On January 11, ICE futures fell deeply during the session. The U.S. Congress will impeach President Trump, which caused the U.S. dollar index to surge, causing shocks to the stock and commodity markets. The U.S. Dow Jones Index and commodity futures fell sharply.
It is reported that some members of Congress have publicly stated that Trump should resign immediately, but the other party has still not taken action. Market participants also don’t understand why Trump’s impeachment would be beneficial to the U.S. dollar index, but that’s what happened. From a technical perspective, there is indeed a need for a technical rebound after the US dollar index is oversold, so short positions began to be closed last Friday. But in the later period, traders believe that the government’s increase in taxes and unlimited money printing will cause the dollar to fall again.
On that day, cotton traders settled their positions before the USDA report was released. Although the market expects that U.S. cotton production will continue to decrease, and U.S. cotton inventories will also decline accordingly, the key to the problem is the specific reduction in U.S. cotton production. USDA’s US cotton production forecast last month was 15.95 million bales, and the market’s average forecast for this month was 15.66 million bales.
The latest CFTC position report shows that funds bought a net 2,283 lots last week, and their net long position increased to 70,712 lots.
On the 11th, ICE futures fell nearly a hundred points during the session, but rose strongly in late trading and closed higher. Last weekend’s U.S. political news caused the Dow Jones Index to plummet, prompting bulls to withdraw from the market and wait and see, but traders then began to pay attention to Tuesday’s USDA monthly report, which helped cotton prices recover their losses. Analysts believe that if the USDA forecast fails to surprise the market, short-term market factors may indicate an adjustment in cotton prices. </p
