Different from previous years, the polyester filament market in December 2020 fluctuated upward under the support of the cost side. The average monthly price of POY150F/48F in December was 5,563 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 7.77%. However, compared with the same period last year, the decrease 20.15%. Although the price of polyester filament has continued to rise since December, the price is still at a historical low. After New Year’s Day, the price of polyester filament continued to rise. However, as the epidemic in many places in China became serious, market confidence was insufficient, and polyester filament also fell into a stalemate. pattern.
Figure 1 Price and profit comparison of mainstream polyester filament models in 2020-2021
Source: Longzhong Information
As shown in the picture above, 12 The price of polyester filament has fluctuated and risen since January. The main driving force comes from the cost end. Raw material prices have increased and polymerization costs have increased. According to Longzhong statistics, the domestic polymerization cost in November was 3,977 yuan/ton, and the polymerization cost in December was 4,335 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase. 9%, while the aggregate cost in the first week of January 2021 was 4,691 yuan/ton, compared with 4,134 yuan/ton in the first week of December, an increase of 13.5%.
In addition to cost-side support, the supply and demand side also has certain support for the trend of polyester filament. In mid-December, news about policies on energy conservation, emission reduction, and power rationing appeared in many places in Zhejiang, such as “Tongxiang launches city-wide dual energy control and coal consumption reduction A-level emergency response”, “Hangzhou promotes energy conservation, and more than 3 people outside the city If the temperature rises above 10 degrees Celsius, the government agencies will not allow air conditioners to be turned on.” “Power outages have begun in factories in counties and cities in Jinhua, Zhejiang Province, and energy conservation and emission reduction have begun.” “Cixi chemical fiber enterprises in Zhejiang will have power cuts for 2 days before the end of this month.” According to verification, for polyethylene As far as the ester industry is concerned, texturing companies have a greater impact. Because texturing machines consume a lot of power, many texturing companies in the region have shut down some texturing machines due to policy influence. Recently, due to the high profit level of texturing yarns, , so the operating load of the texturing machine is mostly above 95%. However, affected by this policy, the startup load of the local texturing machine is expected to drop to around 80%. The power limit period of this policy is from mid-December to the end of the month, and then the power limit will be continued by the government It is still continuing. Wujiang and Taicang areas have recently implemented batch power rationing, so related industries mostly focus on stocking up in mid-to-late December.
Figure 2 Stock comparison of the three mainstream models of polyester filament in 2020-2021
The overall destocking effect of polyester filament companies in December was relatively obvious, which provided a certain positive boost for companies to raise prices. The demand for winter orders has picked up since September this year, and some foreign orders have been transferred to China. Therefore, terminal demand has increased substantially. It is said that the current order arrangement for some flat series models is still relatively tight. And the current price of polyester filament is still at a historical low, so even if the order delivery is completed, companies have certain plans to stock up for inventory. Therefore, the overall trend of polyester filament in December is good, and cash flow has also improved slightly.
Although the market reversed at the end of the year, overall the prosperity of the polyester filament industry before the Spring Festival is not too optimistic, and the overall situation is still in a downward trend. News of “early holidays” have been heard since November, and one after another. Longzhong’s research report shows that there are no official government documents and notices in downstream texturing, weaving, printing and dyeing and other fields. However, considering the uncertainty of the epidemic trend and economic recovery next year, The terminal field is cautious about the market in the first half of next year. At the end of the year, most users have begun to buy at low prices and stock up. Therefore, the early market demand after the year is expected to be difficult to exceed expectations. Therefore, before the Spring Festival, some companies said they would stop work and take holidays in advance.
The domestic epidemic has worsened after New Year’s Day, and the current quarantine period has been extended. Therefore, workers have begun to return to their hometowns one after another. Of course, the local government is also encouraging them to stay in the local area for the New Year, but at present Most workers have a strong desire to return home, so transportation is under great pressure before the Spring Festival. In addition, the risk of another outbreak of the epidemic also increases the uncertainty of returning to work after the Spring Festival. Due to the current recurrence of the epidemic and the increase in cases in many places, downstream users are gradually less interested in making inventory, and there is a downward trend in the market sentiment around the Spring Festival.
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