changes are differentiated. External crude oil prices rose sharply last week, the PX-NPT spread widened, and cost support increased.
Ethylene glycol:
The average spot price of oil-based ethylene glycol rose sharply at the beginning of the week to more than 4,400 yuan/ton, and as of last Friday it was 4,420 yuan/ton; coal prices have risen sharply to 4,150 yuan/ton and have remained stable for many consecutive days. The current structure of ethylene glycol futures has changed during the week, and the main basis has fluctuated widely at [-100, 12]. As of January 4, the MEG port inventory in the main port area of East China was approximately 817,000 tons, a decrease of 35,000 tons from the previous period. Last week, the arrival forecast at the port was 177,000 tons, but the actual arrival was 103,000 tons. The shipping schedule was postponed. The arrival forecast last week was about 232,000 tons. The port is expected to destock on Monday to less than 800,000 tons. As of January 7, the overall operating load of domestic ethylene glycol was 63.09% (increased), of which the operating load of coal-based ethylene glycol was 49.08% (decreased). Total domestic supply rebounded. Overseas: The 360,000 tons/year MEG device in South Asia in the United States is currently shut down and is expected to be shut down until the end of July 2021. The 828,000 tons/year new MEG unit in South Asia in the United States was shut down on January 4 due to insufficient ethylene. It is initially planned to restart in late January. The specific situation depends on the recovery of its 3# ethylene cracking unit.
Cost and profit
1 Raw material market
NPT (cfr Japan ) followed the sharp rise in crude oil last week, rising to $513/ton last Friday. In the first week of 2021, external crude oil rose sharply, with the main Brent 03 contract rising by 8.97% on a weekly basis, exceeding $56 during the week. The main WTI 02 contract saw a weekly increase of 8.9%, exceeding $52 during the week. The naphtha-Brent spread narrowed sharply to US$81 at the beginning of the week and then widened again, to US$101.5 last Friday. The naphtha-WTI spread had the same trend, narrowing sharply to US$108 at the beginning of the week and then widening again, to last week. Five for around $129. The price of PX (cfr China) rose sharply last week following crude oil, reaching US$693/ton as of last Friday. The operating rate of PX China dropped sharply, and the operating rate in Asia dropped slightly. The PX-NPT spread significantly widened to more than US$180 last week, and as of last week 5 narrowed slightly to $180.
2 Cost and profit changes
Oil-based ethylene glycol spot The average internal price rose sharply to more than 4,400 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, and fluctuated within a narrow range during the week, reaching 4,420 yuan/ton last Friday. The spot price near coal production rose sharply to 4,150 yuan/ton during the week and then remained stable for many consecutive days. Coal production costs continue to rise, and coal production losses continue to narrow. The cash flow of externally produced ethylene glycol improved at the beginning of last week, but deteriorated again in the second half of the week, with a current loss of US$170/ton. Naphtha-to-ethylene glycol maintains a basic breakeven, making profits during the week, with a profit of US$15/ton last Thursday. Methanol prices have fluctuated this week, and the cash flow loss of the methanol MTO production route has basically remained within 1,600 yuan/ton.
Supply
1 Equipment maintenance situation
PTA domestic installation: Consideration The actual operating capacity of Dushan Energy’s 2.2 million tons unit is 2.5 million tons, so its production capacity of 2*2.2 million tons is adjusted to 2*2.5 million tons. Therefore, starting from January 1, 2021, the PTA production capacity base was revised to 57.63 million tons. The 4.5 million ton unit of Fuhua Industry and Trade will be inspected from 12.23 and is expected to restart around 1.20; the 350,000 ton unit of Yangzi Petrochemical will be shut down from 11.3 and the restart is to be determined; the 1.25 million ton unit of Ineos (formerly Zhuhai BP) will be temporarily shut down at the beginning of the month and will be restarted on 1.6; Sichuan The 1 million ton device was parked near 12.28 and restarted on 1.5. The current load is 90%; Han.The 2.2 million-ton petrochemical unit was operated at reduced load from 1.6% to 1.7% and was shut down for maintenance from 1.7%. Under the new capacity base, the PTA load is 82.9%.
Table 1: PTA’s recent major device changes
Data source: CCF Zhongzhou Energy and Chemical Research Institute
Ethylene glycol unit: Starting from December 2020, the CCF MEG production capacity will be revised up to 15.835 million tons, the total coal-to-ethylene glycol production capacity will be revised up to 5.99 million tons, and 200,000 tons of Henan Energy Yongcheng Phase II and Xinjiang Tianye will be added 600,000 tons. As of January 7, the overall operating load of domestic ethylene glycol was 63.09% (increased), of which the operating load of coal-based ethylene glycol was 49.08% (decreased). Total domestic supply rebounded. Yangzi BASF’s 340,000-ton unit has a slight reduction in load to 50-60%; Henan Coal Mining (Puyang)’s 200,000-ton unit will be shut down at 12.20 and is planned for 20 days; Far East United’s 500,000-ton unit has a slight increase in load to 50-60%; Zhejiang Petrochemical’s 75 The load of the 10,000-ton unit was increased to around 70%; the 400,000-ton unit of Inner Mongolia Xinhang Energy unexpectedly stopped near the 2nd, restarted on 1.8, and is expected to discharge materials on 1.9; the 500,000-ton unit of Zhongke Refining shut down due to a fault on 12.30, and restarted smoothly on 1.4. Currently operating normally; the 300,000-ton unit of Qianxi Coal Chemical Industry has been increased from 60% to full capacity.
Maintenance plan: Fude Energy plans to perform maintenance for 10 days in January; Maoming Petrochemical’s 120,000-ton unit maintenance plan is postponed to 2021.
Table 2: MEG’s recent major device changes:
Data source: CCF Zhongzhou Energy and Chemical Research So
2PTA inventory
PTA-converted total social inventory rose again last week, with warehouse receipts continuing There was a sharp rebound, with PTA factory inventory and polyester factory raw material inventory both declining slightly. Circulation inventories still declined significantly last week.
3 Ethylene glycol imports and port inventories
As of January 4, 2021, East China The MEG port inventory in the main port area is approximately 817,000 tons, a decrease of 35,000 tons from the previous period. The arrival forecast last week was 177,000 tons, but the actual arrival was 103,000 tons. The shipping schedule was postponed. The arrival forecast last week was about 232,000 tons. Deliveries are neutral during the week, and a slight destocking may continue on Monday.
Demand
1 Polyester
1.1 Polyester operating rate and device changes
From January 2021, an additional 250,000 tons of Baihong will be added. At the same time, taking into account that several units with a total of 1.46 million tons have been suspended for a long time or are determined to withdraw from the market, after recalculation, the polyester production capacity base has been revised to 61.99 million tons. Maintenance equipment was opened last week. As of last Friday, preliminary calculations indicate that the comprehensive domestic polyester load is 91.7%. At the end of the year, we pay attention to the plan to reduce factory production shutdowns during the Spring Festival. This year, there is an obvious characteristic that the peak season is slow and delayed, and the off-season is not slow. The latest polyester maintenance plan shows that from January to February (the part that starts stopping in January and restarting in February), the polyester production loss involved is approximately 307,200 tons, corresponding to 266,000 tons of PTA demand and 110,000 tons of MEG. need. The polyester production capacity involved in this part of the overhaul accounts for 7%. Currently, the polyester production capacity is 91.7%. That is to say, the polyester production capacity has basically reached 84.7% by the end of January. By mid-January, it has dropped by almost 3.3%. The polyester production capacity has basically started at 88.4% in the middle of January. Year-on-year It was higher than the same period last year.
Table 3: Recent major changes in polyester equipment:
Data source: CCF Zhongzhou Energy and Chemical Research Institute
1.2 Polyester inventory and profit
As of last Friday, Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester factory POY , FDY, and DTY equity inventories were at 6.6, 10.2, and 9.7 days respectively, all slightly destocked. Currently, all polyester products are profitable. Polyester staple fiber stocks dropped sharply to -6 days. The average inventory of polyester bottle flakes remains around 20 days. The inventory of polyester staple fiber remains at the lowest level in the same period in the past; the inventory of polyester bottle flakes still maintains the highest level in the same period in the past, the same level as the same period in 2020; the inventory of polyester filament is basically at the balanced low level in the same period in the past. There is not much pressure on polyester stocks.
2 Terminal Situation
Last week, downstream processing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang started to increase slightly Improved, looms decreased slightly, printing and dyeing maintained. The previous part of the power cut and load reduction has recovered, and the operation of texturing has increased slightly to 90%; sporadic workers have returned home early, and the operation of looms has dropped slightly to 79%; the operation of dyeing plants has remained at 84%.
The inventory days of gray fabrics in sample enterprises in Shengze area recently dropped from 41 days to 40 days and then rose again to 40.5 days, which is still the highest level in the same period in previous years. The average monthly transaction volume of China Textile City dropped by 8% year-on-year in November, and increased significantly by 11% in December compared with the same period last year. It is expected to remain at a relatively high level in January.
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The inventory days of gray fabrics in sample enterprises in Shengze area recently dropped from 41 days to 40 days and then rose again to 40.5 days, which is still the highest level in the same period in the past. .The average monthly transaction volume of China Textile City dropped by 8% year-on-year in November, and increased significantly by 11% in December compared with the same period last year. It is expected to remain at a relatively high level in January.</p
