Introduction: After the previous round of rise, ethylene glycol gradually entered a range-bound trend. Judging from the disk, it reached a high of 4,500 at the beginning of the month and then declined. After four days of consolidation, it once again reached a high of 4,500. This time ethylene glycol rushed Why does Gao arise?
Ethylene glycol has had a good start after New Year’s Day, with term prices soaring. In recent times, cost drivers have played a role that cannot be underestimated as the bottom support for ethylene glycol. In addition, supply and demand The blessings from the public have even further contributed to the situation. At present, port inventories continue to decline, the commissioning of new equipment is less than expected, the supply side is temporarily under little pressure, and the downstream polyester end construction is still supported at a high level. In the first quarter, it seems that foreign equipment maintenance is intensive and mostly concentrated in the United States, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia. , the import increase may be limited. Driven by this sentiment, the current price of the next period will increase simultaneously.
Cost drivers are still strong
Thanks to the continued production cuts by OPEC+ and the positive effects of Saudi Arabia’s additional production cuts. Oil prices have been boosted, as well as the unexpected reduction in U.S. crude oil storage, and Saudi Arabia’s additional production cuts will accelerate the unloading of oil stored in offshore tankers, and may further clear the storage with the support of strong demand in Asia. Crude oil prices have stabilized at the 50 mark, and cost has become a strong backing for ethylene glycol. Driven by costs, ethylene glycol is easy to rise but difficult to fall.
Benign support from the supply and demand side
Domestic construction starts remain at a low level, and overseas equipment is undergoing maintenance in the other quarter It is still relatively intensive, and there will not be a surge in import volume in the short term. Due to the intensive port closures some time ago, the unloading speed of cargoes at the port has been slow, and the inventory has continued to decline. The current inventory is moderate. The equipment originally scheduled to be put into operation by the end of the year has been postponed, and the supply pressure is not great for the time being. Although there is a maintenance plan for the polyester terminal before the Spring Festival, the current start-up rate is around 86%, and the demand for ethylene glycol is still supported.
Maintenance status of some foreign devices:
Data source: Jin Lianchuang
To sum up
Cost-driven supply and demand have pushed ethylene glycol to a higher level. Although there are still many new devices put into production during the year, downstream Spring inspection demand is expected to weaken, but under the influence of the bullish market macro atmosphere in the short term, ethylene glycol may maintain strong fluctuations. </p
