Introduction
During this round of price adjustment cycles, the international crude oil market has shown an overall upward trend. OPEC finally reached an agreement to reduce production, Saudi Arabia took the initiative to significantly reduce production, and U.S. crude oil inventories fell more than expected. Forming positive support for the crude oil market, WTI and Brent prices have pushed up, boosting the domestic refined oil price adjustment window from being stranded to raising expectations.
During this round of price adjustment cycles, the international crude oil market has shown an overall upward trend. OPEC finally reached an agreement to reduce production, Saudi Arabia took the initiative to significantly reduce production, and the U.S. crude oil inventory fell more than expected, all of which have a negative impact on the crude oil market. With positive support, WTI and Brent prices have pushed up, boosting the domestic refined oil price adjustment window from being stranded to upward adjustment expectations.
Data source: Jin Lianchuang
According to Jin Lianchuang’s calculations, as of the 11th, the sixth The change rate per working day is 3.49%. The average price of the reference oil type is 53.1 US dollars. The corresponding gasoline and diesel should be increased by 115 yuan/ton. There are still four working days before the opening of this round of price adjustment window. According to the current crude oil futures price estimate, the final increase will be The range is around 150 yuan/ton, and the refined oil market is more likely to rise for the fifth consecutive time.
From the perspective of the domestic wholesale market, with the strong push up of crude oil prices, major operating units in various regions are more enthusiastic about pushing up prices, and the market has an obvious profit mentality; in the local refining market, last week due to The temperature dropped sharply, which hampered refinery shipments. However, as the cold wave ended, refinery shipments returned to normal. Buoyed by the good news, gasoline and diesel prices fluctuated higher. We are in the off-season of demand, and the domestic epidemic situation has worsened. The operating rate of enterprises in Hebei and surrounding areas has been hindered. In addition, as the Spring Festival approaches, some enterprises have stopped working one after another. The oil consumption rate of enterprises and construction units such as infrastructure projects has dropped significantly, and the diesel market has been sluggish. , prices are under pressure to rise. In the gasoline market, due to the high car travel rate, the main business and local refining companies are mainly pushing up.
The international crude oil market has continued its strong upward trend recently. However, due to the recurrence of the epidemic in Europe, which has triggered concerns about global fuel demand, crude oil prices have shown a technical correction, but the room for decline is expected to be limited, news This will continue to benefit the domestic oil market. In terms of resource supply, no major or local refineries have maintenance plans in the short term, and the supply of gasoline and diesel resources is relatively sufficient. The demand in the gasoline market is stable, and the cautious bullish attitude of the industry remains. Traders cover their positions at dips, and the trading situation is acceptable. However, in the diesel market, due to the reduction in demand from end-user oil units such as outdoor infrastructure, logistics and transportation, the sluggish trend of the diesel market is difficult to change. To sum up, the supply fundamentals are still weak, and it is expected that the domestic oil market will maintain a steady trend of rising gasoline and diesel prices in the short term. </p
